Let's pay Trump off
By Oh Young-jin
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Let’s calm ourselves down.
It’s exasperating to hear U.S. President Trump demand South Korea pay $1 billion for a missile interceptor owned and operated by the U.S. After all, the two allies cut a deal by which Korea provided land for a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, while the U.S. paid for the rest ― hardware and maintenance.
It’s tempting to shout back at Trump and tell him that we don’t want it so he can take it back.
But here are some sobering questions.
Can we defend ourselves without U.S. forces? The South excels the North in the size of economy many times and is more than double it in terms of population. So the answer to this question is yes, we can.
But if so, what extra cost would we have to pay for their absence? Billions of dollars would be needed to make up for the U.S. Forces Korea with its 28,000 American troops stationed here. They serve as a tripwire to bring in bigger and more powerful reinforcements ― the so-called extended deterrence (nuclear umbrella) included ― from the U.S. in the event of a war. The tab for this is uncountable because it has worked as the bedrock for Korea’s sense of security for decades.
Would you be willing to pay that extra cost? The bulk of the budget for welfare, infrastructure and other key state affairs would have to be diverted to cover our own defense spending. This means bigger tax bills for fewer services. Then, the security void that would be created by the U.S. withdrawal would have foreign investors rethink their plans involving Korea.
THAAD can turn this chain of hypotheses into reality.
The much feared April crisis has passed.
What played a key role in preventing the North from conducting a sixth test critical to perfecting its nuclear program or in obviously scaring Pyongyang from being more audacious in launching inter-continental ballistic missiles? It tried twice previously but failed both times.
The United States applied pressure on Beijing to dissuade Pyongyang from playing naughty.
Trump has cajoled and coerced Chinese President Xi Jinping into betraying its blood-sealed ally since their April summit in Trump’s Mar-a-lago resort in Florida. Xi and his country look as if they are behaving like a well-trained bear jumping at every instruction given by their master, Trump. One may want to know what deal the two have made outside Trump’s pleasantries of the highest order or for goodies such as forgetting about hundreds of billions of dollars in China’s annual trade surplus from trading with the U.S.
What has caught China and the North off guard is the dispatch of the aircraft carrier, Carl Vinson, to the seas off the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. has 11 aircraft carriers in operation, including the Carl Vinson and Ronald Reagan stationed in Yokosuka, Japan. China has just launched its first indigenous aircraft carrier ― yet to be named. The Americans are all nuclear-powered and “cats-and-traps” for aircraft takeoff and landing, while the Chinese carrier is diesel-powered with a ski jump. In other words, the difference is comparable to that between Neanderthal and homo sapiens. That may have contributed to Trump’s persuasive power that worked magic on Xi and gave a rude wakeup call to Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader.
Now, it is important to think of how Trumpian arithmetic works.
Trump is a “successful” businessman and showbiz celebrity.
Therefore, he shuns money-losing businesses and sticks to the “beneficiary-pays” principle. This characteristic reflects his demand for Korea’s THAAD payment as he sees the U.S. as a benefactor and Korea as a beneficiary so he thinks it is natural for Seoul to pay.
Then, his pomposity as a TV personality also factors in as shown by his catchphrases such as, “Make America Great Again,” “Buy American and Hire American” and “America First.” This means he feels under a constant obligation to show his loyalty to the American people and explains why he adopts the new simple rule of friends and foes ― friends are who benefit his country and foes are those who don’t, forgoing the complicated traditional interactive standard of alliances. That is why he can embrace China one day but ditch it the next. Already, it is been made obvious when considering what Trump has done with his beloved Russia or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. By doing so, Trump can keep everybody (allies and enemies alike) on their toes, making them guess what he will do next.
How can Korea deal with the Trumpian America? On a more immediate basis, that question can pertain to the next president who will be elected May 9.
He shouldn’t provoke Trump or rather should not be provoked by him. If he pays attention to every move Trump makes and over-analyzes it, the chance is that he plays into Trump’s hands.
Regarding his call for THAAD payment, we may suppress our urge to tell Trump “no deal.” Rather, our new president can stroke Trump’s ego and communicate in a language a businessman can understand.
For instance, he can tell Trump that Korea will pay by prorating the use of the system every year for the next 30 years or so the yearly payment will turn into an infinitesimal amount. That is just an idea.
Oh Young-jin is The Korea Times’ chief editorial writer. Contact foolsdie5@ktimes.com and foolsdie5@gmail.com.