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Andrei Lankov

Andrei Lankov was born in St. Petersburg, Russia, and teaches at Kookmin University in Seoul.

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Andrei Lankov

No optimism on NK nukes

By Andrei Lankov Is the North Korean nuclear problem solvable? If by a solution we mean the oft-repeated demand for North Korea’s ‘verifiable and irreversible denuclearization,’ then the answer appears to be no. The North has no intention of surrendering its nukes, and this stubbornness is based on quite realistic assumptions about North Korea’s domestic and foreign policy situation. North Korea needs nukes as a deterrent against a foreign attack and as a tool for blackmail diplomacy. Both tasks are vital for the regime’s survival, and North Korean nukes are decisively not for sale. Denuclearization might be achieved only when and if the Kim family regime is removed from power. Sooner or later, it is going to happen, since in the long run the regime is unsustainable. However, in this case, the long run itself might be very long indeed. One cannot rule out that the regime will collapse in 2012, but it’s also possible that it will last well into the 2020s or even the 2030s. If this is the case, what can and should be done in the meantime? Now, it seems that decision mak

Nov 6, 2011By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Talks will resume, but …

By Andrei Lankov Last month representatives of North and South Korea met in Beijing to discuss the resumption of nuclear talks. Currently, it is not clear what the immediate impact of this meeting will have, but few people in the know would doubt that the resumption of nuclear talks is in the offing. But what are these talks about? For the roughly two decades (and these talks in one form or another have dragged on for nearly two decades by now) that talks were conducted, deals made and money paid, ostensibly, to achieve a goal which was described as ``complete, verifiable and irreversible” denuclearization of North Korea. This is a worthy aim, to be sure, but there is one small problem with it: It is unachievable. Under no circumstances will the North Korean government surrender its nuclear program. Actually this has been the case from the beginning, but only now, after decades of efforts, expectations and failures has this simple truth finally been realised by the majority of decision makers in Washington and Seoul. The North Korean nuclear program fulfils three m

Oct 23, 2011By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

NK is no Stalinist country

By Andrei Lankov North Korea is often described as the ``world’s last Stalinist country.” This description has become a cliché but it is misleading: North Korea might keep up outward appearances as a Stalinist regime, but for all practical purposes its society and economy have moved far away from the patterns once pioneered by Joseph Stalin and his henchmen. The last two decades can be best described as the slow-motion collapse of North Korean Stalinism. The North Korean economic model once could be described as an extreme example of the Soviet-style Stalinist economy. Virtually everything was controlled and managed by the state. But the hyper-Stalinist economy could survive in its original form only as long as the Soviet Union and the China were willing to provide it with a steady stream of donations. This support was withdrawn in the early 1990s and the North Korean economy nosedived. Most state-owned industrial enterprises ceased operation, and total industrial output more than halved between 1990 and 2000. For decades, North Koreans lived on rations provided

Oct 9, 2011By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Russia-N. Korea Trade

By Andrei Lankov In mid-August, the armored train of the “Dear Leader,” Marshall Kim Jong-il once again crossed the Russian border. This time, he did not venture far: the summit took place in the city of Ulan-Ude. Among other things, the summit produced a statement about a gas pipeline which is to go through the North to reach the South. This is an interesting and important project, so it makes sense to take a brief look at its background, at the state of the economic interaction between Russia and North Korea. In 2010, the volume of trade between these two countries was merely $110 million. As international trade goes, this volume is tiny. By comparison, in the same year North Korea’s trade with China was around $3.4 billion, some 30 times larger than its trade with Russia. The reason for this inactivity is quite simple: Russian companies have no interest in dealing with North Korea. In the Soviet era, trade flourished because it was subsidized due to geopolitical concerns of Moscow. Currently, when it comes to pure economic considerations, North Korea has almost noth

Sep 25, 2011By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Mathematics ― a la North Korea

By Andrei Lankov Mathematics is the most abstract of all sciences. It is as free as possible from dirty (and/or lofty) political passions and human emotions ― at least this is what most people believe. But there are exceptions to this rule. Considering the North Korean regime’s habit of politicizing everything, one should not expect North Korean math textbooks to be free from politics. Indeed, they are not. For the purposes of this column I had a brief look through the Year Two math textbook for North Korean primary schools, published in 2003 (or officially Year 91 of the ``Juche Era”). This textbook is a specimen of politicized math, North Korean style, and I would like to introduce some representative gems of this treasure chest. Admittedly, the majority of the questions in the textbook are not political ― indeed they have no back story at all. Children are required to deal with abstract numbers and areas. However, some 20-25 percent of the questions are different. They include a story to make math more interesting and relevant. Most of the stories are quite innocent ―

Aug 28, 2011By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

A society of numbers

By Andrei Lankov Anybody who has ever dealt with North Korean officials or documents is aware that the nation’s bureaucracy loves number-based names and titles. To a very large extent this is related to the deeply militaristic nature of the country’s culture. The military usually numbers units and often gives top secret armaments or projects numerical names. In North Korea, the same practice is applied to the society at large. The resulting names sound mysterious and this is probably part of its objective. More or less every North Korean knows what the term ‘number-one event’ means. This is the name of all events in which the “Dear Leader,” Marshall Kim Jong-il, is expected to participate. When inhabitants of a town see their streets swamped with plain-clothes police, and when they are ordered to paint all fences anew, they understand: A number-one event is expected. Everything related to the Kim family is “number one.” For example, painters who have a license to depict the members of the Kim family are known as number-one painters (and such a license is not easy to obta

Aug 14, 2011By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

A peek in Rodong Shinmun

By Andrei Lankov It is not that difficult to find the most representative North Korean newspaper. Everybody knows that such role has been reserved for the Rodong Shinmun, the ruling Korean Worker’s Party’s mouthpiece. This is not just a humble newspaper, but the voice of the party and state itself. So when I recently dropped in to the National Library I just looked through the latest issue of this venerable newspaper. The latest available issue happened to be published on the 11th July and the choice was completely random. So, what is there? The entire front page is taken up by one large, unsigned article which informs the reader of the greatest event of late. The Dear Leader, Marshal Kim Jong-il inspected the largest department store in the city of Pyongyang and provided its personnel with a wealth of managerial guidance on the best way to run this retail outlet. The article is accompanied by two pictures: one depicts the marshal taking an escalator with some of his entourage, and another shows the leader standing with the top management of the department store. The upp

Jul 31, 2011By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Perception of unification

By Andrei Lankov If you ask the average South Korean man or woman what they think of unification, the answer is highly predictable. Every patriotic Korean (well, indeed, every Korean) is supposed to say that unification should be the major political goal. But, such statements are uttered in public situations. After a few glasses of soju you might notice that your Korean interlocutor’s zeal for unification begins to wane ― especially if they are young. A minority might even tell you privately that unification is not a good idea at all, although in most cases you are likely to be told that unification is surely a great and glorious event, but it should happen as late as possible, since Korea is not prepared to handle the associated challenges properly. Such talk is very common among the younger generation, but only twenty years ago, any doubts about the need for immediate unification would be considered heretical, and there were not many such heretics until the mid-1990s. Indeed, from the division of Korea in 1945-48, all political groups in Korea were united in their be

Jul 17, 2011By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Special economic zones

By Andrei Lankov In early June it was officially declared that North Korea is opening two special economic zones (SEZs) on its border with China. Actually, the twin port cities of Rajin and Seonbong (now technically fused into the city of Raseon) had been promoted to the status of special economic zone in 1991, even though the development there was slow. Another SEZ is located in the vicinity of Sinuiju, the largest city on the Sino-Korean border. Actually this is the second attempt ― North Korea came very close to establishing a zone in Sinuiju area in 2002, but cancelled the initial plan. What should we expect from this development? With the Raseon SEZ things appear to be quite straight forward ― it’s about reducing the cost of shipping. Northeast China, often referred to as Manchuria, is landlocked. Only a narrow strip of Russian and Korean territory, nearly 10 kilometers wide, divides it from the waters of the Pacific. Nonetheless, this is enough to create a logistical nightmare for Chinese business, in order to ship something overseas they have to first transport

Jul 3, 2011By Andrei Lankov
Andrei Lankov

Comparison of NK and USSR

By Andrei Lankov The present author was born in the former Soviet Union and is frequently asked which period of Soviet history the current North Korea is reminiscent of? I usually say that this question has no straightforward answer. The problem is that depending on what area you look, the associations are remarkably different. The developments in North Korea are not that different from those of the USSR, but in different areas the time seems to flow with a different speed. North Korea’s official ideology and propaganda continues to be uncannily similar to late Stalinist Soviet culture, to the period of the late 1940s. The North Koreans are still served the same fare of ossified Leninism and strong nationalism, heavily spliced with eulogies to the leaders’ wisdom and benevolence. It appears as if North Korean propaganda, as well as its official ideology, has been frozen in time since the late 1960s. One can take an article from Rodong Shinmun of, say, 1972 and then compare it with an article published yesterday only to find no major differences in language, style and re

Jun 20, 2011By Andrei Lankov
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