It's Cameron's fault
By David McCrone
David McCrone
It would seem to be a simple proposition to assume that Scots who defined themselves as “Scottish” would vote “yes” in the referendum, and those who called themselves “British” would vote “no.” But all is not what it seems.
Around two-thirds of people in Scotland give priority to being Scottish over being British, and while being Scottish is associated with voting “yes,” it is not a clear-cut association.
To be sure, the minority who give priority to being British are more likely to vote “no,” but there is no simple correspondence between how people will vote and how they define themselves.
Why? Being Scottish is more of a “cultural” than a “political” matter, and while it is true that the more “British” you are, the more likely you are to see your identity as defining your politics, the association is far looser than we imagine it to be.
Then again, the stark choice of voting “yes” or “no” to independence is in many ways an artificial one, forced on Scots by the unionist parties and the British state.
Many Scots would have preferred a multi-option referendum where the options are: independence (supported by one-third); devolution-max (giving the Scottish parliament control over taxation and welfare) supported by one-third; the current status quo (25 percent), and all powers in Westminster (10 percent).
That way, a consensus would emerge around “devolution-max,” possibly as a stepping-stone to independence some time in the future.
So why a yes/no choice? This is to force Scots to choose in the hope that a “yes” vote would fail badly, and the demand for further powers would be off the political agenda for the foreseeable future.
It has not worked out that way. The latest polls suggest that a minority — but more than 45 percent — will vote “yes.” This is likely to strengthen the demand for a more powerful Scottish parliament in the long run, and give Scots the taste for more powers.
The great success of the “no” campaign, ironically, has been to convert more Scots to the cause of independence. As the old saying goes: be careful what you wish for.