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Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov was born in St. Petersburg, Russia, and teaches at Kookmin University in Seoul.

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Andrei Lankov

What to expect in 2011?

By Andrei Lankov So, the year 2011 of the Christian era has finally arrived ― and, in accordance to the established tradition, it is time to wonder about what we should expect to happen in the relations between the two Korean states during the next 12 months. Right now, it appears as if the situation, so tense throughout 2010, is beginning to improve. The North has toned down its rhetoric and suggested that talks with the U.S. and South Korea might be a good idea. Actually, over the last two weeks it has virtually showered Seoul and Washington with proposals for talks for improving relations. Does this mean that the recent dramatic round of the never-ending ``Korean crisis” is over? Alas, this is not the case. On the contrary, there are good reasons to expect that a new round in the crisis is about to start. When Pyongyang strategists hope to squeeze some aid or political concessions from other side, they follow the same tactics. First, they manufacture a crisis, and do everything to drive tensions high. The missiles are launched, islands are shelled, and verbal threats

Jan 16, 2011By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Travel permits in N. Korea

By Andrei Lankov The North Korea of the old Stalinist days is gradually dying. In some regards the North is still a Stalinist society, but it is changing even if these changes do not necessarily attract much outside attention. One of the most dramatic transformations of the last year is a great relaxation of the control over movement inside North Korea. Let’s start from how the system used to work in the past. For decades, no North Korean was allowed to leave his or her native county without special travel permit, to be issued by local authorities. The only exception was that a North Korean could visit counties which had a common border with the county where he or she had official household registration. If found outside his or her native county without a proper permit, a North Korean was arrested and then ‘extradited’ back to their native county for appropriate punishment. There had to be valid reasons for issuing a travel permit, unless the person went somewhere on official business. In most cases one had to produce an invitation from relatives for a wedding or funeral or

Jan 2, 2011By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

No revenge is best revenge

By Andrei Lankov The present author has been undertaking North Korean studies (and Pyongyang watching) for 25 years, and is accustomed to the periodic media hype which is produced by news from North Korea. The hype is predictable. Every time the Koreas sign an official document or, perhaps, hold a summit, the international media begins to write about a ``major step towards unification.” Reports about the North Korean regime relaxing its control over markets is bound to produce headlines along the lines of, ``North Korea finally starting Chinese-style reforms.” And, of course, every exchange of fire on the DMZ or NLL is heralded as a sign that this time the ``Koreas are on the brink of war.” Usually, such statements should be greeted with a yawn. No, summits and treaties do not mean that the Koreas are moving towards unification. No, Pyongyang has no intention to reform its economy. No, clashes on the border are either incidents or part of a complicated diplomatic game, but chances for such a clash to develop into a war are zero. Or are they? In recent weeks, for the firs

Dec 19, 2010By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Nothing new in NK leaks

By Andrei Lankov The leak of the classified U.S. diplomatic cables to the website WikiLeaks is, undoubtedly, the major news of the last week. It also might be seen as the greatest diplomatic scandal of all time. North Korea also received its share of attention after the WikiLeaks scandal. Among other things, the leaked cables reveal that the U.S. diplomats discussed North Korea’s future with their Chinese colleagues, and that the Chinese were not only highly critical and disdainful of the Kim’s family regime, but did not make secret their assumption that in the long run it has no future and is bound to collapse. Furthermore, at least some Chinese experts implied that sooner or later Korea would be reunited under Seoul’s control, and were doing their best to ensure that such a unification would not damage China’s interests. These revelations are presented by the media as great sensations. But nobody who ― like the present author ― interacts with Chinese officials and experts regularly is going to be surprised by this news. The Chinese officials and experts have been talki

Dec 5, 2010By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

What can be done against North Korea?

By Andrei Lankov The North Koreans did it again. In March they sank a South Korean warship, which in terms of the loss of human lives was the largest military disaster the South Korean navy suffered in decades. Now, for the first time since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, the North Korean artillery shelled South Korean territory, killing soldiers and civilians. The political motivation behind these strikes is clear: the North Koreans demonstrate that if they are ignored and not provided with enough unconditional aid and other giveaways, they are capable of creating much trouble. There is a public outrage in South Korea, albeit not as much as people unfamiliar with Korean politics would probably imagine ― for many Koreans, such an incident is merely the price to pay for living next to a very peculiar state. At any rate, the public expects the government to do something. Indeed, what can be done? Alas, the frank answer is the same as it was the case after Cheonan sinking last spring ― that is, “nothing.” Indeed, all conceivable actions by Seoul are likely to have n

Nov 28, 2010By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Crack in Orwellian paradise

By Andrei Lankov One of the most important peculiarities of North Korean life is the degree of isolation of North Koreans from entire world. The government does not want them to be aware of some facts which contradict the officially approved picture of the world and their own country. To make sure that propaganda has no competition, the North Korean authorities eliminate all possible sources of alternative information. Few if any Communist countries were as efficient as North Korea in cutting their population off from the unwanted and unauthorized knowledge about the world beyond the nation’s boundaries. Few North Koreans are ever allowed to leave their country. The only statistically large but non-privileged group of people with overseas experience was the Siberian loggers who were sent to the wilderness of Southern Siberia from the late 1960s onwards. However, that part of the world is not famous for a high density population, so their contact with the locals was kept at a bare minimum (and North Korean authorities saw to this). All other groups of North Koreans who w

Nov 21, 2010By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Revival of collapse theory

By Andrei Lankov Recently one cannot help but notice an important change in the mood of Pyongyang watchers ― well, some of them. Over last year one began to hear again talk which has not been heard for 15 years or so ― serious people, many of whom are potential or actual decision makers, once again are discussing the probability of North Korea’s collapse. Back in the early 1990 such a collapse was widely ― almost universally ― expected. Indeed, the communist bloc was falling apart, so it seemed only logical that North Korea, arguably the least efficient of all communist states, would go the same way as East Germany or Rumania. To a large extent, in the early 1990s the U.S. policy towards North Korea was based on assumption that its days were numbered. However, the much anticipated collapse did not happen, and since then the idea of it was discredited, so among the experts talks of collapse came to be seen as a sign of non-professionalism. Only in recent years has this talk begun anew. The reason seems to be clear: the botched 2009 currency reform produced a serious crisis. T

Nov 7, 2010By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Kim Jong-nam ― the failed heir

By Andrei Lankov One of the major sensations widely discussed in the international media in the last few weeks was an interview Japanese TV journalists managed to arrange with Kim Jong-nam, the oldest son of Kim Jong-il. The interview, which took place in Beijing, was interesting, indeed. Kim Jong-nam promised to help his brother who was recently promoted (obviously, to succeed Kim Jong-il in due time), but he also said something unusual for someone in his position. He said that, basically, he opposed the idea of hereditary succession as such. Such a statement, coming from a member of the ruling family, attracted much attention, and people began to talk about a power struggle which is brewing inside the Kim family. It might be premature, though: Kim Jong-nam’s statements might reflect his rather unusual personality and life circumstances. So, who is Kim Jong-nam, what is known about the (rather complicated) family relations of the “Dear Leader” and why does it all matter? Kim Jong-il’s personal life was hectic, as he sired children with a number of women. To give h

Oct 24, 2010By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Aftermath of succession show

By Andrei Lankov So, in late September North Korea’s ruling Korea Workers’ Party (KWP) had its third conference, the first such high level conference to take place in 30 years, since a party congress in 1980. It was an interesting show, so for the next few weeks or months North Korean specialists will be busily analyzing the new information which emerged, as well as the conference significance and its likely impact on the future of North Korea. But one thing should be admitted now: the conference turned out to be not exactly what most people expected (albeit, admittedly, it came close enough). Since congresses and conferences are exceptional events in North Korea, it was widely predicted that this conference was convened to make some extraordinary statements ― otherwise, why would they have it? However, as it turned out, the results of the KWP conference ― while interesting and important ― can hardly be described as extraordinary. Most observers expected that the decision to convene the conference had something to do with a dynastic succession which has begun to unr

Oct 10, 2010By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Rubber-stamping session

By Andrei Lankov So, the third conference of the Korean Workers Party is officially scheduled to open on Tuesday ― at least, this is what the North Korean media reported last week. The conference is expected to announce the new leadership which, at all probability, will include Kim Jong-il’s third son and his likely successor Kim Jong-un. The young man, now in his late 20s, will be formally introduced to the people and, perhaps, formally anointed as a ``genius of leadership, fully capable of continuing the great Juche revolutionary tradition” (I am not sure about wording, but it will be flowery enough). However, why do they need a party conference to have this announcement? Yes, it is true that Kim Jong-il himself was once anointed by a party congress (an enlarged version of a party conference) in 1980. But, on the other hand, when Kim Jong-il’s final promotion to the supreme leadership after his father’s death and three years of mourning took place in 1997, the North Korean autocrats did not bother to hold a conference or congress. The coming conference might be anothe

Sep 26, 2010By Andrei Lankov
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