Why the largest-ever US-Philippine drill, and Japan's role in it, is making China uneasy

Philippine soldiers pose for a picture in front of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) Type 88 surface-to-ship missile launcher and the U.S. Marine Air Defense Integrated System (MADIS), during the Joint Task Force (JTF) Maritime Strike, part of Balikatan, the annual joint military exercises between the United States and the Philippines, at Culili Point Sand Dunes, Paoay, Ilocos Norte province, Philippines, May 6. Reuters-Yonhap

By SCMP

• Published May 24, 2026 10:24 AM KST

A U.S. and Philippine-led military drill seen as targeting China grew this year into the largest yet, prompting Chinese experts to warn that the annual event will exacerbate regional instability amid heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

The decades-old drill called Balikatan, which means shoulder to shoulder, reached record highs in terms of scale, scope of participation and training complexity this year, according to a report published by the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) this week.

From April 20 to May 8, seven countries — the Philippines, the U.S., Canada, France, Japan, Australia and New Zealand — sent 17,000 personnel to train along the Philippines' western sealine, stretching from the South China Sea to the northern Philippine island of Itbayat, just 155km (96 miles) from Taiwan's main island.

Tensions have run high in the Indo-Pacific in recent years, with increasing incidents occurring between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.

And relations between Beijing and another participant, Japan, have been further tested, particularly since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested in November that a crisis in the Taiwan Strait could justify military intervention, crossing one of Beijing's red line.

"The scale of the exercise is massive and it is becoming more complex. This is the trend," said Hu Bo, director of the Beijing-based SCSPI. "It will, for sure, exacerbate regional instability.

"It can't really change regional balances. But the more drills they conduct, the more responses will be coming from [the People's Liberation Army]."

The Balikatan drill, initiated by the U.S. and the Philippines in 1981, has long been a symbol of military alliances between the countries.

In addition to the 14,000 Philippine and American personnel attending this year's event, Japan sent 1,400 military personnel from its Self-Defence Forces. Canada sent 600 personnel and Australia sent 400, with the remainder coming from France and New Zealand, according to the SCSPI report, which said the size of the naval fleet taking part in the exercise was "unprecedented".

Ding Duo, director of the Research Centre for International and Regional Issues at the Hainan Island-based National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said the Philippines also arranged exercises before and after Balikatan.

"Every year, the three months including April, May and June have become an exercise season for the Philippines. They turned it into a carnival-like event," Ding said. "It stirs up regional tensions and is turning into a conflict point of military confrontation."

On Itbayat Island, the joint forces conducted long-range manoeuvres, maritime strikes and airfield control training.

Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the U.S., the Philippines and Japan, do not formally recognise the island as independent, although Washington is committed to supplying it with defensive weapons and opposes any forcible takeover.

On a beach on Palawan, an island in the southwestern Philippines, a 500-strong force from the U.S., the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand simulated an enemy amphibious landing and conducted joint fire strikes against simulated landing forces, the SCSPI report said.

In northern Ilocos Norte province, 800 people from the U.S., the Philippines and Japan conducted counter-landing live-fire exercises that targeted one surface vessel drone and two hypothetical amphibious landing vehicles, which appeared to resemble PLA Type 05 amphibious fighting vehicles.

"The intention is very clear: it is to conduct a rehearsal for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, or rather, to demonstrate a deterrent presence," Ding said.

"On the surface, the Philippines is using this to maintain its assertions in the west Philippine Sea and South China Sea; but in fact, judging from its training subjects, the missiles launched from the training, including the Tomahawk cruise missile and Japan's Type 88 ship-to-ship missile system, it's all targeted at the Taiwan Strait."

This year, Japan took part in the exercise for the first time and deployed its Type 88 shore-to-ship missile system for the first time. In another first, the U.S. also test-fired the Typhon mid-range missile system in the Philippines.

Japan's participation in Balikatan 2026 also marks the first time it has sent combat troops to Philippine soil since World War II, when Japan invaded and occupied the country.

On Tuesday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr will visit Japan for a four-day state visit.

"The integration and strategic alliances among the U.S., Japan and the Philippines in military and security have entered a fast track," Ding said.

In addition to the Philippines, some members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and other countries attended Balikatan as observers.

"It's unlikely Asean countries would participate in this because it is very targeted. Asean countries all know this exercise targets China, so they won't easily take part in it or pick a side," said Liu Xiaobo, a researcher with the Beijing-based Grandview Institution think tank.

Similarly, Ding said the Asean countries were staying silent because they were cautious and did not want to be seen as taking sides.

"Why [are they] not saying anything? Because it involves two outside countries with which they cooperate," Ding said. "They are anxious inside."

Read the article at SCMP.