Seoul's interception capability in question

By Kang Seung-woo

Military analysts questioned whether the country’s missile defense system can effectively intercept North Korean missiles or their debris straying over South Korean territory, Thursday.

Earlier in the day, the Ministry of National Defense said the military would use its Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-2 low-altitude missile defense system to shoot down any North Korean long-range rocket that came into South Korean airspace.

Pyongyang is preparing to launch an Earth observation satellite between Feb. 8 and 25, but it is widely believed to be a cover for a long-range ballistic missile test because the technologies are almost identical.

“First of all, we will only be able to destroy a North Korean missile or its debris if they are in the sector where the defense system is located,” said Kim Dae-young, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum.

“Currently, the PAC-2 batteries are deployed in some places of the capital area and near airports.”

Park Hwee-rhak, Dean of the Graduate School of Politics and Leadership at Kookmin University, echoed Kim’s view.

“The PAC-2’s interception rate is not high because it is mainly used to shoot down aircraft unlike the PAC-3,” Park said.

The PAC-2 uses a blast-fragmentation warhead that sends debris from an exploded missile into the target, while the PAC-3 is a “hit-to-kill” interceptor that destroys incoming ballistic and cruise missiles by direct impact.

The South Korean military is upgrading its PAC-2 to PAC-3 that will extend its range from 15 kilometers to 30 to 40 kilometers.

Kim also expressed concern that although the military might shoot down a missile in the air, debris from the explosion could trigger secondary damage on the ground because of the PAC-2’s low altitude.

The South Korean defense ministry admitted that the PAC-2 system cannot destroy North Korean missiles completely.

“Although the military cannot intercept the missile or its components 100 percent, it can partly deal with it,” Defense Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun said at a briefing.

The ministry’s statement came a day after the Japanese government ordered its Aegis missile defense warships and Patriot missile batteries to shoot down any parts of the rocket should they stray into Japanese airspace.

Japan, which already uses the PAC-3 system, has held anti-missile exercises in preparation for the North’s launch.

The South Korean military is regarded as having low capability to counter the North’s evolving missile threats, so it is developing the Korean Air and Missile Defense system to be ready by 2023.

The U.S. Forces Korea also wants to deploy the terminal high-altitude area defense system on the Korean Peninsula.