Opinion - The Korea Times

What next on denuclearization

By Tong KimMore than a month has elapsed since the spectacular collapse of the U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi, and there is no clear indication of how soon diplomacy will be back on track to tackle the issue of denuclearization, which nobody had ever thought would be resolved easily in a short period of time. It is clear at this point that the Trump administration wants to re-engage the North soon as possible and to explore the possibility of a third summit to agree on some steps of progress, provided that they be worthy of another summit. By common sense, President Trump will not repeat at the next summit the offer of the anachronic Libyan model, demanding Kim Jong-un's early unilateral surrender of all North Korean weapons of mass destruction without reasonable rewards. This offer was rejected outright by the North Korean leader in Hanoi. Since an empty-handed return from Hanoi, where he must have been devastated by Trump's decision against his demand for badly needed sanctions relief, Kim Jong-un has been quiet. Although Pyongyang's vice foreign minister, Choe Sun-hui, has expre

Apr 9, 2019By common sense, President Trump will not repeat at the next summit the offer of the anachronic Libyan model, demanding Kim Jong-un's early unilateral surrender of all North Korean weapons of mass destru

Tong Kim

Five-year denuclearization plan

By Tong KimSince the breakdown of U.S.-DPRK summit talks in Hanoi, there has been enough information to conclude the cause of the summit failure and to pin down where the positions of both sides are today on denuclearization.The North blamed Trump's advisers for the failure, especially John Bolton, U.S. national security adviser, who said the accusation was “inaccurate”. It's not clear who it was ― secretary of state Mike Pompeo or Bolton or both ― that persuaded Trump, or Trump himself decided, to walk away from the talks.The Trump administration rejects any incremental step-by-step approach espoused by North Korea. Washington favors an immediate complete denuclearization up front, ratcheting up the sanctions, hoping that the pressure will force the North to make more concessions. It is unknowable how soon the toughening sanctions will render an unbearable tipping point of economic hardship for the North forcing them to give up their self-reliant economic struggle and surrender their weapons of mass destruction. The regime has survived the sanctions so far and will conti

Mar 25, 2019By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Post-Hanoi prospects

By Tong KimThe U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi ended without any agreement, a setback for both parties. This summit was not expected to produce a major breakthrough like a comprehensive package deal toward the complete denuclearization of North Korea. Yet, the setback came as somewhat of a surprise to most people.The essence of the summit failure lay in the fundamental disparity in their approach to negotiations and the mismatch of offers from both sides.From the beginning, the North insisted on a phased, synchronized denuclearization process. The U.S. side recently seemed willing to accept that approach; however, in Hanoi, President Donald Trump apparently sought a “big deal” that would provide an agreed scope and a general roadmap to denuclearization.North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was simply not ready for this kind of deal. He offered verified dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, consisting of more than 300 buildings, in trade for a major lifting of sanctions. Kim's foreign minister Ri Young-ho said the North demanded only a partial lifting, refuting Trum

Mar 10, 2019By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

No timeline for denuclearization

By Tong KimAnother U.S.-North Korea summit will come and go, but the challenge of denuclearizing North Korea won't go away for a long time. Even if a timeline for denuclearization is set in Hanoi this week, which is unlikely, there is no guarantee that it will be enforced on schedule. The second summit will not be the last, regardless of its success or failure. Even critics of U.S. President Donald Trump's handling of North Korea approve the utility of talks for enhancing mutual understanding and avoiding catastrophic conflict. Talk of peace is better than that of war.Trump claims that he has a good relationship with the North. That's not a bad thing. The current situation, even with no actual reduction of security threats, is preferred over the dangerous exchange of belligerent rhetoric during 2017. Trump keeps saying he is in “no rush.” He is not giving up the ultimate goal of final verified denuclearization. At times, Trump sounds as if he would be content with a continuing moratorium on nuclear and missile tests by the North, as long as there would not be a major war

Feb 25, 2019By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Likely outcome of a second summit

By Tong KimU.S. President Donald Trump announced during his State of the Union address last Tuesday that he will meet Kim Jong-un on Feb. 27-28 in Vietnam, without specifying which city will be the venue for his second meeting with the North Korean leader.Some recent reports help understanding of where denuclearization talks stand today. The U.S. intelligence community told a Senate hearing that “North Korea is unlikely to give up all of its nuclear weapons and production capabilities because its leaders ultimately view nuclear weapons as critical to regime survival.”Stephen Biegun, U.S. special representative for North Korea, did not dispute the accuracy of the intelligence assessment but said he was frustrated with “how it was presented and interpreted” in terms of the policy that has to address threats from such information. Biegun made this comment during a speech at Stanford University, before he went to Seoul and Pyongyang to prepare for the summit. His Stanford speech revealed several important indications: (1) The Trump administration is accepting the

Feb 8, 2019By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Diplomacy back on track

By Tong KimThere seems to be two types of reaction to the fait accompli that a second U.S.-North Korea summit will be held near the end of February in a country, already decided on, but to be announced later with more details: cautious optimism and skepticism.These reactions come from a decade-long history of North Korean behavior and the lack of confidence in the North's commitment to denuclearization. Plausible reports that the North is continuing to produce fissile materials and delivery systems, while operating undeclared missile bases, supports the validity of skepticism.The Washington Post warned about Trump's next meeting with Kim Jong-un: “But the danger is that Kim will use a second summit to persuade a gullible U.S. president to yield valuable concessions in return for fool's gold.”On Jan. 23, Kim Yong-chol, Pyongyang's chief negotiator with Washington, reported to Kim on the result of his meeting with President Trump at the White House on Jan 18. According to the North Korean Central News Agency, Kim “expressed great satisfaction” with a personal le

Jan 28, 2019By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Second US-N. Korea summit

By Tong KimWatching North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's recent visit to China, following his New Year address and U.S. President Donald Trump's favorable response to Kim's latest “great” letter, it is reasonable to expect that a second U.S.-North Korea summit appears imminent. South Korean President Moon Jae-in said at a New Year news conference in Seoul that Kim's latest meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping will soon be followed by his second meeting with Trump. Like Xi, who reportedly told Kim that the North and the U.S. should meet halfway to find a breakthrough to the current deadlock in nuclear talks, Moon suggested bolder action by Pyongyang and reciprocal action by Washington.Both parties know what the other side wants. The U.S. demands concrete action on denuclearization beyond Kim's commitment, and the North demands an easing of sanctions before it takes a further step. Absent mutual trust, neither side is willing to blink. On Jan. 6, Trump said at a cabinet meeting that the U.S. was having “a very good dialogue” with North Korea and that a second

Jan 13, 2019By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Rail linking and denuclearization

By Tong KimThe South and the North held a joint ceremony recently in Gaeseong, declaring a renewed agreement to undertake an ambitious railway linking and modernization project to bring about mutual economic benefits, consolidate their peace efforts and hopefully contribute to the process of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.The event reflected Seoul's symbolic determination to implement inter-Korean agreements wherever possible, as it was agreed to have a groundbreaking ceremony by the end of 2018. This project was one of the several elements of agreement in the Panmunjeom and Pyongyang summit declarations along with denuclearization. President Moon Jae-in has envisioned an East Asia railway initiative that will link a trans-Korean Peninsula rail to a transcontinental system in conjunction with Russian and Chinese railways. However, actual work for the project ― that includes a further survey of the rail conditions of the North and a joint modernization plan ― will not begin unless the South is granted special waivers from the sanctions that prohibit shipment to the North mat

Dec 30, 2018By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Continuing hope for peace

By Tong KimApproaching the end of 2018, it may be pertinent to note that some positive progress has been made toward peace on the Korean Peninsula, beyond the maintenance of a negative peace. However, genuine peace is still illusive, as the prospect of complete denuclearization appears uncertain: No progress since U.S. President Donald Trump met with Kim Jong-un in June.Nevertheless, 2018 saw an end to the dangerous exchange of belligerent rhetoric and nuclear threats of the previous year between the United States and North Korea. The North has not conducted new nuclear tests or missile launches for more than a year. Washington is not ready to resume large scale military exercises that threaten the North.Now Kim's return visit to the South is unlikely to happen by the end of the year. Kim's concerns could be several. One more meeting with the South Korean president would not change Washington's demands for concrete steps ― such as a list of nuclear missiles ― and the U.S. is unlikely to produce a “corresponding measure” of either reducing sanctions or offering a peace agr

Dec 16, 2018By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Contending theories on N. Korea

By Tong KimDiplomacy is at a stalemate again on denuclearization, casting more doubt over its ability to pull off an acceptable end state of negotiations. No nuclear talks have taken place since last month. It is not known when there will be a next meeting, while there remain a number of sticking points against moving forward. The North has been avoiding meetings with the U.S. It cancelled a meeting between secretary of state Mike Pompeo and his counterpart Kim Yong-chol scheduled for early November, and it did not respond to a U.S. request to hold another meeting toward the end of November. The prospect of a second U.S.-DPRK summit appears uncertain in the absence of preparatory meetings. In October, Kim Jong-un agreed with Pompeo to set up a working group at an envoy level but the group has not met. In contrast, a U.S. and South Korean working group has met in Washington to make sure that Seoul is not moving too fast in inter-Korean relations ahead of the pace of denuclearization, a new development to the displeasure of the North. In Seoul, Kim Jong-un's return visit now is unlikel

Dec 2, 2018By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Read more

What next on denuclearization

Five-year denuclearization plan

Post-Hanoi prospects

No timeline for denuclearization

Likely outcome of a second summit

Diplomacy back on track

Second US-N. Korea summit

Rail linking and denuclearization

Continuing hope for peace

Contending theories on N. Korea

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