Trump worried over Seoul's leniency with Pyongyang
Threatening to hold up FTA aims to take lead in upcoming talks
By Kim Jae-kyoung
U.S. President Donald Trump is aiming to gain leverage in orchestrating talks with North Korea by tying a renegotiated trade deal with South Korea to Pyongyang's denuclearization, analysts said Monday.
They said that Trump is concerned that President Moon Jae-in and his administration will be too lenient with the reclusive regime and that Seoul will take the lead in talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Moon and Trump are scheduled to meet Kim, April 27 and in May, respectively.
“I expect Trump is concerned, like a lot of people, that South Korea is setting its expectations for a North Korea deal too high,” William Brown, adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service, told The Korea Times.
He pointed out that one of the larger dangers of the summits is that Kim will try to use them to drive wedges.
“I don't think that will happen, but Trump wants to make sure Seoul does not cave in on maximum pressure,” he said.
“No sunshine yet. So, it's a message to Moon as he prepares for his summit: Don't get ahead of the game. I need as much support as possible on this.”
Brown's comments came after Trump threatened Thursday to “hold up” a renegotiated free trade agreement with South Korea until a deal with North Korea is reached on its denuclearization.
“I may hold it up 'til after a deal is made with North Korea,” he said during a speech on infrastructure in Ohio. “Does everybody understand that? You know why, right? You know why? Because it's a very strong card.”
Last Wednesday, South Korea and the U.S. reached an agreement over steel tariffs and revisions to the KORUS FTA paving the way for the two allies to close ranks to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis.
'Trump's words make no sense'
Some experts believe Trump's attempt to take aim at South Korea to gain leverage won't help find a solution for the North's denuclearization.
“Trump's words here make no sense, as he should be looking for leverage against perpetrator North Korea and its enabler, mainland China, not against South Korea,” said Sean King, senior vice president of Park Strategies.
He assumes that Trump doesn't fully understand the situation.
“In classically Cold War terms, this would have been like us telling West Germany we couldn't do something with them until we got what we wanted from the Soviet Union.”
The analysts said that Trump is also seeking to cater to his voters and supporters by getting tougher on South Korea. Eventually, he wants to harden his image as a leader who is pushing his America First strategy.
“This is likely for consumption by Trump's base. He has a tendency to overstate matters at rallies and fundraisers to build support with his base,” said Troy Stangarone, senior director at the Korea Economic Institute (KEI).
By his view, there is no real advantage for the U.S. in holding things up.
“It would complicate talks with North Korea if the U.S. tried to use the agreement as leverage, while undercutting U.S. credibility with both Seoul and Pyongyang at a critical time,” he said.
Stangarone, who is in charge of congressional and trade affairs at the KEI, said the renegotiated KORUS FTA is a win-win for both countries.
“The U.S was able to address some of its concerns on autos and in a few other areas, while Korea was able to address some concerns on ISDS, trade remedies and textiles, and keep agriculture out of the negotiations,” he said.
“On the whole, this is a good outcome for both countries, especially as it keeps KORUS in place with only minor changes.”