N. Korea's SLBM test success may render THAAD useless

By Jun Ji-hye

As North Korea is advancing its submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) technology, analysts here are raising questions about the effectiveness of a U.S. anti-missile system scheduled to be deployed in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, next year.

Some say that the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery would not be able to defend the nation if the North’s submarines launch ballistic missiles from waters off the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula, given that THAAD is designed to shoot down North Korean missiles fired from the north.

Pyongyang test-fired an SLBM, Wednesday, that flew about 500 kilometers and splashed down in waters under Japan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (JADIZ) in the East Sea, showed a significant improvement from past tests. Defense officials here are reportedly looking at the possibility that the North will be able to effectively deploy the SLBMs by the end of this year.

Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said THAAD’s AN/TPY-2 radar would be aimed in a northward direction and will only offer a 120-degree azimuth of coverage.

“THAAD will be useless if the North Korean submarines infiltrate South Korean waters to the south and launch an attack from there,” he said. “The North’s latest SLBM launch means the planned deployment of THAAD could be meaningless.”

Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, echoed Kim’s view, saying that it will be almost impossible to respond to the North’s SLBMs with THAAD.

“The limits of THAAD were seen this time,” he said.

Opposition lawmakers criticized the government for “propagating” the defense utility of THAAD.

Rep. Sim Sang-jeung, chairwoman of the minor opposition Justice Party, said, “The government has propagated THAAD as if it is the almighty weapon, but its defense utility has been called into question following the SLBM launch.”

Roh Hoe-chan, the floor leader of the party, said, “THAAD’s reason for being has disappeared.”

Observers say the military should take proper measures to counter new challenges, saying it is almost impossible to conduct surveillance, with the equipment the military currently has, to detect North Korean submarines launching missiles while submerged.

They say the military should promptly establish an underwater “Kill Chain” to detect, identify and preemptively strike incoming missiles launched from submarines.

They also say the nation should develop nuclear-powered attack submarines to strike the North’s submarines before they launch any missiles.

Supporters of developing the nuclear submarines, including Rep. Won Yoo-chul from the ruling Saenuri Party, say these vessels do not have to surface frequently, making them difficult for an enemy to detect. Moreover, they can operate at high speeds for long periods of time.

In response to growing concerns, the military said it will sternly and strongly respond to any provocation by North Korea, noting that it is planning to place five military satellites into orbit by 2022, which will considerably enhance its military surveillance of the North.