Koreans pin high hopes on watershed presidential election

Graphic by Cho Sang-won

• Published Jan 1, 2022 8:56 AM KST
• Updated Jan 2, 2022 4:17 PM KST

No matter who wins, 2022 will be turning point for Korea

By Jung Da-min

The year 2022 is expected to be a watershed period for Korea, with the major political event of the presidential election slated for March 9.

Frustrated with the deepening polarization and division of the country, most Koreans, regardless of age, social status or political background, expect to see a major turnaround following the upcoming election.

Though the presidential competition is mainly a race between the rival candidates of the country's two-major parties ― Lee Jae-myung of the ruling liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and Yoon Suk-yeol of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) ― all eyes are on whether the ruling liberal bloc will manage to retain power or if the conservative bloc will succeed in bringing a leadership change.

No matter who wins in the March election, Korea is expected to enter a new era. If elected, Lee is highly likely to expedite reforms that the Moon Jae-in administration has been pushing for and steer the country toward what he calls a “fair society.” If Yoon wins, he will try to reshape the Korean political and economic landscape by changing things fundamentally and eventually turning the nation further into a market principle-centered society.

From 1987, when a direct presidential election system went into effect in Korea, until the right-wing Park Geun-hye government (2013-2017), conservative and liberal administrations had taken power in turn in a 10-year cycle. Conservative presidents reigned from Roh Tae-woo (1988-1993) to the Kim Young-sam (1993-1998) period. Next, liberal presidents Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) and Roh Moo-hyun (2003-2008) were elected. And following them, the conservatives came back into power with Presidents Lee Myung-bak (2008-2013) and Park. After Park was impeached before finishing her five-year term over various charges including corruption, the liberal bloc succeeded in changing the party of the leadership in power with the election of President Moon Jae-in.

The level of attention is particularly high because foreign and economic policies will take different directions depending on which bloc takes the helm. The two candidates are taking contrasting stances on how to distribute wealth and promote economic growth, as well as how to build relations with key allies, including the United States and China.

Bae Jong-chan, an opinion poll expert and head of Insight K, said Lee of the DPK, if elected, will place economic policy priority on resolving polarization and strengthening social welfare systems.

“Lee has consistently called for a universal basic income. He is currently taking a rather soft position on the matter, saying he would not unilaterally push for the basic income policy without social consensus. But it is likely that he would put a stronger drive into introducing a basic income once elected,” Bae said.

In contrast, Bae said that Yoon would shift the focus of economic policies to encouraging entrepreneurial growth over wealth distribution, introducing more company-friendly policies by easing regulations and offering tax incentives.

Bae also expected a clear distinction between the rival candidates in their policy directions in diplomatic and security issues.

“If Yoon is elected, he would emphasize the principle that denuclearization should come first before inter-Korean cooperation, whereas Lee would continue the engagement policies pursued by the Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in governments,” Bae said.

“For other neighboring countries, Lee would try to strike a balance between China and the U.S. amid their growing rivalry, but it would be hard to expect that bilateral relations between South Korea and Japan could improve under Lee's leadership, as he is focused on the historical issues between the countries,” Bae said.

Seoul-Tokyo relations have deteriorated over historical issues including wartime sex slavery and forced labor.

“For Yoon, it is obvious that he would be committed to strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance and improving relations with Japan, considering the figures selected as members of his election camp,” he said.

Cha Jae-won, a professor of special affairs at the Catholic University of Pusan, said conflicts among the different parties in terms of domestic policies and diplomacy with neighboring countries are expected if either Lee or Yoon is elected.

Cha said that Lee's “pragmatic” stance on the government's planned increase of capital gains taxes on multiple home owners, for example, could bring a backlash from supporters of the liberal bloc. Aiming to gain the support of swing voters or centrists, Lee has suggested postponing the timing of the tax increase. But his proposal faced opposition from the incumbent administration, which is focused on normalizing the country's overheated housing market.

“In addition, if Lee wins the presidential election, it is likely that the DPK could also win the subsequent local elections slated for June 1 to select leaders of local governments across the nation. When the DPK already has a supermajority in the National Assembly, accounting for almost 60 percent of the 300 seats, such a monopoly in politics would threaten the democratic principle of checks and balances. Concerns are that Lee could abandon his pragmatic stance to meet the expectations of the liberal bloc supporters only,” Cha said.

Cha also expects that Lee, if elected, could tip the balance of diplomacy in favor of China by engaging North Korea and promoting cooperation with Beijing, while distancing from the U.S.

Conflict and confusion are also expected if Yoon becomes the next president, Cha said.

“While the DPK takes up 60 percent of the Assembly seats, the government power would belong to the PPP. Though it is hard to expect that there will be cooperation between the rival parties under such a situation, the conservative bloc would need to form a coalition government with other opposition parties. But I doubt if the PPP and other opposition parties are ready to form such a coalition, and if our politics could accept such a system, which it has never experienced before,” he said.

Cha also said that Yoon, if elected, could arrest Lee over allegations that he was involved in the highly lucrative and possibly illicit land development project led by a private firm when he was the mayor of Seongnam. But the professor expressed concerns that if Yoon carries out such investigations into cases involving ruling bloc figures, doing so could lead to a vicious cycle of “political retaliation.”

While Yoon emphasizes the importance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, Cha said the PPP candidate should be aware of the fact that South Korea needs to maintain close relations with China especially in terms of trade and the economy.

Presidential race heating up

Currently, the rival candidates are in a tight race as seen in the latest opinion polls.

What stands out in the match between the major blocs this time is that both are more focused on staging smear campaigns against each other. The two have also been unable to find a breakthrough in winning more support from centrists or swing voters, with both Yoon and Lee embroiled in scandals surrounding corruption or illegal activities involving either themselves or their family members.

Political watchers said that more centrists or swing voters could get tired of the mudslinging and become reluctant to cast their votes in the March 9 election. Recent polls also showed that more centrists or swing voters are either delaying their choices or withdrawing their earlier support for a preferred candidate.

Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said that the smear campaigns are likely to continue, as none of the allegations have been cleared, but they are not good strategies as seen in past elections.

“Those in unfavorable situations more actively engage in smear campaigns, as they are desperate to find a breakthrough. But in recent elections, there has been no case of turning the tables with such a strategy. Staging a smear campaign only brings a negative image to a party,” Lee said.

As the parties attempt to discredit each other, the conservative main opposition side is witnessing a further decrease in support rate for its candidate Yoon, allowing his rival Lee of the ruling bloc to take the lead in some of the latest opinion polls.

According to a National Barometer Survey conducted of 1,000 adults from Dec. 27 to 29 and released on Dec. 30, Lee had 39 percent of the support rate, exceeding Yoon's 28 percent. It was the first time for Lee to outperform Yoon beyond the margin of error in the weekly survey since the two were named as the candidates of their respective parties.

But Yoon had 39.8 percent and Lee 38.8 percent in another survey conducted of 1,003 adults on Dec. 27 by Korea Information Research, at the request of the online news outlet, Newspim.

In three other polls conducted in the last week of 2021 by different agencies at the request of three local broadcasters ― KBS, MBC and SBS ― Lee outperformed Yoon beyond the margin of error.

In the survey of 1,000 adults by Hankook Research at the request of KBS, from Dec. 29 to 31 and released on New Year's Day, 39.3 percent of the respondents said they would vote for Lee, followed by Yoon's support rate at 27.3 percent.

Lee also topped the poll of 1,007 adults by Korea Research International at the request of MBC, for the same period, garnering 38.5 percent support to exceed Yoon's 28.4 percent. In the poll of 1,003 adults conducted by Next Research at the request of SBS from Dec. 30 to 31, Lee had 34.9 percent support and Yoon 26 percent.

Further details are available on the websites of the survey agencies or the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.