Amid Mideast unrest, is China next?

BEIJING — First, Tunisia. Second, Egypt. Now, Libya — a work in progress. The revolution is unfolding. And people are whispering: Is China next? CNN makes one think so. But Chinese analysts say nay.

“It’s delusional to expect that China is next,” said Zhu Feng, a professor of international studies at Peking University in Beijing.

Zhu, just like many observers, recognizes that China has many problems, including the widening wealth gap and corruption. “But China is different,” he said.

“The problem is that there aren’t going to be enough people who will take to the streets, protesting en masse.

People will do that if they think that’s the only resort to resolve their dissatisfaction.” Zhao Jing, a well-known blogger who goes by the online name of “Michael Anti,” agrees.

“I don’t think the anger of the people is strong enough to call for a revolution.” Inspired by regime change in Tunisia, Egyptians launched weeks of prodemocracy protests, finally ousting Hosni Mubarak. Now as similar protests are unfolding in Libya, pundits are beginning to wonder whether the “Jasmine Revolution” will see a chain reaction in the Middle Kingdom as well.

For some Chinese people this thought almost amounts to blasphemy, if not wishful thinking. “It’s irresponsible to hype up something that’s not here in China, hoping it really happens,” said Liu Jiangyong, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University located across the street from Peking University.

Beijing already had its first taste of the Jasmine Revolution last Sunday, but its impact turned out to be a mere scratch. Dozens of people gathered downtown after an online letter urged them to take to the streets, soon to be easily dispersed by the police.

There was no chanting or signs, but rather standing and watching.

Analysts say China is neither Tunisia nor Egypt. “In the Arab unrest, the leaders were not tuned in to people.

They were aloof from them,” said Liu Ming of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

“China’s leaders pay close attention to people’s lives, often meeting with them and visiting the countryside.” Chinese analysts agree that even though there is dissatisfaction, people are not likely to demonstrate the way those in Arab countries did. The public may complain but most of them, they argue, want incremental social changes to keep the Chinese system evolving.

“That’s why I don’t think Beijing is like a volcano,” said Zhu.

Zhao, the blogger, said some outside media outlets are going too far with their desire to see such a revolution to happen in China. “The Western media is too confident about what’s going to happen in China. I am Chinese.

And as a Chinese person who lives in Beijing, I see no chance of that.” South Korea is paying attention to China. In South Korea’s past pro-democracy demonstration experience, it was college students and young adults who were at the forefront of civil protests against the authoritarian governments during the military dictatorship period. What about Chinese college students? Zhao brushed aside the idea of the young Chinese taking to the streets.

“They are the generation that benefited the most from China’s rapid economic development. I don’t think they are ready to disown what they have,” he said.

Analysts also point out that the Communist Party’s grip on society is strong and its membership still remains a muchcompeted hot commodity among Chinese college students, who want to use it as a fast-track to success.

The Internet played a major role of getting the information flowing and thus mobilizing people in Arab nations’ Jasmine Revolution. China has the world’s largest number of Internet users. Naturally, some observers are increasingly turning to the potential of the Internet in China.

Sure, the Internet is changing Chinese people. They are expressing their opinions there.

But their complaints are largely about their immediate daily lives such as soaring housing prices, buying cars, traffic jams, and air pollution, according to Chinese analysts. While they also complain about corrupt government officials and demand justice, “their demands are not about changes in the Chinese political structure,” said Zhao.

Yet it remains to be seen how things will evolve from here, as on Wednesday an anonymous online statement on Boxun.com, a Chinese language website run in the United States, urged people to turn out on Feb. 27 in 18 major cities across the nation.

“The turnout and events on Feb. 27 will be something to watch,” observed an analysis by STRATFOR, a global intelligence company, in a report sent out to clients Thursday, speculating whether this will create an opening for dissent or the government will choose to suppress the gatherings while the whole world will be watching. “The organizer(s) have certainly made the situation challenging for Beijing,” it said.

Global Times, published by the Communist Party’s mouthpiece, People’s Daily, this week called for “maturity” from citizens, especially people with social influence, not to be swayed by what’s happening in the Middle East. “China’s intellectuals, especially those with the power of discourse and various social resources, should contribute to social stability, rather than undermine it by encouraging trouble,” it said.