China unlikely to mediate potential Trump-Kim summit: US experts
U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shake hands before their one-on-one chat during the second U.S.-North Korea summit at the Metropole Hotel in Hanoi, Vietnam, Feb. 7, 2019. Reuters-Yonhap
WASHINGTON — China is unlikely to mediate a potential summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, U.S. experts assessed Tuesday, amid Trump's past signals to resume dialogue with Pyongyang.
Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) who previously served as the national intelligence officer for North Korea, made the assessment during a CSIS podcast, arguing that neither Pyongyang nor other key players see an urgent need for renewed U.S.-North Korea talks.
"But none of them is feeling a sense of urgency, to include obviously Kim Jong-un, that the U.S. and DPRK need to talk right now," Seiler said, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"In fact, there's much to be accomplished by refusing to talk," he added, suggesting that Pyongyang could gain leverage by increasing Washington's eagerness for negotiations.
Seiler expressed skepticism that Beijing would play a role in bringing Trump and Kim together or "coaching" Kim.
"I just don't see Xi Jinping taking a lot of political risk, like Moon Jae-in style," he said, referring to the former South Korean president's efforts to facilitate earlier U.S.-North Korea summit diplomacy. "I don't think China is looking to do that."
Victor Cha, Korea Chair at CSIS, offered a similar view, suggesting that Beijing might be willing to provide a venue but would be reluctant to undertake substantial diplomatic efforts to arrange one.
"They're really not interested in doing any of the heavy lifting," Cha said when discussing China's potential role in mediating a Trump-Kim meeting.
He recalled that Beijing had previously exerted economic pressure on North Korea to encourage negotiations but left Washington to handle the substantive diplomatic challenges.
Even if Trump and Kim were to meet, Seiler predicted that their relationship could deteriorate again within six to 12 months in the absence of substantive agreements, as occurred following their previous summit diplomacy.
However, he also predicted that meaningful progress could be possible if North Korea returned to negotiations prepared to discuss issues such as arms control.
"I think the president's (Trump's) intention in that regard is not delusional or false. I really do believe, under the right conditions, he believes he can move the ball on the peace issue, reducing tensions, maybe not denuclearizing North Korea, but making the peninsula a much safer place than it is today," said Seiler.
Seiler also said Kim's recent surprise visit to the Chinese border city of Dandong suggested that the North Korean leader was seeking to demonstrate his ability to maintain close relations with both China and Russia.
"I think Kim probably sees some value in gently reminding Russia that, you know, 'We like our new relationship. We're there to support you, but you can't leave us hanging dry,'" Seiler said.
Kim made a one-day visit to Dandong on Saturday, meeting Wang Huning, China's top political adviser, and visiting a war memorial and a bus factory amid efforts by Pyongyang and Beijing to deepen ties.
The visit came ahead of a planned Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen next month, which U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to attend. Trump has expressed interest in resuming dialogue with Kim.