Brazil's markets set for sharp sell-off after Lula's reelection
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, left, addresses supporters during a victory rally after winning the presidential runoff in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Sunday. AP-Yonhap
NEW YORK/BRASILIA/LONDON — Brazilian markets were set for a sharp sell-off on Monday after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's reelection, upending investor bets on a right-wing victory and putting the president's fiscal plans back under scrutiny.
November futures for the Brazilian real were down more than 10 percent, while the iShares MSCI Brazil exchange-traded fund fell 26 percent in premarket trade. Brazil's international debt also sold off, with some long-dated bonds slipping more than 2 cents.
Markets rallied earlier this month on expectations of a shift to the right after Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, unexpectedly finished first in the opening round of Brazil's presidential elections.
Stocks closed on Friday almost 7 percent above their level before the first round, while the real was nearly 5 percent stronger against the U.S. dollar.
Interest-rate futures had also reflected expectations that tighter fiscal policy under Bolsonaro would allow borrowing costs to decline.
"We expect a sharp market reaction on Monday, with aggressive repricing, a sell-off in assets and interest rate futures likely to hit their upper limit shortly after the open," said Luis Felipe Vital, head of macro strategy at Warren Investimentos.
Bolsonaro's refusal to concede and pledge to seek an annulment added to investor uncertainty.
"Important for local financial markets will be how quickly Bolsonaro accepts the result – or at least allows the constitution to run its course," said Chris Turner, strategist at ING in London.
Attention will now turn to Lula's choice of finance minister and what it signals about his fiscal approach.
"The key signal for markets will be the next Lula administration’s commitment to fiscal discipline, starting with the appointment of a new finance minister in coming weeks," said Graham Stock at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.
Challenges ahead
Lula faces the challenge of slowing the rise in Brazil's debt while protecting social programmes and investment, with investors looking for signs his gradual fiscal approach can bring borrowing costs down.
"(The) Lula administration will have no choice but to do some fiscal consolidation too, but most investors doubt it will be enough to put debt sustainability back on track," said Thierry Larose, portfolio manager at Vontobel Asset Management.
Without confidence that Lula can deliver, lenders could demand higher interest rates, adding to Brazil's debt burden and making credit more expensive for businesses and households.
"Investors want a clear and credible commitment to fiscal discipline," said Alejo Czerwonko, chief investment officer for emerging markets at UBS Global Wealth Management. "We expect the rally that followed the first round to be largely priced out, and sentiment to stay weak until a clear fiscal plan emerges."
Czerwonko said investors wanted an end to campaign-related spending and a believable path to stabilize public debt. "It also means a working relationship with an opposition-leaning Congress, because no fiscal plan passes without it," he said.
Lula's team aims to produce a budget surplus of about 1.3 perent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. That would leave money to cover part of the interest bill, reducing the need for fresh borrowing. But public debt already exceeds 82 percent of GDP, while pensions and other legally required spending limit where savings can come from.
"Lula's policies have talked about spending cuts, but he's not gone into the details of how that is going to look," said Divya Singaravelu, head of research at Meridian 1305 Capital.