Himalaya's 'glacier bankruptcy' threatens water supply for 2 bil. people

By Hankookilbo

• Published Sep 11, 2026 12:05 AM KST

Experts stress rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to avoid bigger catastrophes

In November 2023, Indian investigative news outlet Article 14 published an in-depth report highlighting the crisis facing Himalayan glaciers. Due to global warming, rainfall in Srinagar, Kashmir, fell to just 9.5 millimeters in August, an 87.63 percent drop from the normal 76.8 millimeters. September rainfall was also only 20 millimeters, 73.33 percent below the average of 75 millimeters.

The outlet issued a stark warning: “Glaciers are shrinking across the Himalayan mountain range, and only scattered patches of white snow remain at the foothills where ice once covered the landscape.”

The suffering of local residents was conveyed in vivid detail. Particularly striking were photographs of the Jhelum River, once fed by melting glacier water, reduced to a dry riverbed. Houseboats that had floated on the Jhelum for more than a century were left stranded on the riverbed, while residents waded into the parched river to catch fish.

“From apple harvests, a major source of local income, to drinking water, electricity supplies and livelihoods, everything has begun to suffer as Himalayan glaciers shrink,” Article 14 reported.

Arrival of ‘glacier bankruptcy’ and permanent water shortages

At the time, the glacier crisis was largely viewed as a problem affecting villages in India’s high-altitude regions. Natural disasters in less-developed areas often failed to attract sustained attention in the developed world.

Three years later, the collapse of a Himalayan glacier in Nepal has brought home to the world the devastating power of the climate crisis. As of Sept. 6, the death toll had reached 1,342, with 4,996 people still missing. The victims came from more than 30 countries, including the United States, China, Australia and South Korea.

Experts warn that this tragedy is “not the end, but the beginning.” As Himalayan glaciers continue to shrink, they say, an era of “glacier bankruptcy” is approaching — one in which permanent water shortages will spread across India and large parts of Asia.

Stretching roughly 3,500 kilometers from Afghanistan in the west to Myanmar in the east, the Himalayas are known as “Asia’s water tower,” supplying food, drinking water and energy to some 2 billion people.

The data point to an alarming trajectory. According to a report released in March by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), headquartered in Kathmandu, the rate of glacier loss has doubled since the beginning of the 20th century.

Between 1990 and 2020, roughly 12 percent of the region’s total glacier area disappeared. Glaciers in the basins of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Indus — the sources of some of Asia’s major rivers — shrank by 21 percent, 16 percent and 6 percent, respectively.

The findings are based on a comprehensive survey of approximately 63,700 glaciers across the Himalayas.

The United Nations has likewise reported that global glacier mass has declined by more than 30 percent since 1970, and has warned that glaciers across low- and mid-latitude mountain ranges could disappear entirely within decades.

Global warming is also reducing the snowfall needed to replenish glaciers. An ICIMOD analysis found that snow persistence across the Himalayas in 2025-26 fell 27.8 percent below the historical average, reaching its lowest level in more than two decades.

Snow persistence refers to the length of time snow remains on the ground after falling without melting. The region has become locked into a vicious cycle: rising temperatures lead to less snowfall, remaining snow disappears earlier, and glaciers are increasingly unable to regenerate.

Experts warn smaller Himalayan glaciers are melting faster

Dr. Zhang Qiangong, head of the Climate and Environmental Crisis Department at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), is a leading expert on the climate crisis who has long warned of the dangers of “glacier bankruptcy.” In a written interview with the Hankook Ilbo, he said the collapse of Himalayan glaciers “has moved beyond environmental change and entered the stage of a water-resource catastrophe.”

Q: What is the current state of the Himalayan crisis?

A: The Himalayas are warming rapidly, and glaciers are melting at an alarming rate. We are losing a vast natural reservoir of water in real time. At the same time, we are witnessing communities being placed at risk, as seen in the recent devastating floods in Nepal. The floods are a grave warning of the dangers posed by the glacier crisis.

Q: How severe is the crisis on the ground?

A: Public attention tends to focus on the giant glaciers. But the truly serious problem is the small glaciers, those covering less than 0.5 square kilometers, which account for 75 percent of Himalayan glaciers. Small glaciers are particularly vulnerable to climate change and could disappear much earlier than larger glaciers.

Q: When will the water shortage crisis become a reality?

A: We expect to reach "peak water" around 2050. Peak water is the point at which river runoff from melting glaciers reaches its maximum and then enters a permanent decline. During the period when glaciers are melting rapidly, the risk of glacier-related disasters such as the recent floods in Nepal increases. After the tipping point, communities will begin to suffer from water shortages.

Q: What problems will water shortages cause?

A: Agricultural uncertainty will increase dramatically, particularly in areas that depend on meltwater from glaciers. Areas near the Himalayas will face shortages of drinking water, while declining river flows will reduce the reliability of hydropower generation. For this reason, the glacier crisis is directly linked to long-term water security.

Zhang called for a global response. “There is no technology on Earth capable of artificially restoring glaciers that have disappeared on this scale,” he said. “The top priority must be rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.”

He also urged Nepal and other countries bordering the Himalayas to immediately strengthen cross-border disaster-prevention cooperation, including transparent sharing of glacier and snow-monitoring data, the establishment of early warning systems and the creation of detailed risk maps.

'Every country for itself’ will not work; global cooperation is essential

Despite such warnings, major powers are competing for access to Himalayan water rather than cooperating to curb global warming.

China is pushing ahead with plans to build the Medog mega-dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which flows from the Tibetan Plateau toward India, citing carbon neutrality and the need to secure electricity supplies. The project would give China greater control over water resources and potentially allow it to regulate flows toward downstream countries such as India.

India has publicly opposed the project, describing it as a security threat and a potential “water bomb.” India has also responded by planning more than a dozen dams on rivers along its border with China. It is additionally developing measures such as “artificial glacier towers,” which freeze river water in high-altitude arid areas, and underground reservoirs to store meltwater.

Critics warn that such unchecked development in the Himalayas could destabilize the terrain around glacier zones, accelerating both glacier collapse and melting.

China and India are not alone. The United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), in its “Global Water Bankruptcy” report released in January, said the number of water-related conflicts had surged from 20 in 2010 to more than 400 in 2024.

The report also found that 75 percent of the world's population lives in areas where water supplies are insecure, while roughly 4 billion people experience severe water shortages for at least one month each year. Water scarcity has consequently emerged as a potential trigger for conflicts between countries.

Nepal pays the bill for developed countries’ carbon emissions

Nepal is calling on the international community to take responsibility. The country of roughly 30 million people relies heavily on agriculture and tourism, and its contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is less than 0.1 percent.

According to the Global Carbon Project (GCP), the United States has been responsible for the largest share of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions since 1750, accounting for 24 percent of the global total, followed by China at 15 percent, Russia at 6.7 percent, Germany at 5.2 percent and the United Kingdom at 4.4 percent. Nepal's share was approximately 0.01 percent.

Yet the recent collapse of Himalayan glaciers has shown that Nepal is on the front line of the climate crisis.

The estimated cost of recovering from the latest disaster in Nepal has been put at between $4 billion and $5 billion, equivalent to roughly 10 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).

Nepal's Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal said in a television interview on Sept. 1 that “although Nepal's greenhouse gas emissions are virtually negligible, we are paying the ultimate price for a global crisis that we did not cause.”

He added, “Support for Nepal from major countries is not a matter of charity, but of legal and moral responsibility.”

Nepal has stressed that addressing the climate crisis is ultimately a matter of global survival. Khanal said that if Himalayan glaciers disappear, the water security of more than 2 billion people in South Asia who depend on rivers such as the Ganges and Trishuli will be permanently threatened.

“We are raising this issue not just for Nepal, but for the survival of civilization throughout South Asia,” he said.

The world will now be watching to see whether the international community responds to Nepal's appeal for action on climate change. Nepal's Prime Minister Balendra Shah is expected to attend the U.N. General Assembly this month and call for greater international attention to the climate catastrophe.

The 81st U.N. General Assembly opened at U.N. headquarters in New York Sept. 8, with the high-level general debate beginning Sept. 22.

Nepal may also pursue legal action against other countries. In July last year, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an advisory opinion stating that countries have obligations under international law to address the climate crisis and that failure to meet those obligations could give rise to state responsibility. The opinion could pave the way for Nepal or other vulnerable countries to pursue climate litigation against other states.

This article from the Hankook Ilbo, the sister publication of The Korea Times, is translated by a generative AI system and edited by The Korea Times.