China expected to renege on sanctions against North Korea
By Kang Seung-woo
International cooperation on sanctions against North Korea is showing signs of a rift as China has become reluctant to push the North harder as it protests the planned deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea, analysts said Monday.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has yet to issue any statement condemning Pyongyang’s recent ballistic missile tests and the North’s increased military exercises featuring fighters, submarines and other vehicles hint that it still receives a supply of jet fuel in violation of the U.N. sanctions.
Analysts believe that Beijing — one of five veto-wielding permanent members of the council — could be behind the situation in anger over Seoul’s THAAD plan, announced July 8.
China has long opposed the THAAD deployment on South Korean soil, claiming that its radar system could be used to penetrate Chinese territory.
According to sources, discussions on whether to issue a U.N. statement against North Korea’s launches of three ballistic missiles last Tuesday are not making progress amid reports that some UNSC members have expressed opposition to such a move.
They also did not make a statement against the North Korean missile test following its test-firing of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) July 9.
The absence of a statement is in sharp contrast with the U.N.’s swift adoption of a series of press releases in recent months.
The council has issued five statements condemning the North’s provocations so far this year, with its last adopted on June 22 in response to the North’s launch of a Musudan intermediate-range missile. The U.N. resolutions ban North Korea from using ballistic missile technology.
However, the lack of action following the THAAD decision is spurring speculation that China may be refusing to cooperate, angered by the planned deployment of the U.S. missile shield.
China may supply fuel to NK
“Although South Korea and the United States want a fresh statement, possible noncooperation from China and Russia may be responsible for the delay in protest of the decision to deploy THAAD in spite of their opposition,” said Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University. Russia also opposes the THAAD placement in South Korea.
In addition, according to the government, the North Korean military has increased military drills that require the consumption of large amounts of aviation fuel, indicating that China, its main provider of oil, may be supplying the North with fuel for military use despite the embargo on it.
“I speculate that the Chinese military authorities may continuously supply jet fuel to the North because of its traditionally strong ties with the North Korean military authorities,” Chang said, adding that Russia could be another route.
Analysts said that following the THAAD decision, sanctions on North Korea may not gain any momentum due to China’s non-cooperation.
“It will not be easy for South Korea and the United States to draw support from China and Russian for a fresh sanctions resolution if the North conducts a fifth nuclear test in the near future,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute.
“China fully supported the sanctions, imposed in March for the North’s fourth nuclear test, to prevent South Korea and the United States from deploying THAAD here, but now that they have announced the deployment, China is expected to protect the North in response to a trilateral alliance between South Korea, Japan and the United States.”
Chang also said, “Even when the THAAD issue was not center stage, China had served as the North’s lone backer against U.N. punishment. However, the THAAD plan could dampen its support for sanctions.”