How closer China-US ties and more Xi-Trump summits could work in Iran's favor
U.S. President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with President of China Xi Jinping as they depart the National Archives Museum following a tour, Washington, DC, Sept. 25. AFP-Yonhap
China and the US — Iran's key partner and its chief adversary - found firmer common ground on Tehran at the Washington summit last month, and further head-of-state diplomacy could work in Iran's favor, according to analysts.
Iran was on the agenda when the presidents of the United States and China met in Beijing in May and again in Washington in September.
There was no direct reference to Tehran in Beijing's statement after the May summit, but following the September meeting China was more specific, saying it and the US agreed that Iran must uphold its commitment against developing nuclear weapons.
In an eight-point consensus, the two powers also agreed that no country or organisation should impose tolls on international waterways, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.
Chinese state news agency Xinhua also reported that Xi Jinping said in Washington that China hoped that the US and Iran would resolve their conflict through dialogue, prompting thanks in a social media post from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Donald Trump and Xi are expected to meet twice more this year, creating opportunities for dialogue despite Iran's fears that it could be reduced to a bargaining chip in great-power competition, observers say.
Niu Xinchun, director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, said the shift in China's statements between the two summits showed that Beijing and Washington had "built greater alignment on Iran than before".
"This demonstrates that exchanges between the two nations are increasing and their consensus is expanding," he said.
A more stable US-China relationship was "undeniably beneficial" for Iran, because it gave Tehran an additional and "potentially far more effective" channel to communicate with and influence Washington, Niu said.
Iran has relied on regional powers such as Pakistan and Qatar to communicate with the US. Russia had also offered to mediate, but its strained ties with Washington made it a poor fit for an effective diplomatic bridge, Niu said.
"On the flip side, Iran harbours a concern typical of smaller powers - the fear of ultimately being used as a bargaining chip in major-power dealings," he said, adding this was why Tehran sent its top diplomat to Beijing for talks just days ahead of Xi's US trip.
During the discussions with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed Beijing's support for Tehran, called for a political resolution with Washington and warned against regional tensions spilling over into Yemen.
Araghchi also visited Beijing in May shortly before Trump's state visit to China.
Xi and Trump are expected to meet twice more this year - once at Apec in Shenzhen in November and again at the G20 in Miami in December.
With the Middle East conflict already in its seventh month and no end in sight, it is likely to be a recurring topic between Xi and Trump.
Ali Salehian, a senior researcher at the Tehran-based Governance and Policy Think Tank, said Iran did not need to panic over closer US-China engagement, citing the consistency of Beijing's policy on the Middle East and Tehran's resilience to withstand political shifts.
Salehian also saw "more opportunity than threat" for Iran in improved US-China diplomatic ties. "We see opportunities - similar to the mediation role China played between Iran and Saudi Arabia," he said.
Salehian said Tehran had sought to deepen strategic ties with Beijing, a position not likely to change in the near future.
Beijing could also become an economic "anchor of stability" for the Middle East but it needed to go beyond its "wait-and-see" approach by being proactive in regional affairs and translate ideals such as "multipolarity" and "Global South solidarity" into action.
Jesse Marks, founder of Rihla Research and Advisory, a Washington-based consultancy focused on the Middle East, said Iranian authorities would be sceptical of improved Sino-American ties but there was confidence in Tehran that "Beijing will not abandon them politically".
He noted that there was a fundamental internal clash between Iran's diplomatic class and the country's most powerful military branch, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
"Both sides understand that China is unlikely to help the Trump administration end the war, but the bigger issue is the internal struggle for identifying a clear, united Iranian state position on engagement with the US," Marks said.
Diplomatic efforts between Iran and the US have stalled since Trump rejected an Iranian proposal - conveyed through Qatar - to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict.
In addition, Washington is reportedly preparing to send a third aircraft carrier to the region and Trump has threatened to resume military action after the midterm elections in November.
In Tehran, Iran's top diplomat has said the country is "ready for real diplomacy" but would remain steadfast even in an "apocalyptic war".
According to Marks, Beijing had the "legitimacy and economic weight" crucial for Iran's post-war reconstruction and global reintegration, a role that other powers, like Russia, could not easily replicate.
However, Marks said, while warmer ties between Xi and Trump could improve coordination on Iran's nuclear program, this was highly unlikely to fundamentally change regional realities as China was "not a major player in Middle East security".
"Iranian rigidity towards a ceasefire negotiation comes at the expense of Chinese energy interests in Hormuz. So, Chinese leaders have to balance how it encourages Iran back to the negotiating table without undermining their position once at the table."
Jodie Wen, a fellow at Tsinghua University's Centre for International Security and Strategy who specialises in the Middle East, said China's cautious approach to the region avoided US-style heavy-handed intervention and was a conscious strategic choice rather than a reflection of limited capability.
She said China and the US remained the decisive players on the Iran issue, as both European and regional actors had limited leverage and capacity.
"The significance of the US-China summit lies in the positive signal it sends - namely, that when Washington and Beijing build a foundation of strategic stability, regional tensions can begin to ease."
Read the article at SCMP.