Kwak Yeon-soo is a digital editor at The Korea Times creating, editing and curating digital content for the newspaper’s website, mobile app and social media. She previously covered a diverse array of cultural, political and business topics.
Analysts anticipate high voter turnout, but remain divided over which party will benefit
Officials of the National Election Commission check ballots that were shipped back to the country via diplomatic pouches at Incheon International Airport, Wednesday, with the attendance of observers recommended by the National Assembly. These ballots will then be mailed to regional election commissions and counted on Election Day. Yonhap
By Kwak Yeon-soo
Political analysts have predicted an all-time high in overseas voter turnout will likely lead to increased participation overall in next week’s general elections. However, they remained divided over which parties are likely to benefit from it.
Overseas voter turnout for the April 10 general elections recorded an all-time high of 62.8 percent, according to the national election watchdog.
The National Election Commission (NEC) said 92,923 out of 147,989 registered overseas Koreans participated in the six-day poll that took place at 220 polling stations in 115 countries.
This year's turnout marks the highest level since overseas voting was introduced in the 2012 general elections. Previous turnouts were recorded at 41.4 percent in the 2016 elections and 23.8 percent in the 2020 elections.
Although the ruling People Power Party (PPP) remained silent, the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) welcomed the results, encouraging voters in Korea to cast their ballots in the upcoming elections.
“The record-breaking overseas voter turnout reflects people’s desire for new government,” DPK Chairman Rep. Lee Jae-myung wrote on Facebook, Tuesday.
Analysts said that high overseas voter turnout will likely increase voter participation across the country during the early voting period and on Election Day. According to a survey conducted by the NEC, 76.5 percent of eligible voters responded that they are willing to cast their ballots in the upcoming elections.
“It seems likely that overall voter turnout will hit a record high. Voter turnout for the previous parliamentary elections (in 2020) was 66.2 percent. At that time, the NEC anticipated the voting turnout would be 72.7 percent,” said Park Chang-hwan, a political commentator and professor at Jangan University.
Lee Jong-hoon, a political analyst, agreed, saying, “If overall voter turnout surges, it would mean the elections were successful in targeting younger voters who are conservative leaning.”
However, they were divided over which political party would benefit from the all-time high overseas voter turnout.
“I think high voter turnout reflects overseas Koreans’ disappointment with the Yoon Suk Yeol administration. Many turned away from the ruling party following his appointment of Lee Jong-sup as ambassador to Australia. Whenever Yoon made foreign trips, his approval rating dropped,” Park said.
Lee, however, said overseas Koreans are generally believed to be conservative, and therefore, many could have actually voted in favor of the ruling PPP.
“Overseas voter turnout was the highest ever, but the number of overseas Koreans who registered as voters was the lowest. In other words, only those who registered as voters showed up at polling stations. Those who cast their ballots are usually the elderly who have party loyalty. It's possible that they wanted to back the Yoon administration,” Lee said.
By region, the highest voter turnout was in African countries at 79.3 percent. The Middle East followed at 74 percent with Europe at 73.5 percent. In Asia and the Americas, the rate stood at 62.8 percent and 56.5 percent, respectively.