NK sanctions lack substance

By Kim Hyo-jin

Despite its harsh rhetoric, the South Korean government has had difficulty finding feasible measures that could pressure North Korea to drop its plan to launch a satellite, analysts said, Friday.

The Kim Jong-un regime is preparing to fire a long-range rocket, but it is widely believed to be a cover for a ballistic missile that violates U.N. resolutions.

In the wake of another provocation following the Jan. 6 nuclear test, Seoul has responded sternly, saying that Pyongyang will pay a “severe price” if it goes ahead with the plan.

“It is mere rhetoric,” said Park Hwee-rhak, Dean of the Graduate School of Politics and Leadership at Kookmin University. “The government seems to have made it a rule to warn Pyongyang though there’s no envisioned plan of action.”

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, echoed that sentiment, noting that South Korea lacks options to press and punish the North singlehandedly.

“What South Korea could do might be to expand loudspeaker broadcasts, which would have little impact on them,” he said. “The government’s strong remarks rather reflect the fact that it has no strategy whatsoever for North Korea-related policies.”

The Ministry of Unification suspended inter-Korean projects including humanitarian aid and civil exchanges in the wake of the Jan. 6 nuclear test. The South Korean government also resumed loudspeaker broadcasts in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), two days after the repressive state tested an alleged hydrogen bomb.

Some say it could further engage in psychological warfare by expanding loudspeakers or setting up electronic display boards, but questions are raised over the effectiveness of these tactics.

Another option, shutting down the Gaeseong Industrial Complex in the North Korean border town of Gaeseong, is not welcomed as it could harm inter-Korean relations in the long term.

“It could undermine the future momentum of bilateral relations,” Park said. “In addition, the profit coming from the joint industrial park prevents the South Korean government from suspending it.”

The prospect for tougher sanctions against the North through the U.N. also seems unlikely due to friction between China and the United States.

“The United States and China are consulting on a resolution draft, but they don’t seem to be forming common ground while holding onto their own positions,” said an official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs who wished to remain anonymous. “It will inevitably take time.”

The U.N. Security Council has discussed the plan to adopt tougher and more comprehensive resolutions against North Korea following its fourth nuclear test.

But with Washington and Seoul claiming a “severe price” for the provocation and Beijing insisting on an “appropriate response,” the talks to adjust the level of sanctions have not made progress.

After North Korea announced it would launch a satellite by rocket between Feb. 8 and 25, the presidential office issued a statement and called on the international community for stronger sanctions.

“North Korea’s notice of the plan to launch a long-range missile, coming at a time when there is a discussion for Security Council sanctions on its fourth nuclear test, is a direct challenge to the international community,” said the statement. “We strongly warn the North that it will pay a severe price if it goes ahead with its long-range missile launch plan.”