No optimism on NK nukes
By Andrei Lankov Is the North Korean nuclear problem solvable? If by a solution we mean the oft-repeated demand for North Korea’s ‘verifiable and irreversible denuclearization,’ then the answer appears to be no. The North has no intention of surrendering its nukes, and this stubbornness is based on quite realistic assumptions about North Korea’s domestic and foreign policy situation. North Korea needs nukes as a deterrent against a foreign attack and as a tool for blackmail diplomacy. Both tasks are vital for the regime’s survival, and North Korean nukes are decisively not for sale. Denuclearization might be achieved only when and if the Kim family regime is removed from power. Sooner or later, it is going to happen, since in the long run the regime is unsustainable. However, in this case, the long run itself might be very long indeed. One cannot rule out that the regime will collapse in 2012, but it’s also possible that it will last well into the 2020s or even the 2030s. If this is the case, what can and should be done in the meantime? Now, it seems that decision mak