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Park Chong-hoon

Park Chong-hoon currently heads the Korea Research Team at the Standard Chartered Korea. He worked as a senior research fellow and head of telecommunication policy at the Korea Information Society Development Institute (KISDI).

Park Chong-hoon

The $350 bil. question: Korea must negotiate like a strategic power, not a reactive one

The Korean won appears to be pricing in risks that belie the current, strong domestic economic data. Despite improving growth, booming semiconductor orders and benign inflation, the Korean won is underperforming emerging market peers — depreciating 2.74 percent against the U.S. dollar since September, compared to declines of 1.36 percent for the Thai baht, 0.82 percent for the Indian rupee and 0.09 percent for the Malaysian ringgit over the same period. We believe the market is pricing in uncertainty arising from Korea’s tariff deal with the U.S., which involves investing $350 billion in the U.S. as part of a tariff adjustment framework to avoid the impact of punitively high, immediate U.S. tariffs. The government has yet to officially explain the implications of this investment amount and how it will be structured, creating turmoil among markets and the public. The domestic debate has broken into two predictable camps, both partisan and not well considered, in our view. One side says Korea should reject U.S. demands outright, citing national interests and pride, while the other a

Oct 20, 2025By Park Chong-hoon
The $350 bil. question: Korea must negotiate like a strategic power, not a reactive one
Park Chong-hoon

Political unity needed for upcoming negotiations with US

On July 30, Korea agreed to tariff terms with the United States, capping levies on Korean autos and auto parts at 15 percent. In exchange, Korea pledged $350 billion in investments in the U.S. and agreed to increase imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). The agreement defused immediate trade risks for Korea, but as neither country has signed the deal yet, Korea may still face negotiation challenges. Sooner or later, President Lee Jae Myung will meet U.S. President Donald Trump at a summit to define Korea’s economic and security trajectory. The U.S. is pressing for Korea to further open up its agricultural market to U.S. rice and beef and asking for a significant increase in its financial contribution to U.S. military operations. As these demands target politically sensitive issues, Korea needs to prepare comprehensively and enter these talks with unified domestic political backing. Lee has requested that the trading teams negotiate for domestic national interests, emphasising that Korea should not concede to unreasonable demands. While he did not call on public and political gr

Aug 6, 2025By Park Chong-hoon
Political unity needed for upcoming negotiations with US
Park Chong-hoon

Will Korea stand firm against Trump’s economic coercion?

The proposed tariffs by the U.S. on its trade partners appear to be not only protectionist, but also an instrument of economic coercion. The tariff plan for Korea — 25 percent across the board, 25 percent on autos, 50 percent on steel and a crushing 200 percent on pharmaceuticals — seems designed to force Korean companies to abandon their home base and relocate to the U.S. While Korea is not the U.S.’ only tariff target, it is uniquely vulnerable to such pressures. A key reason for this vulnerability is Korea’s heavy economic trade dependence on the U.S. — it ran a $55.6 billion trade surplus with the U.S. in 2024, the eighth-largest globally. We think the Donald Trump administration incorrectly views this surplus as evidence of unfairness that requires compensation, rather than as a natural result of Korea’s competitive advantages. This narrative ignores a crucial fact: that since 2017, Korea has reinvested a majority of its surplus with the U.S. directly back into the U.S. economy. According to Korea International Trade Association and the Export-Import Bank of Korea dat

Jul 15, 2025By Park Chong-hoon
Will Korea stand firm against Trump’s economic coercion?
Park Chong-hoon

Navigating Korea's tumultuous path to growth in 2025

Stepping into 2025, South Korea stands at a crossroads, facing a precarious mix of political upheaval and economic uncertainty. Consumer confidence has nosedived, reflecting widespread apprehension about the National Assembly's impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol and the devastating plane crash at Muan International Airport. These events have cast a long shadow over the economic recovery. Yet, amid this turbulence, bold fiscal and monetary measures offer hope for stabilization and recovery.

Jan 23, 2025By Park Chong-hoon
Navigating Korea's tumultuous path to growth in 2025
Park Chong-hoon

Insights and perspectives from investor conversations

Asian markets present a vibrant and diverse landscape, offering both opportunities and challenges for investors. Our recent discussions with British clients shed light on the complexities shaping Asian markets, providing valuable insights into the key factors driving investment decisions. From the evolving stance of central banks to geopolitical uncertainties and regional economic dynamics, our conversations underscored the multifaceted nature of investing in Asia.

Mar 25, 2024By Park Chong-hoon
Insights and perspectives from investor conversations
Park Chong-hoon

Navigating financial forecasting: Who to trust?

By Park Chong-hoon In the world of finance, uncertainty is a constant companion. One issue that often vexes investors is which bank's forecasts they can rely on. It's a simple question, yet the answer can be anything but straightforward. Famous investor and Oaktree Capital co-founder Howard S. Marks has long questioned the value of economic forecasts. Moreover, the diversity of forecasts from various banks leaves investors in perpetual doubt about which of these predictions they can trust.Our conversation with a client recently revealed an interesting and pragmatic approach: averaging forecasts from multiple banks, while acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of these predictions. Meanwhile, economists continue to issue forecasts, often with accuracy rates that leave much to be desired. It brings to mind a clever cartoon I once encountered, humorously portraying economists as experts in eloquently explaining why they were consistently wrong.In foreign exchange forecasting, a research paper by Meese and Rogoff (1983) found that randomly chosen (or random walk) forecasts outperform mo

Sep 19, 2023By Park Chong-hoon
Park Chong-hoon

BOK might be among first to cut, but will not rush

By Park Chong-hoon We recently revised our view on the Bank of Korea's (BOK) policy rate and now expect a cut of 25 basis points in the first quarter of 2024 instead of the fourth quarter of 2023. This change in view is in line with the central bank's more hawkish stance recently and we expect it to stay on hold until the end of this year. Just as the BOK was among the first central banks to increase rates in the current cycle, we expect it to be the first to lower the base rate, but it may choose to do so based on its own unique needs.Korea's inflationary pressures have not yet been eliminated and so we view the BOK needs to monitor the monetary policies of other central banks before starting to cut rates. It may need to align with major central banks and adopt a cautious approach to avoid moving prematurely, as a significant interest rate difference against the U.S. or Europe could result in sudden capital outflows from Korea. That said, we do not anticipate that the BOK will raise its base interest rate on concerns about possible hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Cent

Jul 24, 2023By Park Chong-hoon
Park Chong-hoon

Time to tone down the pessimism

By Park Chong-hoon South Korea's economy faces various challenges, such as rising inflation, falling real wages, a persistent trade deficit and a weakening real estate market, but the overriding concern for the market is Korea's declining exports to its key trading partner, China. Korea's economic recovery in the second half of the year will be closely tied to China's post-reopening rebound, according to market economists and the Bank of Korea. So far, the expected positive effects of China's growth on Korea's exports and tourism have been limited, likely due to geopolitical tensions between the two countries and Korea's efforts to strengthen ties with the U.S. and Japan, potentially excluding China from its supply chain network in the process. While concerns about the weak impact of China's post-reopening rebound on Korea are valid, we think the current weak economic link with China is likely influenced largely by the business cycle and structural trends rather than geopolitical tensions between the countries. The slowdown in Korea's exports to China, which mainly comprise inputs fo

May 15, 2023By Park Chong-hoon
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