Jung Min-ho has worked as a staff writer at The Korea Times since 2012, mostly covering social and political issues. He currently belongs to the Politics & City Desk where he covers topics such as health, labor and human rights. Prior to joining the team, he was responsible for covering North Korea and sports. His article about a biosecurity breach of Middle East respiratory syndrome won him an award from the Korea Science Journalists Association in 2016. He is also the co-author of the book, "Medical Pioneers of Korea" (2019). He served as the head of the international relations committee at the Journalists Association of Korea from 2021 to 2023.
AI expected to heavily cut jobs in sales, manufacturing over next decade
A man checks job information on a bulletin board at the Seoul Western Employment Center in Seoul, Wednesday. Newsis
By Jung Min-ho
Jobs vulnerable to automation to face steep decline while health care, high‑skill tech roles emerge as winners: report
Korea’s latest 10-year employment outlook has delivered a stark message for workers: Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer a distant threat, but a significant force reshaping which jobs will expand, which will vanish and what skills people will need to stay employed.
According to a 2024-34 workforce projection released Thursday by the state-run Korea Employment Information Service (KEIS), employees in routine-based, easily automated roles will face the heaviest job losses over the next decade, as new technologies rapidly transform the structure of labor demand.
Sales workers are projected to suffer the steepest losses, with employment in sales jobs expected to shrink by 268,000 over the next decade. Researchers tie this directly to the spread of online commerce and unmanned or self‑checkout systems.
Machine operators and assemblers are next in line. Employment of these workers, who run equipment and production lines in factories, is projected to fall by around 180,000 jobs as companies roll out industrial robots, AI‑driven production control and fully fledged “smart factory” systems.
Skilled craft and related jobs — including those in metalworking, automotive components and parts of the chemical and textile industries — are projected to lose 128,000 positions as more tasks become standardized, codified and carried out by high‑precision machinery.
Korea Times graphic by Cho Sang-won
The same pattern shows up at the industry level. Wholesale and retail trade — the backbone for many sales workers — is forecast to see employment fall by 431,000 jobs by 2034 as e‑commerce platforms, AI‑enhanced logistics and digital payment systems take over a growing share of transactions and inventory management.
In manufacturing, conventional car production, apparel and fur, metal processing and parts of chemical manufacturing are all projected to shrink as many companies restructure and automate, including through the shift from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles.
Restaurants, bars and other food service businesses are also expected to see employment fall as ordering, payment and some kitchen tasks become more automated.
In contrast, jobs that cannot be easily replaced, or ones that can be complemented by AI, are set to grow. Highly skilled professional workers — including specialists in health care and information technology — are projected to gain 547,000 positions. Service workers are expected to gain another 240,000 jobs, driven largely by surging demand for care and personal services in an aging society.
Health and social welfare stand out in particular. Employment in this sector is expected to jump by 982,000 as the nation’s population ages and demand for medical care, nursing and long‑term support accelerates. Officials note that AI tools will help with diagnostics, triage, scheduling and paperwork, but will not replace the core hands‑on caregiving at the heart of these roles.
These AI-driven disruptions are unfolding in an economy already facing a shortage of workers.
The labor force is projected to increase by about 346,000 through 2029, then shrink by about 210,000 between 2030 and 2034. That marks a total increase of just 136,000 over 10 years, intensifying the challenges posed by automation and AI. Analysts warn that the combination of a stagnant workforce and rapid technological change could create pressure on wages, productivity and social safety nets, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on human labor.
“Parts of the workforce that can be replaced by AI include fields like publishing and software development, where there is concern that junior developers will become less necessary, and this is already starting to show up in reality,” a KEIS researcher said. “What is clear is that, at the broader job category level, professional jobs will increase significantly in the future, whereas, under the influence of automation, occupations such as machine and equipment operators are clearly going to decline.”
The government says it is trying to get ahead of that shift. At a meeting of the Employment Policy Council under the Ministry of Employment and Labor held Thursday, Labor Minister Kim Young-hoon said shortages of workers and AI-driven industrial transformation are “structural challenges.”
“We will continue our policy efforts to ensure that, amid demographic change and AI-driven technological innovation, no group is left behind, everyone can take part in the labor market and gaps in the workplace are reduced so that we achieve growth together,” he added.