Anna Jiwon Park has been covering the politics at The Korea Times since the summer of 2024, when she joined the press pool for the Office of the President in Korea. Prior to that, she spent about five years reporting extensively on financial markets, regulatory authorities and the financial industry. She joined The Korea Times in 2019 after spending eight years as a broadcast journalist at Arirang TV, Korea’s leading global broadcaster, covering politics, defense and culture.
Korea’s upcoming presidential election to reflect generational, ideological shifts
An employee is checking voting ballots at a publishing place in Anyang, Gyeonggi Province, Tuesday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk
By Anna J. Park
The June 3 presidential election will be the first in Korea’s history where voters aged 60 and over outnumber those under 40, marking a significant demographic shift that could reshape the country’s political dynamics.
Despite the conventional belief that older voters support conservatives while younger voters tend to favor progressives, both the conservative People Power Party (PPP) and the liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) are wary of relying on these assumptions in the snap election that has been shaped by the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol.
According to data released late last week by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, a total of 44.39 million people are eligible to vote in the upcoming June election.
Voters in their 60s and 70s now make up about 33 percent of the electorate, surpassing the combined 28 percent of those in their 20s (13.1 percent) and 30s (14.9 percent). The remaining 38 percent consists of voters in their 40s and 50s.
Compared to the last presidential election, the proportion of voters aged 60 and over has increased by about 3 percentage points, while the share of those in their 20s and 30s has decreased by approximately 2 percentage points.
Regionally, Gyeonggi Province has the largest number of eligible voters with 11.71 million (26.4 percent), followed by Seoul with 8.28 million (18.7 percent), and Busan with 2.86 million (6.5 percent). Sejong has the fewest voters, with 307,028 (0.7 percent).
A total of 258,254 overseas Koreans have registered to vote, including both absentee voters and those casting ballots at consulates.
Women slightly outnumber men among voters, totaling 22.41 million (50.5 percent) compared to 21.97 million men (49.5 percent).
Generations collide: age vs. cohort effect
Eom Kyeong-young, director of the Zeitgeist Institute, identified two key factors influencing generational political shifts: the age effect and the cohort effect.
"The age effect refers to the natural political shift that occurs as individuals grow older. Older generations, particularly those in their 60s and beyond, tend to become more conservative over time," Eom explained in an interview with The Korea Times. "In Korea, this is especially true for those who experienced the Korean War and the rapid industrialization under President Park Chung-hee. These formative experiences have contributed to a more conservative outlook."
The cohort effect, he said, "refers to how political views formed in youth can persist throughout one’s life."
Eom pointed to Korea's so-called "386 Generation" — those born in the 1960s and 1970s — as a classic example of the cohort effect. Having spent their youth during Korea’s democratization movements in the 1980s and 1990s, many in this group continue to hold strong pro-North Korea or pro-China views, reflecting the lasting impact of their formative experiences. Now, as they age into what is referred to as the "586 Generation" (the 386 Generation, 20 years later), they still maintain these perspectives.
These two factors help explain the political affiliations that can be broadly categorized by age group. In general, individuals in their 60s and older tend to lean conservative, supporting the PPP, while those in their 40s and 50s are more likely to favor the DPK.
Ballots are sealed at the Incheon Election Commission, Monday, under party-appointed oversight, marking the start of onboard voting for the presidential election. From Monday to Thursday, 3,051 voters on 454 Korean vessels, including deep-sea fishing boats, will cast their votes. Yonhap
However, Eom notes that voters in their 20s and 30s are exhibiting a shift away from traditional ideological divides. Instead of following age-based patterns, this group’s political leanings are increasingly shaped by gender. Women tend to lean more liberal, while men are more conservative. Eom emphasized that this trend reflects a broader global pattern.
"Women in their 20s and early 30s are increasingly focused on gender issues, while men are more concerned with matters like reverse discrimination. This dynamic is not unique to Korea; it can also be observed in the U.S. and Europe, though it may be more pronounced here," he explained.
Eom also noted that women in their 20s and 30s tend to be more engaged with gender issues, often leaning progressive as a result. However, as they reach their late 30s, many shift focus to other concerns, contributing to a gradual turn toward conservatism.
He also attributed the conservative leanings of young men in Korea to several factors, including a backlash against certain youth subcultures, such as male-dominated online communities, and frustration over the country’s economic difficulties — often referred to as "Hell Joseon," a term that Koreans use to describe the harsh competitive realities, particularly in terms of economic challenges, job insecurity and social inequality.
This shared experience has created a cohort effect. Members of this generation generally favor stronger ties with the U.S. and Japan, while adopting a more neutral stance toward China and North Korea.
The youngest voters, particularly those in their late teens and early 20s, tend to be less politically engaged. Often indifferent to ideology, members of generations Z and Alpha show limited interest in political movements. This disengagement is especially pronounced among late teens, who are largely unconcerned with gender issues and less aligned with traditional political divides.
Presidential candidates' campaign banners hang on a street in Seoul, Friday. Yonhap
"Ultimately, this presidential election will likely be a generational showdown between the more than 33 percent of voters aged 60 and above, where the age effect comes into play, and the 38 percent of the 4050 generation with a progressive-oriented cohort driven by value leadership and vision," he said.
Eom added that many of the candidates' pledges are shaped by this generational divide. For example, many policies of Lee Jae-myung of the DPK, aim to strengthen the interests of the 4050 generation (those aged 40 to 50), such as supporting labor unions, extending retirement ages and emphasizing basic income.
"On the other hand, the PPP, with strong support from those aged 60 and above and young men in their 20s, focuses on economic sustainability. Their policies, such as pension reform, nuclear energy and economic growth, differentiate themselves based on their base of support," he explains.
He also notes that this generational impact is reflected in foreign policy as well.
"The 4050 generation — the so-called 586 generation — who were involved in the pro-democracy movements, grew up watching martial arts movies, Hong Kong noir films and later learned about Mao Zedong's revolution at university. During the democratization process, they came to accept China and North Korea. However, they harbor a sense of hostility toward Japan. This sentiment is evident in Lee Jae-myung's rhetoric," he explained.
He said the younger generation doesn't view North Korea and China as rational. They tend to have a more anti-China stance, and pro-U.S. or trilateral cooperation views, he said.
Voters aged 60 and above are often driven by nationalism, he added.
"They are deeply interested in building a 'great Korea,' in the style of Trump, as they were deeply influenced by the high growth era of Park Chung-hee. Conservative parties in Korea are rooted in patriotism. While nationalism may sound left-leaning, in this context it aligns more with right-wing ideals," he noted.