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Will Samsung Electronics' stock price rebound in 2025?
Samsung Electronics' building in Seocho District, southern Seoul, Nov. 17 / Newsis
By Jun Ji-hye
Early entry into 6th-generation HBM market seen as key strategy
Korea’s benchmark KOSPI is struggling, largely due to the poor performance of its top stock, Samsung Electronics, leading to growing attention on whether the company's stock price will rebound in 2025.
The tech giant's stocks closed at 53,200 won ($36), Monday, the last trading day of 2024, down 0.93 percent from the previous session. Compared to the end of 2023, the price has fallen 32 percent.
This contrasts sharply with the performance of Nvidia, the leading AI stock in the United States, which saw its stock price surge 177 percent in 2024. Shares of SK hynix, Samsung’s competitor supplying semiconductors to Nvidia, displayed a 23 percent increase.
Samsung’s stocks briefly surged to 88,800 won in July 2024, nearing the 90,000-won mark, buoyed by second-quarter earnings that exceeded market expectations.
However, concerns began to mount over delays in quality testing for Nvidia’s supply chain, sparking fears that Samsung could be sidelined in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) sector, a key area in the AI era. These concerns sparked a decline in the stock price.
The situation worsened when Morgan Stanley issued a report predicting a "winter" for Korea’s semiconductor industry. Uncertainties escalated due to concerns that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump might reduce semiconductor subsidies.
On Nov. 14, Samsung’s stock price dropped to 49,900 won, falling into the 40,000-won range for the first time in four years and five months.
A smartphone displaying the Nvidia logo is placed on a computer motherboard in this illustration from a file photo. Reuters-Yonhap
Samsung has hinted at the imminent start of Nvidia shipments, but it has not fully alleviated market skepticism.
While the announcement of a 10 trillion won share buyback and confirmation of investment subsidies from the U.S. government have helped recover some of the stock price's losses, it remains stuck in the 50,000-won range.
Amid lowered expectations of the chipmaker’s performance in 2024, forecasts for its 2025 earnings continue to be revised downward.
According to financial data provider FnGuide, the company’s projected annual operating profit for 2025 has been cut by 28 percent to 40.4 trillion won.
Experts predict that Samsung’s stock price will continue to face upward limitations due to declining prices of general-purpose memory semiconductors, driven by weak smartphone demand.
Concerns also include expanded supplies by Chinese companies, potential tariffs under the upcoming Trump administration and a lack of competitiveness in HBM technology.
“The semiconductor downcycle has just begun, and there is a high likelihood that consensus on Samsung’s earnings will be further revised downward. It will take more time for a substantial stock price rebound,” iM Securities analyst Song Myung-seop said.
Kim Dong-won, head of the research center at KB Securities, suggested entering the sixth-generation HBM market early as a key strategy for a clear rebound in stock prices.
“In the near term, Samsung’s stock is expected to fluctuate within a range due to delayed earnings improvements caused by the slowdown in the general-purpose memory cycle,” he said.
“Expanding the supply of HBM3E 12-layer products, early entry into the sixth-generation HBM market and restoring technological competitiveness in advanced processes will serve as future momentum for a stock price recovery.”