World’s largest betting site puts Lee Jae-myung’s election odds at 90 percent
Democratic Party of Korea presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung steps on stage during a major campaign rally at Yangsan Water Park in South Gyeongsang Province, Thursday. Yonhap
With less than two weeks remaining before the June 3 presidential election, Democratic Party of Korea candidate Lee Jae-myung appears to be the overwhelming front-runner, not only in domestic polls but also on the global stage, according to market sentiment from international investors.
Polymarket, a U.S.-based prediction market often cited as the world’s largest betting platform, currently gives Lee a 90 percent chance of winning the presidency.
As of May 17, his closest rivals trailed far behind: conservative People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo stood at 6.8 percent, while minor conservative Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok held just 3.3 percent.
Although not a scientifically grounded analysis, the betting figures reflect investor expectations and signal Lee’s dominant position in the race.
Expressions like “Lee inevitability” and “Eo-Dae-Myung” (a Korean acronym meaning “It’s going to be Lee Jae-myung anyway”) have become popular shorthand among political observers, and this sentiment appears to be mirrored globally.
Polymarket operates like a betting exchange, where participants wager on outcomes much like in horse racing. For instance, if the payout for correctly picking the winner is $1, a 90 percent probability means betters must stake 90 cents to bet on Lee and 10 cents to bet against him.
As of May 17, the total volume wagered on the Korean presidential election on Polymarket exceeded $11.8 million (16.5 billion won), reflecting intense global interest in the outcome.
Polymarket’s track record has drawn attention in past elections. In the U.S. presidential election last November, the platform correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, placing his odds at 66 percent in mid-October and above 50 percent on the eve of the election.
A projection chart from Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction site, shows Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung with a 90 percent chance of winning Korea’s June 3 presidential election as of 6 p.m. on May 17. Screenshot from Polymarket website
However, Korean law prohibits individuals from participating in overseas betting platforms like Polymarket. Under local statutes, including the Criminal Act, and the Game Industry Promotion Act, betting on unauthorized platforms constitutes illegal gambling.
Recent domestic polling also supports the perception of Lee’s lead. According to a Gallup Korea survey released May 16, voter support stood at 51 percent for Lee, 29 percent for Kim Moon-soo, and 8 percent for Lee Jun-seok.
The survey was conducted via phone interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide from May 13 to 15, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points and a response rate of 16.4 percent. Full details are available on the websites of Gallup Korea and the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
This article from the Hankook Ilbo, a sister publication of The Korea Times, is translated by a generative AI and edited by The Korea Times.