New party faces daunting obstacles

By Jun Ji-hye

The road toward forming a new coalition party involving the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) and Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo’s camp is strewn with potential landmines.

Analysts say that among the major challenges are how the two camps _ which have a vast difference in the number of legislators (126 to 2) _ can integrate into one party, and whether there will be a plunge in approval ratings for independent lawmaker Ahn.

After DP Chairman Kim Han-gil and Ahn agreed earlier this week to form the coalition party by the end of this month to take on the ruling Saenuri Party in the June 4 local elections, the two camps started to discuss details of the merger at joint meetings.

During Wednesday’s meeting, they decided to appoint Kim and Ahn as co-chairmen of the coalition, but the two confirmed they have differences on the merger method, apparently the most significant sticking point in the coalition talks.

The DP wants the two forces to jointly create the new party, and then for the party to merge with the DP.

On the other hand, the Ahn camp has asked the leading opposition party to dissolve first, and for its lawmakers to separately join the coalition.

The DP is opposed to the dissolution because it means that it will have to give up government subsidies estimated at about 12.7 billion won ($11.8 million) as well as its parliamentary seats allocated to 21 representatives elected through the proportional representation system.

Ahn's side suggested an alternative at a meeting, Thursday. It proposed that the creation of Ahn’s New Political Vision Party first be completed, and to then merge it with the DP.

Work on Ahn’s new party, which he had planned to launch within the month, has been put on hold following the two leaders’ agreement to create a new united party.

“The political party’s breakup could cause unexpected problems,” said Kim Hyo-seok, Ahn’s representative on the task force. “We are thinking about completing the New Political Vision Party and then absorbing the DP.”

What the Ahn camp is concerned about is its camp being taken over by the DP.

Shin Yul, a professor of political science at Myongji University, said, “Continuous conflicts in the merger talks could lead to the collapse of both sides. They are expected to make some concessions to each other in the end.”

Approval ratings

A possible fall of Ahn’s approval ratings will likely pose another headache.

DP members are apparently expecting Ahn’s popularity to help improve its standing with the public.

Recent opinion polls show that the coalition is narrowing the gap with the ruling party.

However, when asked whether they support the coalition decision, respondents took an ambivalent attitude. In a survey by the daily newspaper the Joongang Ilbo, 42 percent said the two forces made the wrong decision, while 37.9 percent said they liked it.

Shin said this shows that centrist and conservative supporters of Ahn may oppose his decision.

“These voters may possibly leave for the governing camp in the local elections,” said Shin. “Also, there are those who tend to hate the DP and the legacy of late President Roh Moo-hyun among Ahn’s supporters. These people will possibly remain as swing voters.”

Yoon Hee-woong, Min Consulting’s head of public opinion research, echoed this, saying, “Minimizing the number of his supporters who might leave is one of the most important tasks facing Ahn.”

Kim Sung-sik, former lawmaker of the Grand National Party (now Saenuri Party), declared on Thursday that he will leave the Ahn camp, indicating that he was shocked by the decision to form the coalition.