Korea and possible Trump victory
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By Michael Breen
If, as is looking more certain every week, Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, political leaders from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe will scramble to analyze what his possible victory in November’s US presidential election might mean for their countries.
You’ll start to see them on CNN. Others will take to Twitter or, in North Korea’s case, to Telex.
Such noise, of course, could backfire. Foreigner complaints might push more voters in Mr. Trump’s direction.
How about Korea? Does the prospect of a Trump victory scare President Park Geun-hye enough to get her tweeting?
Good question. From her point of view, the problem with Mr. Trump starts with the fact that, as far as we can tell, he is a man and she isn’t. Of itself, this might not appear remarkable. Most national leaders are men and some are women. However, my inner feminist, who I trust, tells me that Mr. Trump is one of those men who most of us, and women in particular, would find it hard to dissuade from whatever it is he is bent on doing.
One clue is that he appears to have a rather inflated view of himself. He seems to be a person who needs to control others. Whatever they do in life, such individuals always have to be the boss.
This represents a problem for Ms. Park.
She is an altogether different kind of person from Mr. T. I read a column recently by an American academic, Kongdan Oh, who was one of the president’s former university professors and who remembered her as nice, sincere, diligent, and, unlike many of her fellow students, unwilling to cheat. The kind of person you don’t mind being in charge.
People moan, in fact I think I have moaned myself, that she is too secretive, that she needs to come out of her den and communicate more. That’s easy to say. But, put yourself in her slippers: Every time she comes over to the office or some other place where politicians and bureaucrats are gathered, what does she see? Sweaty men looking at her; wanting something, waiting for a plaque, a photo opp, anything to aggrandize themselves, blokes who are old enough to know better still reeking of the whisky from the room salon the night before.
Korean Trumps.
Sure enough, Mr. T will want something from her too. More cash for U.S. troops, a wall along the DMZ that he thinks the North Koreans should pay for. Her best strategy for the last year in office would be to avoid meeting him. But that may be difficult.
Instead she needs to strategize to make sure her presidency doesn’t get soiled by him, as Kim Dae-jung’s was by George W. Bush.
The second reason the Blue House should worry about Mr. T is that it’s not clear what he would actually do if he became president. His policies are not conservative. They’re not Christian. They’re not republican, nor are they liberal or democratic.
In anticipating his presidency, it is important not to be fooled by nervous liberals into assuming he is a crazy ideologue. Some of my friends think a President Trump would set off if not World War Three, at least a second Korean War.
But Mr. T. is a businessman. That means he knows how to negotiate, leverage his strengths and compromise on obstacles. He’s pragmatic.
That’s important. If, for example, he were to insist on a Korean Wall and President Park were to start screaming and yelling, he’d probably hold up his hands, palms out, and say, “Okay. Forget the wall then.”
But it is important to remember that America is a democracy and that, although a president can do a lot, there’s also a lot he can’t do without the buy-in of his own staff, government agencies and Congress.
The danger comes when something unexpected happens that creates acceptance for the extreme reaction. We saw that clearly with the previously mentioned Mr. Bush. An establishment figure, he came into power a known quality as a successful state governor, but even then he surprised us all after the terror attack on U.S. soil by going nuts and invading two countries.
No one saw that coming and had September 11 not happened he would not have been able to do it.
This is instructive. The most important lesson for us now is that, if Mr. Trump is indeed elected, nothing untoward happens during his single four-year term.
And that’s what all the world leaders can do: instead of tweeting, sign peace treaties, deal with your terrorists, focus on your economies and buy American stuff. For Korea, that means stop all shaking the fist at North Korea, get back to an engagement policy and calm things down. Then the Trump years will sail by just fine.
Michael Breen is the CEO of Insight Communications Consultants, a public relations company, and author of The Koreans and Kim Jong-il: North Korea’s Dear Leader.