Elementary school class sizes forecast to shrink to single digits by 2034
Children cheer during a sports day event at Seogyo Elementary School in Mapo District, Seoul, May 3. Korea Times photo by Park Si-mon
The number of students per class in elementary schools could drop to the single digits in 10 years due to the declining birthrate, leading to a significant reduction in the school-age population, Yonhap News Agency reported, Thursday.
Currently, the average class size is around 21.1 students. However, by 2034, this number is expected to fall to below 10 students per class, marking the first time it will drop to single digits.
Hong In-gi, head of policy at the Good Teachers Movement, based his predictions on the school-age population estimates released by Statistics Korea in June of last year.
If the population continues to decrease at the current rate, elementary school class sizes could further decline to 5.5 students per class by 2060 and a mere 2.7 students per class by 2070, according to the analysis.
Even under a more moderate population decline scenario, the middle variant projection indicates that the average number of students per class will still drop to single digits, reaching 9.8 students per class by 2034, 8.7 by 2060 and 6.0 by 2070.
Hong presented these projections at the Escape from Low Birthrate Crisis, Education Reform Forum held Thursday at the Seosomun Shrine History Museum in Jung District, Seoul, where a group of policymakers and lawmakers participated.
Hong emphasized the urgent need for preemptive measures, saying, "The current declining rate of student numbers is excessively rapid, and the entire system we've maintained over a long time could collapse in an instant. It's time to set up early warning signals."
He highlighted that the areas most affected by the decline in student numbers would be regions where even small schools might disappear. "If elementary schools close in these regions, the influx of young people will decrease, and the villages themselves could vanish," he said.
This article was translated by generative AI and edited by staff of The Korea Times.