Opinion - The Korea Times

Opposition’s chance for 2012

By Tong Kim The next one month will be a crucial period for South Korean politics. The opposition Democratic Party (DP) will hold a national party convention on Sept. 18 to elect a new leader, on whom the success or failure of DP’s bids for the presidential election of 2012 may depend. President Lee Myung-bak, who changed his presidential staff in the wake of the Grand National Party’s (GNP) defeat in the June 2 local elections, has announced several new cabinet nominees, all subject to confirmation by the National Assembly. The GNP’s decisive victory in the July 28 by-elections virtually handed the President a vote of confidence to run the government without worrying about an early lame duck phenomenon for the second half of his term. This was an ironic result of the DP’s inept campaign strategy, by which its leadership had expected the voters to rally against the Lee government for the second time, without offering competitive policy options that would make a difference. The people who had voted to punish the GNP in the local elections turned around to disapprove t

Aug 9, 2010By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Response to NK provocation

By Tong Kim Last week’s first-ever “2+2” meeting attended by the foreign and defense ministers of South Korea and the United States was the culmination of a joint allied response against North Korea’s attack on the Cheonan warship. The meeting added teeth to the recent U.N. Security Council statement, which did not impose any new sanctions nor explicitly condemn North Korea. The “2+2” talks produced two outcomes: a symbolic U.S. commitment to the alliance and the announcement of new U.S.-ROK military exercises and additional U.S. financial sanctions on the Pyongyang regime. Through a joint statement and their visits to Panmunjom and the Korean War Memorial, the four ministers demonstrated ample solidarity and commitment to “deter and defeat” North Korean threats. The “2+2” meeting appeared to be a timely and successful practice of declaratory diplomacy, backed by a show of force, although the meeting had been arranged to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the Korean War, prior to the occurrence of the Cheonan incident. The U.S. commitment to South Korea’s defense cann

Jul 25, 2010By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Deciphering UNSC statement

By Tong Kim The U.N. Security Council (UNSC) adopted a presidential statement on the Cheonan incident on July 9, which fell far short of meeting Seoul's initial expectation of a stronger and clearer condemnation of North Korea for attacking the South Korean ship. The statement did not blame North Korea directly. The statement was much nuanced and balanced that Seoul and Pyongyang respectively claimed each was vindicated. Pyongyang appears to be more pleased than Seoul with the UNSC statement. Nevertheless, the Security Council called for both Koreas to take ``appropriate and peaceful measures against those responsible for the incident aimed at the peaceful settlement of the issue." Again, ``those responsible" were not identified in terms of nationality. Seoul had hoped for a U.N. demand for North Korea's apology and punishment of those North Koreans responsible for the sinking of the ship The UNSC statement seems to have been based on shared concerns between China and the United States ― albeit they increasingly compete more openly in the region ― that escalation of tensi

Jul 11, 2010By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Military, diplomatic strife

By Tong Kim This year's 6/25 marks the 60th anniversary of the North Korean attack on the South, which started a tragic fratricidal war that ended after claiming a couple of million lives yet without a clear winner and with the division of the peninsula remaining. The biggest lesson of the Korean War still stands today: there should never be another war. Since the conclusion that the Cheonan corvette was torpedoed by North Korea, there have been some concerns about the possibility of more military provocations from the North. Many believe neither side can afford to let a second all-out war break out despite the continuing exchanges of belligerent rhetoric and hostile actions. The North Korean leadership understands that a renewed war would lead to an end of its regime. President Lee asked the North to stop provocations for ``coexistence and co-prosperity," but the North does not trust him. Lee had also said he is ``not afraid of war but does not want it." Some argued that military retaliation should not be excluded as a punishment against the North. Their rationale was, ``O

Jun 27, 2010By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

New Challenges for Lee

By Tong Kim Korea Times Columnist Since the ``beef candle demonstrations” of 2008, President Lee is facing perhaps the most serious challenge in political, military and diplomatic terms. Even before deciding what to do about the aftermath of the Grand National Party’s (GNP) defeat from the local elections, and before the government’s evidence of the Cheonan’s sinking is fully accepted at home and abroad, with China and Russia still reserving their assessment of the evidence, the Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) _ a similar organization to the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) _ announced a shocking investigation result to discredit and denigrate top military leaders _ including the Chairman of the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff and navy admirals who were directly involved in the initial response to the Cheonan incident. The BAI accused the military leaders of having filed a delayed false report to their superiors after the ship was attacked by a torpedo, which tore up the ship into two, killing 46 sailors. According to the BAI, they distorted facts in an attemp

Jun 13, 2010By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

What to make of current crisis

By Tong Kim A security crisis ― perhaps the worst one in decades ― has erupted on the Korean Peninsula following the delivery of a decisive guilty verdict against North Korea for the sinking of a South Korean corvette. Tensions are escalating as a vehement exchange of provocative threats and actions continues between the North and the South. People are coming to think of an unthinkable outcome: a second Korean War, which nobody wants. The diplomacy of dialogue also sank. Today people do not talk about the six-party talks or the denuclearization of North Korea. Instead, they talk about whether the North Koreans would carry out their threats in reaction to Seoul's strong measures ― although some of them are prudently enforced. Would the Korean People's Army (KPA) ``target and destroy" South Korean psychological operations loud speakers if they start broadcasting in the DMZ, as the KPA said it would? Seoul's posture is resolute: in the event of such an attack, the South would response in self-defense, not an expression of an equivocal intent to employ military retaliation. I

May 30, 2010By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

No dialogue, no hope

By Tong Kim Since the sinking of the ROK navy ship Cheonan, any chance of dialogue with North Korea, multilateral or inter-Korean, has quickly evaporated. A final investigation report of the incident will be released soon, possibly as early as this week. But, few experts expect the investigation to result in a smoking gun conclusion, beyond the identification of the torpedo used in the attack and perhaps circumstantial evidence supporting the involvement of a North Korean submarine. Having witnessed several previous acts of terrorism by the North, it would be no surprise if the North turns out to be the perpetrator. The Seoul government seems to have assumed early on that the North was responsible for the tragic incident, although it has not yet formally announced such a conclusion. Conservatives in Seoul and Washington share the same stance to demand a tough reprisal against the North. Washington's position was more cautious at the beginning. Washington supported Seoul's investigation, while putting a hold on the six-party talks and closely observed Kim Jong-il's recent

May 16, 2010By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Investigation of the Cheonan

By Tong Kim While no hard evidence has yet been discovered for the explosion that sank the ROK Navy corvette Cheonoan many now point to North Korea as the culprit. There is plenty of circumstantial evidence to support the accusation. When the investigators determined that the ship's sinking was caused by a ``non-contact underwater explosion'' of a torpedo, North Korea instantly became the prime suspect, because ``no other country would have done it.'' North Korea has a record of committing violent acts against the South, including two attempts to kill South Korean presidents, first in 1968 and again in 1983, and the midair explosion of a Korean Airliner in 1987. However, in a civilized justice system, a record of past crimes is not accepted as evidence against the accused. Physical evidence would consist of scraps of the exploded torpedo and the identification of the shooter ― either a torpedo boat or a submarine, or the installer of the explosive, if it was a timed mine. A piece of aluminum metal that was found in the retrieved vessel may not be sufficient evidence even

May 2, 2010By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Naval Incident and Denuclearization

By Tong Kim The tragic incident of the ROK navy ship Cheonan ― which took at least 36 lives of the sailors aboard with eight still missing as of Sunday ― has emerged as a new additional factor to delay the resumption of nuclear talks with North Korea. Washington and Seoul have agreed to put off any effort to induce the North's return to six-party talks until after the cause of the incident is determined. This is an understatement of what might follow if it is confirmed that the North was involved. The Seoul government has been very careful not to implicate directly any North Korean involvement in the sinking of the ship after it was ripped into two parts ― the bow and midsection separated from the stern. However, the South Korean media has speculated that the vessel was attacked by a North Korean torpedo. An official investigation team has undertaken the task of producing scientific evidence for the cause with the assistance of experts from the United States, Australia and Sweden. A preliminary investigative report ― that was released after the stern was raised ― held that

Apr 18, 2010By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Talking About Nuclear Talks

By Tong Kim It has been a year since North Korea boycotted the six-party talks in reaction to the United Nations' punitive action against Pyongyang's rocket or missile launch. Since U.S. envoy Stephen Bosworth's visit to Pyongyang last December, Washington has shown no interest in talking to North Korea, waiting for its return to the six-party talks. Pyongyang has vowed not to return to the talks unless Washington commits to the discussion of a peace treaty and the lifting of sanctions. There is no prospect of an imminent breakthrough to the deadlock, except the wishful expectation that Pyongyang may soon blink because of its insurmountable political and economic troubles at home. According to the latest scenario, favored in Washington and Seoul, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il would go to Beijing and announce his decision to return to the multilateral talks in return for China's pledge of further economic aid. Last Saturday morning, there were conflicting news reports about Kim's arrival in Dandong. Yonhap News first reported that an armed train, possibly carrying Kim

Apr 4, 2010By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Read more

Opposition’s chance for 2012

Response to NK provocation

Deciphering UNSC statement

Military, diplomatic strife

New Challenges for Lee

What to make of current crisis

No dialogue, no hope

Investigation of the Cheonan

Naval Incident and Denuclearization

Talking About Nuclear Talks

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