Daily infections expected to continue to rise

By Ko Dong-hwan

• Published Feb 16, 2022 5:05 PM KST
• Updated Feb 17, 2022 3:28 PM KST

Korea reported a new high of 90,443 cases Wednesday; gov't to declare new quarantine rules Friday

By Ko Dong-hwan

Korea's daily new COVID-19 infections will continue on an upward trajectory for a while and are highly likely to peak in the weeks to come, some experts forecast Wednesday.

The prediction comes after 90,443 new cases were reported on Wednesday, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). The figure jumped sharply from the previous day's 57,175. The daily figures had been below 60,000 since Feb. 10.

The KDCA predicts that the daily new infection cases will soon exceed 100,000 and could reach somewhere between 130,000 to 170,000 by the end of this month.

The country's total accumulated COVID-19 cases is now at 1,552,851.

The rising trend of infections in the country is different compared to the U.K. and the U.S., according to local newspaper JoongAng Ilbo. While Omicron started spreading in all three countries between late November and early December last year, it took only three weeks for Omicron to become the dominant variant in the U.K. and the U.S. The number of daily new infections in those countries peaked after four to six weeks, hitting over 272,000 in U.K. in December and over 807,000 in the U.S. in January. Afterwards, both countries began to see declines in their daily new cases.

In Korea, however, it took seven weeks for Omicron to become the dominant variant ― thanks to careful social distancing and stringent quarantine regulations that were maintained via the use of the smartphone-based vaccine pass system enabling users' access into restaurants, stores and other public spaces.

According to Oh Myung-don from Seoul National University Hospital's division of infectious diseases, Korea might expect to see its daily new infection numbers peaking around next week, based on trends seen in other countries.

“We will see which pattern Korea will follow in terms of the number of daily new infections by early next week,” Oh was quoted as saying. “We cannot be sure whether the trends in the U.K. and the U.S. will also apply to us. But it is also too early to tell whether Korea will see a different pattern.”

But Choi Jae-wook from Korea University Hospital's preventive medicine division told The Korea Times the daily infections will peak later than next week ― it won't come until late this month or early next month at the soonest.

“It has been almost a month since Omicron became the dominant variant in Korea,” Choi said. “Compared to the U.K. and the U.S., Korea saw much fewer COVID-19 patients because of the high vaccination rate well as number of people adhering to the country's quarantine regulations. Such conditions will delay Omicron about one or two weeks compared to the two countries when the number of daily new infections peaks. Even after the peak, Korea will see daily infection cases decrease at a slower pace compared to the other two countries because of the same reasons.”

A prediction by Chun Eun-mi from Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital's pulmonology division also coincided with Choi's.

“Because Korea had fewer COVID-19 patients (than the U.K. and the U.S.), it will take about six to eight weeks (from when Omicron became the dominant variant in Korea) for daily new infection cases to peak. That would be early to mid-March,” Chun told The Korea Times. “Then the figures will start going down.”

COVID-19 patients in Korea who are in critical condition increased by 313 on Wednesday. The KDCA said the daily number of patients in critical condition is being kept relatively low compared to daily infection cases because of Omicron's nature ― infected people are unlikely to become critically ill. An increasing number of people in their 60s who received booster jabs also contributed to keeping the number of critical cases low.

In addition, 39 deaths were reported on Wednesday, raising the total figure to 7,202 and setting the virus' fatality rate at 0.46 percent.

The government plans to announce new social distancing and other quarantine regulations on Friday as a result of the rising infection cases.

“We have to decide after considering both the spread of Omicron and damage to people's livelihoods coming from tightened curbs that have been around for more than two months,” Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said during a COVID-19 response meeting in Sejong. “I am sorry in many ways to people who have been cooperating. But as we secured hospital beds in advance and expanded at-home treatment, our medical response system has had no problems so far.”

The current cap on private gatherings under the current regulations is six people, and a 9 p.m. curfew is also being imposed on restaurants and cafes nationwide.

While focusing medical resources on high-risk patients, the health authorities initiated an enhanced at-home treatment system recently and have been pushing for a stable supply of self-test kits.

A ban on online sales of at-home test kits went into effect this week. They are only available at pharmacies and convenience stores, with the purchase of such kits restricted to five per person.

“To put it clearly, we have enough test kits for February and March,” Kim said, highlighting that there is no need to buy test kits in large quantities.

Starting next week, the government will supply free self-test kits to kindergartens, elementary schools and elderly care facilities to better protect people at elevated risk.