Yi Whan-woo is a Korea Times journalist primarily covering finance. He writes in-depth articles on macroeconomy and financial markets and previously covered sports, politics, diplomacy and inter-Korean affairs, among others. Feel free to contact him at yistory@koreatimes.co.kr.
Elderly to make up nearly half of Korea's population by 2072
An elderly worker carries a pile of recyclable paper on a cart in Gwangju, Sept. 1. Yonhap
By Yi Whan-woo
Youth to comprise just 6.6% of populace
Senior citizens are projected to comprise nearly half of Korea's population by 2072, with the country aging more than twice as fast as the global average, data showed, Monday.
Data from Statistics Korea reveals that by 2072, young Koreans will account for only 6.6 percent of the country’s population, as Korea continues to struggle with a low birthrate.
The demographic crisis will result in a greater burden on younger, economically active individuals to support the elderly, who will be economically inactive, according to the stats agency.
The agency compiled the data while projecting demographic trends in Korea and around the world from 2022 to 2072.
It said Korea's population is projected to decrease to 36 million by 2072, down 30.8 percent from this year’s estimate of 52 million.
The world population, on the other hand, is forecast to continue to rise during the cited period to reach 10.22 billion in 2072, up from estimated 8.16 billion this year.
The proportion of Koreans aged 65 or older is forecast to rise from 19.2 percent in 2024 to 47.7 percent in 2072.
In comparison, the proportion of elderly people in the global population is expected to increase from 10.2 percent in 2024 to 20.3 percent in 2072.
“The data shows almost one out of every two Koreans will be senior citizens 50 years from now,” Statistics Korea said.
“Another noteworthy finding is that, in 50 years, the proportion of elderly Koreans will be more than twice as high as that of their counterparts globally.”
By 2072, Korea is projected to rank third, after Hong Kong and Puerto Rico, in terms of the ratio of elderly people.
The proportion of people aged 65 or older is expected to reach 58.5 percent in Hong Kong and 50.8 percent in Puerto Rico.
In terms of the young population, those aged 0 to 14 are projected to account for 6.6 percent of the population in 2072, down from 10.6 percent in 2024.
This year’s rate of 10.6 percent for Korea is already below the global average of 24.7 percent, as the country continues to struggle with the world’s lowest birthrate.
The birthrate fell to 0.72 baby per woman in 2023, down from 0.78 a year earlier.
Korea's birthrate is expected to recover to 1.08 in 2072. But it will still be lower than all surveyed countries except for Macau, which is projected at 1.04.
Against this backdrop, the proportion of the working-age population, or those aged 15 to 64, is expected to decrease from 70.2 percent in 2024 to 45.8 percent in 2072.
Additionally, the population dependency ratio is projected to increase to 118.5 people in 2072, up from 42.5 people this year.
The population dependency ratio refers to the number of dependents aged 0 to 14 and over 65, relative to the working-age population. The higher the number, the greater the pressure on the productive population.
Meanwhile, North Korea’s population is forecast to peak in 2032 before declining to 23 million by 2072, down from 26 million in 2024.
The combined population of South and North Korea is projected to be 59 million in 2072, compared to 78 million in 2024.
“The data suggests that a population decline will be unstoppable even if the two Koreas are united after 50 years,” Statistics Korea said.