China's patience may run out

By Yi Whan-woo

North Korea’s fifth nuclear test may prod China to change its stance on its ally and shift to a hard-line policy, analysts said Friday.

China issued a statement immediately after the nuclear test was reported, pledging to “actively” participate in U.N. sanctions against the North ― a rare reaction to the North’s provocations.

The test infuriated Beijing, Pyongyang’s largest benefactor, because it came days after the G2 summit in Hangzhou, where Chinese President reaffirmed its support for Pyongyang’s denuclearization.

North Korea also fired three ballistic missiles on the second and last day of the G20 summit, Monday.

“China certainly was embarrassed by North Korea because the test took place amid media reports that Beijing is loosening its noose on the military state,” said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong University. “China will find it more difficult to find excuses for a refusal to join international pressure against the Kim Jong-un regime.”

This week, China agreed on adopting U.N. Security Council (UNSC) statements condemning North Korea’s launch of three ballistic missiles and also a submarine-launched ballistic missile in August.

But it previously opposed adopting separate statements concerning North Korea’s ballistic missile launches from June to July. It has been speculated that this is to protest against the planned deployment a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, cited a “trigger clause” that automatically require additional response to North Korea in case of its violation of the UNSC Resolution 2270. The resolution was imposed in March against North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in July.

“China was one of the countries that promised to carry out Resolution 2270 and it will face blame if it reneges on that commitment,” he said.

Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korea studies at Dongguk University, speculated that China will be forced to join U.N. efforts to tighten the sanctions and block exports of crude oil and other materials for non-military purposes.

It is suspected that North Korea could still earn cash to develop its nuclear program by exploiting loopholes of the UNSC Resolution 2270.

In line with demands from China, and to a lesser extent, Russia, the resolution excluded a ban on Pyongyang’s import of Chinese crude oil. It also granted export of North Korean-produced coal, iron and iron ore if such transactions are “determined to be exclusively for livelihood purposes.

“The U.S. will try to choke North Korea, and China at least will be required to agree on tightening exports to the reclusive state even if such exports are made on humanitarian grounds,” Park said.

The analysts, however, said they are not uncertain about China blocking its sales of crude oil, which North Korea has relied on for its survival.

“China knows too well that a ban on crude oil export will ultimately lead to collapse of the Kim regime and an influx of North Korean refuges on the borderline. And it may take risks to oppose the U.S.,” Yang said.

Park speculated that Washington may cite its secondary-boycott and take punitive measures against Beijing it if considers the latter’s support on sanctions against Pyongyang unsatisfactory.

Meanwhile, the experts said China will no longer be able to oppose the deployment of THAAD in South Korea.

“It became too evident that South Korea needs an advanced U.S. missile shield to deter North Korea’s evolving nuclear missile threats.” Kim Yong-hyun said.

A researcher at the Sejong Institute claimed that the Beijing-Pyongyang relations may go from bad to worse, although Beijing will still try to avoid accelerating Pyongyang’s isolation.

“I’d say China is out of patience and will minimize its relations with the Kim regime so that it does not suddenly fall and cause chaos in the region,” the researcher said on condition of anonymity.