Continuing hope for peace

By Tong Kim

Approaching the end of 2018, it may be pertinent to note that some positive progress has been made toward peace on the Korean Peninsula, beyond the maintenance of a negative peace. However, genuine peace is still illusive, as the prospect of complete denuclearization appears uncertain: No progress since U.S. President Donald Trump met with Kim Jong-un in June.

Nevertheless, 2018 saw an end to the dangerous exchange of belligerent rhetoric and nuclear threats of the previous year between the United States and North Korea. The North has not conducted new nuclear tests or missile launches for more than a year. Washington is not ready to resume large scale military exercises that threaten the North.

Now Kim's return visit to the South is unlikely to happen by the end of the year. Kim's concerns could be several. One more meeting with the South Korean president would not change Washington's demands for concrete steps ― such as a list of nuclear missiles ― and the U.S. is unlikely to produce a “corresponding measure” of either reducing sanctions or offering a peace agreement.

Kim sees Washington's recent sanctions against three high-ranking North Korean individuals based on human rights abuses as a hostile act contrary to the Singapore agreement by which Trump promised to seek new relations and a peace regime with North Korea. He knows that Trump, despite his advisers' reluctance, wants to hold a second meeting with him sometime early next year. He also understands what it would take to hold a second summit. The question is what he will gain from it.

In his coming New Year's address, an annual policy guidance on domestic and foreign affairs, Kim may say some encouraging words. To the domestic audience, he may again go over a list of accomplishments by his party and the people in the fields of economy and science. He may also hail improved inter-Korean relations ― for security and economic cooperation ― as a great deed for all Koreans.

However, Kim is not expected to announce a new decision to accept the U.S. demand for full denuclearization while Washington will keep all sanctions in place. He will not accept the concept of benefits that will come only after denuclearization. He may yet renew his conditional commitment to denuclearization that he has made, contingent upon reciprocal actions from the U.S.

If Kim orders the suspension of the on-going production of nuclear weapons and missiles, by claiming that he now has enough for nuclear deterrence, just as he claimed last year when he ordered a halt to further nuclear and missile tests, it would be helpful to eliminate the concerns in Washington that it is hard to believe Kim's commitment to denuclearization, while expanding his nuclear arsenal.

President Moon Jae-in seemed to be genuinely hoping for a return visit by the North Korean leader before Kim meets with Trump again. He wanted to declare an end to the Korean War this year, as he and Kim agreed in April. Now, it is not even clear with whom Kim will meet first. Prior to a second summit with Trump, Kim may want to see Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin to secure their support.

Pyongyang has a sizable group of experienced researchers and diplomats who spend their lifetime careers studying U.S. affairs. One of their areas of interest is the dynamics among Washington players and their relationship with the president.

Recent reports on Trump's legal and political troubles should not be good news to the North Koreans. They have learned how the U.S. government works. They know no other U.S. president ever praised their leader and made a top-down decision to tackle the 70-year-old issue of hostile relations. They may still hope that Trump can make another unprecedented move to negotiate with them as an equal in synchronized phases of action toward denuclearization, and to accommodate North Korea as a normal state.

At this point, neither North Korea nor the United States is saying that they have given up hope for achieving the goal of a denuclearized Korean Peninsula and improved relations between them and a durable peace regime on the peninsula.

In the meantime, North Korea can do something to keep the hopes of peace and an improved economy for its country. Stop expanding its nuclear arsenal. Invite inspectors to the destroyed nuclear test and missile launch sites. Restrain from saber rattling. Minimize anti-American propaganda. Make goodwill gestures ― through cultural or sports exchanges. If the North does these at this stage, we will have a better hope for peace in 2019.

Tong Kim (tong.kim8@yahoo.com) is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Corean-American Studies.