[COVER STORY] Scaled-back drills cast uncertainty over OPCON transfer timeline - The Korea Times

COVER STORY Scaled-back drills cast uncertainty over OPCON transfer timeline

Military vehicles are parked at a U.S. military base in Dongducheon, Gyeonggi Province, Wednesday. South Korean and U.S. military authorities decided to end the ongoing Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise early following U.S. President Donald Trump’s call to scale back the joint military drills. Yonhap

Military vehicles are parked at a U.S. military base in Dongducheon, Gyeonggi Province, Wednesday. South Korean and U.S. military authorities decided to end the ongoing Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise early following U.S. President Donald Trump’s call to scale back the joint military drills. Yonhap

Seoul called in US ambassador over Trump's post

The scaling back of South Korea-U.S. joint military drills, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s social media post calling for a reduction, has increased uncertainty in Seoul’s push for an earlier transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) from Washington, as the reduced exercise will likely limit the opportunity to evaluate Seoul’s readiness to lead the combined forces.

The Lee Jae Myung administration has sought to advance verification of the Combined Forces Command’s Full Operational Capability (FOC) under South Korean leadership during the ongoing Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise and use the results to discuss a target year for OPCON transfer at the next Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) in October.

But the reduced training is expected to complicate that plan, including the government’s efforts to pursue OPCON transfer around 2028.

The allies on Wednesday announced that this year's UFS would end on Friday, six days earlier than its original Aug. 28 end date, while scaling back or adjusting some field training exercises. The move came after Trump asked his defense chief to scale back the drills while repeatedly expressing interest in resuming dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Trump's sudden move apparently caught Seoul off guard, with Foreign Minister Cho Hyun saying neither the Korean government nor U.S. officials knew about it until Trump posted his comments on social media.

Cho said at the National Assembly that the ministry “called in” U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel on the day of Trump’s social media posting. “[After Trump’s posting] I ordered the Korean Embassy in the U.S. to discuss the issue with relevant organizations there," he said. "In Seoul, we also summoned the U.S. ambassador and talked about this.”

Asked if Cho himself met Steel, the minister said, “It’s difficult to say who did.”

Kim Yeoul-soo, a senior researcher at the Korea Research Institute for Military Affairs, said the changes would inevitably affect OPCON-related verification.

“The verification was supposed to take place this time, but if we can’t properly carry it out, it will inevitably have an impact,” Kim said.

Kim said the OPCON timeline could face delays, particularly if the current approach to joint exercises continues into next year. He stopped short, however, of saying that a transfer around 2028 would become impossible, noting that the situation could change depending on future U.S.-North Korea dialogue and whether full-scale training resumes.

Rep. Yu Yong-weon of the main opposition People Power Party, a member of the National Assembly’s National Defense Committee, was more skeptical about the 2028 timeline.

“If the exercise ends early without key counteroffensive training, we won’t be able to properly verify the capabilities needed for OPCON transfer,” Yu said.

“If the government still pushes for a transfer in 2028 despite that, it would be unrealistic and could create problems.”

Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back answers questions about the early termination of the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise during a plenary meeting of the National Assembly’s Legislation and Judiciary Committee in Seoul, Wednesday. Yonhap

Yu also said it would be difficult to set a target year at the October SCM as planned, as the original plan was to first conduct the verification during the joint military drills and then use the results to determine the timeline.

Moon Chung-in, a James Laney distinguished professor at Yonsei University and former special adviser to then-President Moon Jae-in for foreign policy and national security, took a different view.

“There is a trade-off between inter-Korean tension reduction and verification of combined defense capabilities for the transfer of wartime operational capabilities. Managing it will be a tough task,” Moon said.

“But the Lee government should push for the transfer of wartime OPCON as scheduled. President Trump and Secretary (of Defense Pete) Hegseth will support the transfer. It is so more because the U.S. unilateral suspension of the joint military exercise is responsible for delaying the verification process.”

Eom Hyo-sik, secretary-general of the Korea Defense Security Forum, said normal joint exercises are needed to test South Korea’s ability to command combined forces.

“Under the existing process, the exercises have to be conducted normally to test the South Korean military’s command capabilities required for the OPCON transfer,” Eom said. “As things stand, this is not a favorable situation for proceeding with the transfer as planned.”

Eom said failure to complete the necessary verification during UFS would make it “procedurally difficult” to agree on a transfer date at the SCM. He also warned that differences could widen between Seoul, which wants an earlier transfer, and Washington, which may see less reason to rush the process.

FOC verification is only part of the conditions required for OPCON transfer. Kim said South Korea’s ability to respond to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats must also be verified, while pointing to shortcomings in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.

Bahk Eun-ji

Bahk Eun-ji has been with The Korea Times since 2012, building a career across multiple desks. She began at the Business Desk, where she conducted in-depth interviews with key figures in Korea's corporate world. Later, she moved to the Politics & City Desk, focusing on education policy and social affairs. She later served as team leader of the digital content team, leading curation efforts on the newspaper’s homepage and reshaping print stories for social media audiences to enhance digital reach. Now back on the Politics Desk, she covers the National Assembly and the Ministry of National Defense, with a renewed focus on political developments.

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