Roundtable Korea must build coalition to counter China rise

By Lakhvinder Singh

For more than 60 years the USA-Korea alliance has acted as the bedrock of security not only for Korea but in the entire Asia-Pacific region. It has kept complicated historical legacies in check and provided a strong economic impetus for growth. With overwhelming military strength, it has succeeded in keeping the balance of power for more than six decades.

Lately China has heavily invested in its defense forces. For over a decade its military budget has grown by double digits and now its modernization is affecting this established balance. If this trend continues the day is not far when China will replace the USA as the most powerful military force in the region, enjoying complete naval and air superiority and dominance over all countries.

This shift of power in the region has put smaller counties, like South Korea, in very a difficult situation. They are being asked to choose between the old reliable but declining power, and the new promising but untested friend. Their choice will influence their wellbeing for centuries to come.

Today China is South Korea’s biggest trading partner. Unfortunately, this increasing economic dependence on China has made it vulnerable to Chinese pressure. Any disruption in China-Korea exchanges has serious consequences for South Korea, as demonstrated by the recent THAAD controversy.

To avoid Chinese retaliation, many analysts have suggested that it will be better to jump over to the Chinese camp and enjoy all the benefits that come with aligning with a rising power rather than wait for the declining USA revive its past glory.

Currently South Korea is a full-fledged, functioning democracy that has delivered unprecedented benefits to its society. Aligning with China, which does not believe in the democratic way of life, can disrupt this whole system.

Some scholars have suggested that South Korea can align with China and still can keep its democratic way of life. Unfortunately, it is easier said than done as it is natural for a bigger power to influence the smaller. Just as South Korea’s alliance with the USA led it toward democracy and a free market economy, Chinese governing philosophy will surely influence it one way or another. There is no escape from this iron law of politics. Thus, alignment with China means South Korea may need to rewire its economic, political and social systems. There is no such thing as a smooth transition from a democratic system to totalitarian system without serious disruptions in all aspects of national life.

Furthermore, aligning with China at this stage will have serious implications for South Korean sovereignty and territorial integrity. With American muscle gone, there will not be much it can do against Chinese territorial claims and intervention in domestic matters.

What can South Korea do in this changing scenario? How can it keep its security and economic interests safe? Since South Korea is a small nation with fewer resources than China, it may not be possible for it to stand alone and protects its territorial integrity and way of life. South Korea needs to start building new multilateral security institutions with the help of the other likeminded regional countries, especially those who are equally worried about the post-American uncertainties. Countries like Japan, Singapore, Vietnam and India would be natural partners. Given South Korea’s closer economic ties with China, it could be duly aligned in this multilateral security and conflict resolution mechanism based on the democratic principles of the rule of law and equality of all nations.

Though the USA withdrawal is expected to be gradual, there no reason for Koreans to be apathetic about their security. To avoid the uncertainties of the future, they should start investing today while they still have time. A small window of opportunity may close soon as China reaches its growth peak and starts dictating terms of war and peace. Let us hope the South Korean leadership will rise to the occasion and develop a large regional security perspective which goes beyond the Korean peninsula.

The South Korean people should expect this much from their new leadership.

The writer is the director of the peace program at the Asia Institute in Seoul. Contact parvkaur@hanmail.net.