Trump's options on North Korea
By Charles L. Olmsted
A recent CNN story titled, “How Trump could go it alone on North Korea” gave three ways American President Donald Trump could bypass China to bring the reclusive nation into line. The story was a preview of the just-completed meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump.
North Korean leader Kim Jung-un did his part by keeping the story near the top for three days later by launching a missile. North Korea did something similar when Japan’s Shinzo Abe visited the White House last month.
“Hey fellas, remember me? I still rule north of the 38th Parallel. Here’s a little something to remember me by,” Kim Jong-un says while planning his next family gathering.
Later in the week, though, the North’s status dropped after Syria’s chemical weapons attack and the American response. Some experts say it was a message to Xi but it was strictly retaliatory and any messages were more toward Russia.
No agreements were reached in the meetings but journalists Katie Hunt and Brad Lendon presented good talking points for us non-politicians. They are talking with North Korea, further isolation of North Korea, and armed conflict.
Trump mentioned a Burger Diplomacy with Kim before but experts think it will take more to get Kim to dispose of his nuclear arsenal. This will be more of a long-term diet.
First, North Korea will break its promises. If the U.S. accepts that (i.e., tolerate it in hopes of a big payout), progress can be made.
Second, even when they keep their word, they will change the words. The North will see it as keeping their word, though.
The U.S. needs to realize that the North will not give up its nuclear arsenal under any conditions. The North wants the U.S. to stop the war games it conducts with South Korea and that will probably never happen. China is afraid the U.S. will move into North Korea which is the biggest reason it props up the Kim regime.
But what would happen if Washington and Beijing agreed that as long as China stays out of North Korea when it collapses, so will the United States? The chances are much better that the two superpowers will keep their word than North Korea.
The second option would be putting sanctions on Chinese companies that do business with North Korea. These would hurt Chinese businesses but does the U.S. want that risk considering they have enough differences already?
China worries about refugees flooding its border if the North collapses. They don’t want them now, which is why they label them “economic migrants” instead of political refugees, the correct UN term under an accord China signed. Again, could the U.S., South Korea and China make some arrangement whereby North Korean defectors be allowed safe passage to the South via South Korean transport?
The third option is armed conflict. Enough said.
But there is a fourth possible option and that’s psychological warfare.
Different groups send balloons filled with leaflets about life and news from South Korea toward the North. One defector even sent news of Kim Jong-nam’s murder in a recent balloon launch. Increase the launches and get the word out more. The Kim regime hates the truth.
Charles Olmsted, a former newspaper writer from Louisiana and Texas, received a master's degree in Asian Studies from Sejong University in 2013. He can be reached at clolmsted@hotmail.com.