Opinion - The Korea Times

Predictable and unpredictable

By Tong Kim It was predictable that North Korea would, and it did, turn down President Lee Myung-bak’s offer of a conditional invitation to Kim Jong-il to attend the next Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) to be hosted by Seoul in March 2012. The conditions required Pyongyang to make a ``firm and sincere” commitment to denuclearization credible to the international community and to apologize for its attacks last year on a South Korean warship and Yeonpyeong Island. Regarding the first part of the conditions, Pyongyang had made commitments to denuclearization in 1991, 1994 and 2005, but the commitments were carried out only partially before the North publicly discarded them in 2009. There is plenty of blame to go around for the failure in the implementation of the agreements for denuclearization. North Korea still says it maintains the goal of a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. It says it is willing to negotiate conditions for denuclearization. But, Pyongyang’s intent has always been questioned, largely because of its own behavior. Recently, the North Korean leader said in a wr

May 15, 2011By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Variables for 2012 elections

By Tong Kim Of the two major news developments last week ― Jimmy Carter’s visit to the North and the outcome of the by-elections in the South ― I choose the latter to write about, as significant implications arise for the 2012 presidential elections that will influence the fate of the Korean Peninsula. Before discussing South Korean politics, I would make a simple comment on the former American President’s persistent effort to contribute to the resolution of the problems involving North Korea. While his well-intended conveyance of Kim Jong-il’s message was unwelcomed and downplayed as nothing new or not good enough, Carter did add to the current atmosphere of talking the talk with the North. Speaking of Korean politics, the opposition candidates’ victories in three of the four major by-elections have reinforced the proposition that the opposition political forces, if united and compete on a one-on-one basis, can defeat the governing Grand National Party (GNP) in the general elections for the National Assembly and the presidential election in 2012. The outcome of the by-

May 1, 2011By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Prelude to big elections

By Tong Kim Ten days from today on April 27, South Korea will hold by-elections to choose three new members for the national legislature, one provincial governor and several lesser administrative officials including chiefs for six gun (county) and gu (municipal district). Results from these elections may suggest how the two big elections for 2012 ― for the National Assembly in April and the presidency in December ― will be contested between the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) on the one side and the opposition parties on the other side, including the Democratic Party (DP), the Democratic Labor Party (DLP), the New Progressive Party (NPP) and the People’s Participatory Party (PPP). Of the several by-elections, competitions in Bundang, Gimhae, and Gangwon Province are being watched with particular interest, as they are fought on a one-on-one basis between GNP candidates and ``unified candidates” representing all the opposition parties. In Bundang known as a GNP support base, the race between DP leader Sohn Hak-kyu, a former governor of Gyeonggi Province and a presidential

Apr 17, 2011By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Track II diplomacy on N. Korea

By Tong Kim Given Washington’s prolonged policy of refusing to engage Pyongyang, the North Koreans seem to have been more responsive to opportunities for Track II Diplomacy, involving non-government actors of the United States. To open the door to dialogue or to find a breakthrough to a deadlock in dialogue, North Korea has often utilized civilian and even third party channels to send a message to the United States. North Korea is sending scientists, trade specialists and agricultural officials to the U.S. when they are invited by private institutions, including Georgia University, New York University at Syracuse, and University of California at San Diego. In addition, there will be more North Korean groups to visit America in the fields of sports and culture, as American private sponsorships become available. However, while these people-to-people exchanges are helpful to increase understanding and mitigating mutual hostile feelings on a long-term basis, they are unlikely to have any positive impact on the resolution of an urgent need of finding a way forward on the North Kore

Apr 3, 2011By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Tsunami, Japan and Korea

By Tong Kim Japan’s earthquake and tsunami raises an unanswerable question of life and the world. For all human advances in science, none could predict when or where the tectonic earthquake would claim over 7,000 lives and destroy properties in the northeast region of Japan. It is ironic that Japan, one of the most advanced in seismic science that created the term tsunami (meaning harbor wave), became the victim of a tsunami of a magnitude that occurs only once in a thousand years. All the precautionary earthquake-resistant measures for constructions were futile before the power of nature. It is also ironic that Japan, the only country that suffered the terrible consequences of an atomic bombing, is experiencing the grave danger of radiation from the exploded nuclear reactors as a result of the tsunami. At the time of this writing, 300 Japanese nuclear engineers are risking their lives in their desperate attempt to stabilize the level of danger from the damaged nuclear reactors and to keep them from melting down. About 300,000 people have left their homes to flee from the

Mar 20, 2011By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Spot checks on N. Korea

By Tong Kim The repatriation of 27 North Koreans who drifted into the South Korean waters by a fishing boat a month ago had become an issue that may affect the prospects of inter-Korean dialogue that ended with a recent failed preparatory military talk at Panmunjeom. The South was trying to return them to the North through Panmunjeom Friday, but the North declined to receive them unless the South returned all 31 who were rescued by the South in the West Sea. Four of the 31 have chosen to remain in the South, after having been exposed to the high standards of living. The North Korean Red Cross demanded the return of all 31 of their citizens on humanitarian grounds. However, the South’s decision to accept the four North Koreans based on their free intent is arguably justified in humanitarian terms as well. In the past, the North did not take issue with some of its citizens who refused to return to the impoverished North. Implications of the latest repatriation issue is multifold: (1) a continuing flow of defectors may eventually lead to the instability of the Kim Jong-il sy

Mar 6, 2011By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

No solution in sight

By Tong Kim After the breakdown of working-level inter-Korean military talks on Feb. 9, it became more difficult to predict when the North might come back to hold dialogue with the South or if they would at all. Now it is uncertain when the opportunity might come to create the right conditions to resume the long stalled six-party talks, still viewed as the best forum to deal with the North Korean nuclear programs. Apparently, the South Korean delegates were caught off guard when their counterparts walked out on the second day of the talks, because the North had appeared eager to move forward to higher-level talks. Until that point, they had been negotiating an agenda, a timeline and a level of representation for higher-level military talks, but without any agreement. Of the three items for negotiation, disagreement on the agenda turned out to be the main cause for the breakdown. In a ``bulletin” posted on the Korea Central News Agency, the North Korean military said there is ``no need to deal with the South any more, since the South Korean traitor group did not want improv

Feb 20, 2011By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Debate on dialogue

By Tong Kim I am writing this column just days before the holding of working-level military talks between the North and South on February 8. Frankly, I am getting tired of writing about North Korea, as it entails an endless cycle of hope, frustration, and threats, without the prospect of a satisfactory solution. After writing this column for more than five years now, I don’t want to sound like a broken record, telling the same old story. Yet, I keep writing because I think it is important to share objective views on the issue of war and peace that affect the lives of all Koreans. If the scheduled military meeting at Panmunjeom successfully agree on an agenda for defense ministerial talks, it would provide an opportunity to discuss responsibility for the torpedoed ship, the Cheonan, and North Korea’s artillery barrage on Yeonpyeong Island, and to further agree on measures to prevent similar provocations in the future. If minister-level defense talks also succeed, it may lead to the resumption of dialogue between the authorities of both sides to tackle such fundamental issues a

Feb 6, 2011By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Parsing of Obama-Hu summit

By Tong Kim The Washington summit between President Barack Obama of the United States and President Hu Jintao of China on Jan. 19, regardless of U.S. intention, publicly marked the beginning of an era of shared influence, leadership and responsibility by the G2 superpowers over complex regional issues and challenges in Asia. Their cooperation on global affairs would also affect all the nations of the world, which were never interdependent on each other so much before in history. The symbolic frame of agreement coming out of the summit was mutual commitments by the United States and China to cooperate on ``a wide range of security, economic, social, energy, and environmental issues … to promote peace, stability, prosperity, and the wellbeing of people throughout the world.” Of course, the major thrust of discussion at the summit was focused on how to address trade imbalances that affect jobs in the United States. The United States had an estimated trade deficit of $181 billion with China for 2010, while the United States exports more than $100 billion a year in goods and se

Jan 23, 2011By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

From tension to talks

By Tong Kim It is far more comforting to talk about talks than to discuss the dangers of war on the Korean Peninsula. Last year was full of tension and confrontation between the North and South, which culminated in the sinking of the ship the Cheonan allegedly by a North Korean torpedo, an exchange of artillery fire over Yeonpyeong Island, and an ensuing escalation of readiness for war. Perhaps, the tipping point from tension to talks was reached when the North chose not to fire back, contrary to its dire warnings of a nuclear war, in response to the December 20 live fire drill by the South Korean forces. Yet, the South had continued its intense military exercises to assure strong retaliation against future provocations by the North, which had caused concerns in Beijing and Washington that the South might be foolhardy in military confrontation with the unpredictable North. A crack in Seoul’s posture appeared when President Lee Myung-bak started making conflicting comments on North Korea for better or worse during the year-end reports from the ministries of unification and f

Jan 9, 2011By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Read more

Predictable and unpredictable

Variables for 2012 elections

Prelude to big elections

Track II diplomacy on N. Korea

Tsunami, Japan and Korea

Spot checks on N. Korea

No solution in sight

Debate on dialogue

Parsing of Obama-Hu summit

From tension to talks

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