By-elections may spark political upheaval

By Kim Se-jeong

The April 27 by-elections will have different meanings for the ruling camp and opposition parties.

The ruling Grand National Party (GNP) seeks fresh momentum for the conservative government’s reform drive to create a psychological boost for President Lee Myung-bak.

With Lee’s single five-year term to end in February 2013, a victory will also be crucial in preventing him from becoming an early lame duck and extending the conservative rule down the road.

That’s the worst-case scenario for the main opposition Democratic Party (DP).

The DP regards the by-elections as a confidence vote on the Lee administration, which has been under fire for a series of policy failures recently.

The deepening conflicts over the government’s cancellation of a plan to build a major airport in the country’s southeastern region as well as its plan to choose the site of a science-business belt bodes ill for the ruling camp.

Whatever the result, the elections could change the landscape of the political circles. And that’s why most observers call the by-elections a litmus test for the general elections and the presidential election, both scheduled for next year.

At the upcoming elections, a total of 38 seats are up for grabs, among which three districts are gaining particular attention: Bundang B, Gimhae and Gangwon Province.

Voters in Bundang B and Gimhae will elect a lawmaker, and voters in Gangwon Province will elect a governor.

Bundang B in Gyeonggi Province is believed to be the fiercest race.

The seat became vacant in October last year when Yim Tae-hee resigned to enter Cheong Wa Dae as presidential chief of staff.

DP Chairman Sohn Hak-kyu will run against Kang Jae-sup, former chairman of the conservative GNP.

Sohn declared his candidacy on March 30, which prompted the ruling party to elect a candidate to counter him.

Sohn’s political future is at stake.

If he wins, it will pave the way for him to run for the presidential election next year. If he is defeated, it will deal a severe blow to his political career, including an end to his political leadership within the DP.

Bundang B, a district on the outskirts of Seoul, has 480,000 registered residents, the majority of whom are conservative.

The gubernatorial race in Gangwon Province is a contest between two former MBC presidents.

The GNP’s Ohm Ki-young was MBC president between 2008 and 2010, whereas the DP’s pick Rep. Choi Moon-soon was Ohm’s predecessor, serving between 2005 and 2008.

The post became vacant this year, when then Governor Lee Kwang-jae of the DP was convicted of violating election laws.

The construction of a nuclear power plant in Samcheok is a hot issue in the province. The GNP favors it as do the majority of local constituents, whereas the DP opposes it.

Rep. Park Geun-hye, former party chairwoman, and Rep. Chung Mong-joon, also a former chairman, have made frequent appearances in the region, showing the GNP’s keen interest there.

In Gimhae of South Gyeongsang Province, opposition parties have agreed to field a unified candidate against Kim Tae-ho of the GNP who served as South Gyeongsang Province governor.

The People’s Participation Party (PPP), led by Chairman Rhyu Si-min, the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) led by Rep. Lee Jung-hee and the DP agreed Friday to conduct an opinion poll to decide on a candidate between Lee Bong-soo of the PPP, Kwak Jin-up of the DP and Kim Geun-tae of the DLP.

The opinion poll will be carried out this weekend, and the winner is expected to be announced Tuesday.

The National Election Commission requires candidates to register by April 13.

Gimhae, the hometown of late former President Roh Moo-hyun, is presenting a tough challenge to the GNP. Yet Kim’s experience as a former governor in the region is giving him leverage to appeal to local voters.

A talking point in Gimhae is the economy. The city suffers from lack of social infrastructure. In particular, a scrapped international airport project struck a blow against the voters’ hopes for invigorating the economy.

Voters in Suncheon, South Jeolla Province, will also go the polls in the forthcoming election. But the race is drawing little attention as neither the GNP nor the DP are fielding a candidate.