Peace treaty proposal drawing caution

Kim Jong-eun expected to keep sidelining Moon

By Kim Jae-kyoung

President Moon Jae-in needs to take a more cautious approach with his initiative to sign a “peace treaty” with North Korea until Pyongyang agrees to halt the development of its missile and nuclear programs, international experts said Sunday.

They are voicing concerns that pushing for his idea despite the North’s ongoing provocations could in the end drive a wedge between South Korea and the United States.

The U.S. is now seeking harsher sanctions against the reclusive country in cooperation with its allies following the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Tuesday, capable of striking the U.S. mainland.

“A peace treaty should be discussed with North Korea, once they halt their nuclear tests and missile launches and return to exploratory talks,” Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for the six-party talks with the North, told The Korea Times.

He pointed out that offering a peace treaty while the North is violating U.N. Security Council resolutions is something Pyongyang will “pocket” with no assurances that it will halt nuclear tests and missile launches.

“I wouldn’t recommend this, until the North halted these programs and returned to formal negotiations,” he said.

DeTrani, president of the Daniel Morgan Academy in Washington, helped broker a 2005 agreement on North Korea’s nuclear program.

The concerns came after Moon said Thursday that he was willing to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and put all issues on the negotiating table, including the signing of a peace treaty.

During his speech ahead of the G20 summit in Germany, he said, “We do not wish for the collapse of North Korea, and we will not pursue any form of unification by absorbing it. We will not pursue unification by force.”

“We should sign a peace treaty joined by all relevant parties at the end of the Korean War to settle lasting peace on the peninsula," he added.

The experts said that Moon’s peace treaty idea seems inadequate at this point and somewhat dangerous since even discussions might hurt the alliance between the U.S. and Korea.

“Moon’s more conciliatory approach toward Pyongyang could create some bumpy moments ahead between himself and President Trump, so long as Trump sticks to his recently reassumed hard line,” said Sean King, a New York-based political analyst and Asia specialist.

In particular, Moon’s reiteration of his determination to follow Kim Dae-jung’s Sunshine Policy even after the launch of an ICBM could undermine Seoul’s credibility as this would be going against the world’s concerted efforts to tighten the screws on the isolated country.

“Moon’s emphasis on dialogue while the North continues missile tests and provocations reduces Moon’s and South Korea’s credibility regarding its security and legitimacy, because it demonstrates weakness in the face of aggressiveness,” said Tara O, an adjunct fellow at the Washington-based Pacific Forum Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Going against the tide

Moon is being persistent in seeking dialogue with Kim but it is likely that his approach will not be effective at this moment for two reasons.

First, his approach is going against the tide. Second, Kim would want to exclude South Korea from talks and deal directly with the U.S.

“As North Korea further develops its capability to build a nuclear missile that can reach the U.S., the more urgent the threat becomes for the U.S.,” O said. “The U.S. is considering all options, including military ones, to not allow North Korea to become a direct threat.”

“The other problem is that Kim Jong-un is not interested in having talks with Moon, because it’s contrary to Pyongyang’s efforts to sideline Seoul as a significant actor,” she added.

It is doubtful whether Kim will respond to Moon’s proposals but it’s significant that the latter spoke of no unification by absorption or force during his speech in Germany.

“It contrasts with former President Park Geun-hye’s Dresden speech that launched the unification bonanza,” said Katharine H.S. Moon, a senior fellow at the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution.

The chairwoman of the SK-Korea Foundation in Korea Studies said that North Korea interpreted Park’s approach as aggressive unification via regime change and absorption.

“Moon may be signaling to both Trump and Kim Jong-un that they are getting too close to military confrontation and that diplomacy and some sort of reconciliation efforts are ever more urgent,” she said.

However, the experts supported Moon’s proposal for the two Koreas to resume reunions of families separated by the Korean War and for cooperation on the 2018 Winter Olympics to be held in PyeongChang, South Korea

“I think family reunions are a good humanitarian issue that I support. This transcends nuclear and political issues,” DeTrani said.