Shrinking Korea: demographic catastrophe looming

By Jun Ji-hye

• Published Jan 4, 2021 4:40 PM KST
• Updated Jan 5, 2021 9:37 AM KST

Country's population falls for 1st time in 2020

By Jun Ji-hye

Korea's population is predicted to drop by half to less than 25 million by 2060 accompanied by a growing number of elderly people, resulting in decreases in the number of those able to fill jobs and serve in the military, according to a forecast by the Korea Economic Research Institute.

This was backed up by the latest census figures released by the Ministry of Interior and Safety, Sunday, which showed that dramatic population changes have already begun as in 2020 the nation's population fell year-on-year for the first time, with deaths surpassing births.

The ministry's data showed that Korea had a population of 51,829,023 as of Dec. 31, 2020, down 20,838 from a year earlier. This marked the first time that the country's population has fallen since 1962 when the country implemented its resident registration system.

Ministry officials attributed the population decline to a record low number of births ― the country reported 275,815 births in 2020, down 10.7 percent from the previous year; while 307,764 people died, a 3.1 percent increase year-on-year.

“The drop in the total birthrate is accelerating, requiring fundamental changes in relevant government policies,” a ministry official said.

The number of births here, which had been in the 400,000 range for 15 years, decreased to below 400,000 in 2017 and to below 300,000 in 2020.

This rapid fall was not a huge surprise, considering the low birthrate of just 0.84 in the second and third quarters of last year. This was far less than a world average of 2.4 per woman.

The problem is only expected to worsen as an increasing number of young people have been holding off on plans to get married or have children amid the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, according to a recent report issued by the Bank of Korea.

The report suggested the birthrate would fall to below 0.72 for 2022, which was also forecast by Statistics Korea.

It noted that the impact of COVID-19 on employment and earnings has been mostly centered on people in their 20s and 30s, and this may have exerted an influence on the decline of marriage and childbirth.

For their part, Korea Economic Research Institute researchers said in their report issued last July that the country's population would more than halve in 2060, with the workforce and conscripts expected to decrease by 48.1 percent and 38.7 percent, respectively.

This would increase the burden on young people to look after the growing number of the elderly.

Being aware of such serious population problems, the government has implemented various policies aimed at encouraging childbirth and preparing for an aged society, additionally vowing to inject 196 trillion won ($181 billion) by the end of 2025, including 36 trillion won this year.

Most of the policies are cash handout programs, including support of 3 million won to a woman giving birth.

Experts say, however, that there is a limit to what cash support can do to encourage childbirth, citing that the government has already spent nearly 200 trillion won in bids to resolve the low birthrate since 2006, but to no avail.

They pointed out that a paradigm shift in relevant government policies is necessary, saying that the matter is also related to unemployment and the lack of job stability as well as housing market instability.

“Elderly people are expected to account for more than 40 percent of the population in the future, and this could lead to a crisis in society and serious implications for the economy,” said Lee Sam-sik who heads Hanyang University Institute on Aging Society. “The government should make thorough preparations for these uncertainties.”