Sports analytics firm gives Korea 90% chance of reaching World Cup knockouts
South Korean players jog before a training session for the FIFA World Cup at Chivas Verde Valle in Zapopan, Mexico, June 19. Yonhap
GUADALAJARA, Mexico — With one match remaining in the group stage at the ongoing FIFA World Cup, South Korea have more than a 90 percent chance of reaching the next knockout phase, a sports analytics firm said Saturday.
According to Opta Analyst, South Korea have a 91.08 percent chance to advance to the round of 32.
In Group A, South Korea sit in second place with three points, after a 2-1 win over Czechia and a 1-0 loss to Mexico. With six points, Mexico have already clinched the top spot in Group A and thus a place in the round of 32. Czechia and South Africa each have one point, with Czechia occupying third place thanks to their superior goal difference.
South Korea will close out group play against South Africa at 7 p.m. Wednesday at Estadio Monterrey, or 10 a.m. Thursday (South Korean time). South Korea control their own destiny, as they will seal the runner-up spot with at least a draw against South Africa.
With a record 48 nations in action, the top two teams from each of the 12 groups will automatically qualify for the knockout phase. They will be joined by the eight best third-place teams.
There is also a scenario in which South Korea may still reach the round of 32 even with a loss to South Africa. A combination of a South Korea loss and a loss or a draw by Czechia against Mexico will leave South Korea in third place.
However, a South Korea loss and a Czechia win on the last day will eliminate South Korea as the last-place team in Group A.
If South Korea finish as the Group A runner-up, then they will take on the runner-up from Group B in the round of 32.
Through two matches, Canada lead Group B, followed by Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar. Canada and Switzerland each have four points, but Canada have the better goal difference. They will square off Wednesday with the top seed at stake.
Opta predicted that South Korea will meet Switzerland in the round of 32 and gave South Korea only a 35.92 percent chance to win.
If it materializes, the matchup against Switzerland will be an opportunity for South Korea to avenge a World Cup loss from 20 years ago.
South Korea lost to Switzerland 2-0 in the final Group G match at the 2006 World Cup in Germany, where a victory would have sent South Korea into the round of 16. South Korea finished third in their group with four points, the only team in the tournament to miss the knockout phase with that many points.
In the last official FIFA rankings before the World Cup, South Korea were 25th, six spots below Switzerland.
Following a loss to Mexico on Thursday, South Korea had a light recovery day Friday and rested Saturday. They will travel to Monterrey, about 640 kilometers north of Guadalajara, on Sunday.