ANALYSIS Yoon asked to focus on key economic issues at summit with Biden
This combination of two file photos shows South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul, May 10, 2022, and U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington, D.C., May 15, 2022. Leaked U.S. intelligence documents suggesting that Washington spied on South Korea have put the country's president in a delicate situation ahead of a state visit to the U.S. AP-Yonhap
US visit won't fundamentally change Yoon's approval rating: Washington experts
By Kim Yoo-chul
Maintaining a solid job approval rating is of utmost importance to any state leader. Public backing offers leaders the expanded political space and capital needed to drive their strategic policy initiatives.
It is not always true to say that a state leader's low job approval rating should constrain their ability to move forward with foreign policy objectives, but when it comes to relations with the U.S., Japan and North Korea, there is a very high degree of domestic political polarization.
Within that context, if President Yoon Suk Yeol's job approval rating remains consistently low, his administration and foreign policy teams could become much more cautious in managing some of the pending diplomatic challenges that are domestically sensitive.
According to a Gallup Korea poll released on April 14, 65 percent of respondents said they disapproved of Yoon's job performance with only 27 percent approving. It is the first time Yoon's job performance has fallen below 30 percent since the third week of November last year.
The pollster said Yoon's ratings on foreign affairs and the economy were particularly weak and also the core factors behind the decline of his job rating. It presumed that the U.S.' alleged spying on the country, which was shown in leaked Pentagon documents, appeared to have led to the drop of Yoon's job rating.
“Because the country's main ruling and opposition parties will have to move to general election mode, which will happen next April 10, Yoon and his ruling party should focus on finding how he's perceived to better manage foreign affairs and various other economic issues. From this standpoint, President Yoon is asked to report visible achievements in his summit with Biden,” Park Sang-byung, a political commentator in Seoul, said. Yoon will leave for a state visit to the U.S. later this month, the first such visit by a South Korean leader in 12 years.
The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) has 169 Assembly seats followed by the ruling People Power Party (PPP) with 115 seats. The DPK's popularity rating came to 36 percent, followed by the PPP with 31 percent, the Gallup poll showed. The U.S.-South Korea summit is considered crucial to winning Washington's expanded security commitment amid increasing North Korean nuclear threats and in terms of addressing South Korea's concerns over the Biden administration's tech and economic policies after the U.S. launched the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and CHIPS and Science Act.
President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden prepare for a toast during a state dinner at the National Museum of Korea in Seoul, May 21, 2022. AP-Yonhap
Despite the presidential office downplaying the significance of leaked U.S. intelligence documents, which are said to have included sensitive talks between high-level South Korean officials on whether to sell weapons directly to Ukraine, political experts in Seoul say Yoon is now in a difficult situation ahead of his visit to the U.S.
“President Yoon has to raise South Korea's complaint about the leak of classified Pentagon papers when he meets Biden as Yoon's approval rating could go down further if he fails to touch this issue,” a three-term DPK lawmaker told The Korea Times on condition of anonymity.
High pressure but no high expectations
The question is whether Yoon's state visit to the U.S. will eventually help improve his job approval rating while he is facing growing political pressure related to issues over the IRA, evolving nuclear threats by North Korea and historical conflicts with Japan, in addition to the leaked Pentagon documents.
Political analysts say in his summit with Biden, Yoon is advised to focus on setting key deliverables that would satisfy the South Korean public to avoid further harm to the South Korean leader's approval rating.
The invitation Yoon received for a state visit is part of Biden's efforts to keep the U.S.' relationships with key Asian allies strong as a means to counter China's growing economic and military presence, in addition to North Korea's continued military provocations. As a result, Yoon is ideally positioned to report actual achievements in his summit with Biden, according to an aide to former President Moon Jae-in.
“Given the South Korean public's increased awareness toward economic issues, if there is some progress in addressing key South Korean companies' concerns regarding the IRA and CHIPS Act, then I would say this may lead to an improvement of President Yoon's approval rating,” the former presidential aide said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping visits LG Display's manufacturing base in Guangzhou in China's Guangdong province, April 12. Xinhua-Yonhap
The baseline is that while Yoon is surely mindful of his approval rating, his state visit to Washington is much more significant than that because he and Biden are set to reaffirm the value of the alliance on its 70th anniversary, according to leading think tanks in Washington.
“I doubt that President Yoon's meetings in Washington will fundamentally change his approval rating. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had similar hopes for his visit a few months ago, but that didn't really alter his polls either,” Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where he studies U.S.' strategy and alliance dynamics in Asia, told The Korea Times.
Cooper, who previously worked on the White House National Security Council, said that he suspects Yoon and Biden will demonstrate the closeness of the alliance by announcing new cooperation on extended deterrence and supply chain issues, among others.
In a separate call, Joshua Fitt, a fellow for the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS who also focuses on Washington's strategy in East Asia and specializes in Japanese and Korean Peninsula affairs, added one thing, in particular, to look out for is any mention of South Korea's involvement in the quadrilateral security dialogue, known as Quad.
“The joint statement from their (Yoon-Biden) May 2022 summit mentions that Biden welcomes Yoon's interest in the Quad but it will be interesting to see whether the conversation has progressed,” Fitt said, adding he expects the upcoming summit will present a unified message on North Korea, South Korea-Japan rapprochement, rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific and other critical alliance synergies.
Both Cooper and Fitt stressed the document issue will have a minimal effect on the Yoon-Biden summit as it has been reported that the two sides have already engaged in considerable discussion on the topic.
“I do think the document issue will be an irritant, but mostly behind closed doors rather than in public,” Cooper said. “Since the scope of the U.S.-South Korea is so vast and state visit agendas are so tight, any time spent talking about the leaks takes away from more important, forward-looking topics. Similarly, Biden did not discuss them when meeting with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in Belfast,” Fitt said.
Heads of South Korean corporate giants including Samsung Electronics Executive Chairman Lee Jae-yong, SK Chairman Chey Tae-won, Hyundai Motor Executive Chair Chung Euisun and LG Chairman Koo Kwang-mo are set to join Yoon on his visit to the U.S. Announcements regarding South Korean companies' expanded cooperation with U.S. companies in the fields of electric batteries, semiconductors, future vehicles and bio equipment will be made during or after Yoon's trip to the U.S., company officials said.