Yi Whan-woo is a Korea Times journalist primarily covering finance. He writes in-depth articles on macroeconomy and financial markets and previously covered sports, politics, diplomacy and inter-Korean affairs, among others. Feel free to contact him at yistory@koreatimes.co.kr.
'US to return to traditional North Korea policy under Biden'
U.S. president-elect Joe Biden gives a speech on American foreign policy at Yonsei University in Seoul in 2013 when he was vice president for the Barack Obama administration. Yonhap
By Yi Whan-woo
Pyongyang may carry out military provocation to catch new White House's attention
By Yi Whan-woo
The United States is expected to return to a more traditional approach toward denuclearization of North Korea under President-elect Joe Biden, according to analysts, Sunday.
They said Biden will only be open to top-down diplomacy embraced by President Donald Trump and possible meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un if Kim is willing to give up nuclear weapons.
This may put Biden at odds with Moon Jae-in's peace gestures with the North. This includes his push for cross-border economic cooperation and declaration of the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
“Bottom-up diplomacy is definitely going to the mainstream idea under the forthcoming Joe Biden administration's North Korea policy,” said Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University.
He referred to the decision-making process that moves on from working-level to upper-level diplomats, before a head of state finalizes big decisions.
“I'd say this is widely practiced in a democratic country, with the Trump America being an exception,” Shin said.
Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University, had a similar view.
He pointed out Biden, in a special contribution to Yonhap News Agency during his presidential campaign last month, said he will “engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula.”
Park also pointed out that Biden, during his campaign trail, said he would not engage in “photo-op summits” as Trump did.
Biden called Kim a “thug” saying he would meet Kim on the condition that the latter agrees to reduce his country's nuclear capabilities.
“This means the administration of President Moon may need to tune up its North Korea policy with that of Biden's,” Park said.
Shin speculated differences may grow between the two allies as Biden supports multilateralism and will take into account Japan's views in any dealings with North Korea.
“For the U.S., the military alliance with Japan is as important as that with the South,” he said. “Considering Tokyo has been critical of Pyongyang, Seoul will need a better reason to convince Washington and Tokyo in its push for cross-border reconciliation despite Kim's persistent nuclear ambitions.”
Having served as vice president under President Barack Obama (January 2009 to January 2017), Biden will not “simply repeat Obama's strategic patience and tolerate North Korea's nuclear development,” according to Park.
“Biden witnessed how the North advanced its nuclear capability while the U.S. patiently waited for it to return to the negotiating table,” Park said. “This is not going to happen again with Biden as president.”
The analysts viewed North Korea's renewed provocations as a “possible scenario,” if the South and the U.S. restore full-scale joint military exercises.
The earliest exercise will take place in spring next year.
“Whether the U.S. deploys strategic assets and brings in a larger number of troops outside South Korea will certainly provoke the North,” said Yang Moon-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.
Park said the North may try to bring U.S. attention to the Korean Peninsula by testing its new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) unveiled Oct. 10 in its military parade on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of ruling Workers' Party.
The weapon appears to be larger than the North's previous long-range missile, meaning it is capable of flying farther with a more powerful nuclear warhead.
“For Biden, uniting a divided America over the presidential election and flattening the COVID-19 curve will be the priority. And North Korea may try to bring U.S. attention with an ICBM test as it did with past U.S. governments,” Park said.