Yi Whan-woo is a Korea Times journalist primarily covering finance. He writes in-depth articles on macroeconomy and financial markets and previously covered sports, politics, diplomacy and inter-Korean affairs, among others. Feel free to contact him at yistory@koreatimes.co.kr.
Provocations 'intended to scuttle Trump's North Korea policy'
North Korean military conducts a live-fire drill for multiple launchers and tactical guided weapons in the country's east coastal city of Wonsan, Saturday. / Yonhap
By Yi Whan-woo
By Yi Whan-woo
North Korea fired several short-range projectiles, Saturday, to ratchet up pressure on U.S. President Donald Trump to return to the negotiating table with a compromise on easing sanctions, analysts said Sunday.
They said Trump, however, will keep sanctions and that sanctions relief will not happen, just like when the summit between leaders of the two counties collapsed in Hanoi, Vietnam late February.
The experts said such a deadlock will force North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, not Trump, to consider whether to go back on the path to war as in 2017 or comply with the U.S. demand for full denuclearization in return for sanctions relief.
Pyongyang apparently did not want to anger the U.S., Saturday, as they did not fire intermediate- or long-range missiles. A series of test launches in 2017 showed that the North's intermediate-range missiles can reach the U.S. military base in Guam while the latter can target the entire continental U.S.
Meanwhile, the North's state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said, Sunday, Kim oversaw a live-fire drill of long-range multiple rocket launchers and unspecified tactical guided weapons
KCNA said Kim expressed “great satisfaction” over Saturday's drills and urged his troops to bear in mind “the iron truth that genuine peace and security are ensured and guaranteed only by powerful strength.”
“I'd say Kim is trying to baffle Trump by scuttling his biggest diplomatic achievement with the North,” said Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. “At the same time, the North Korean leader is making sure he does not cross the line. And this is why Pyongyang only went ahead with what I would call, 'low-key provocation.'”
He speculated Saturday's launches may not affect the U.S. policy on North Korea, saying, “Trump is likely to watch the situation and let Kim decide the next move.”
Shin In-kyun, president of the Korea Defense Network said the provocations were also intended to baffle Moon, who staked his presidency on a peace-driven economy and has struggled to salvage his role as the “mediator” between Trump and Kim.
“It will be Moon who will suffer setback most from the North's provocations,” he said.
Meanwhile, the KNCA also released photos of the short-range projectiles fired from the country's east coastal city of Wonsan into the East Sea on two occasions _ 9:06 a.m. to 9:27 a.m. and around 10 a.m.
They flew about 70 to 240 kilometers, according to the South Korean military officials.
The photos showed weapons that seemed like 240-mm and 300-mm multiple rocket launchers and also one with a similar appearance to Russia's tactical ballistic missile, the Iskander.
Iskander missiles can be fired a distance ranging from 60 to 500 kilometers and are difficult to intercept, the Seoul military official said.
If what North Korea referred to as the launch of “tactical guided weapons” was the North's version of the Iskander, it could be in violation of the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolution.
The UNSC adopted nine major resolutions on North Korea from 2006 to 2017, demanding North Korea refrain from nuclear tests and suspend all ballistic missile activities.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) had said the North fired multiple short-range “missiles” but later revised the announcement, saying only “projectiles” were fired.
“How the JCS handles the aftermath of Saturday's firing is different from the past when it announced details about provocations within a day or two of the incidents,” Shin said. “I'm sure the JCS already knows whether it was a ballistic missile or not, They are believed to be keeping quiet just because their announcement could further embarrass President Moon.”
Professor Kim said the U.S. is not likely to impose new sanctions even if a ballistic missile was fired.
“For UNSC, they will certainly take some measures, such as denouncing the North in a statement,” he added.