Moon's new diplomatic lineup raises concerns over ROK-US alliance

Park Jie-won, left, the nominee for national Intelligence Service (NIS) chief, receives condolences from the North Korean leader's sister Kim Yo-jong, right, on behalf of her brother upon the death of former first lady Lee Hee-ho on June 12, 2019, at Panmunjeom. Park is accompanied by Chung Eui-yong, then-national security adviser. Park's ties long ties with North Korea's Kim dynasty is one of the primary factors in Moon's surprise decision to name him as the NIS chief. Yonhap

By Do Je-hae

• Published Jul 5, 2020 6:48 PM KST
• Updated Jul 6, 2020 2:45 PM KST

Seoul's capacity to convince Washington on easing sanctions still in doubt

By Do Je-hae

There is much interest in what kind of impact President Moon Jae-in's recent decision to fill his diplomatic and national security team with inter-Korean specialists will have on foreign policy.

The big news about Cheong Wa Dae's reshuffle announcement on July 3 was the President's pick of Park Jie-won, one of the main negotiators of the historic 2000 first-ever inter-Korean summit during the 1998-2003 Kim Dae-jung administration, as the chief of the National Intelligence Service (NIS). He is to succeed Suh Hoon, the outgoing NIS chief, after undergoing a National Assembly hearing.

Park is known to be one of the few South Koreans to have met almost all of the key figures in North Korea's Kim dynasty ― the late Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un and Kim Yo-jong. “Park was recommended through various routes,” a senior presidential aide told reporters, Sunday. “His nomination was entirely based on the President's decision.”

The President's picks for other key posts, including the national security adviser and two special advisers for foreign affairs and national security, are also marked by their long careers of negotiating with North Korea. Moon has decided to retain the service of Suh as the new head of the presidential National Security Office (NSO) and has named his former chief of staff Im Jong-seok and outgoing NSO chief Chung Eui-young as special advisers on foreign policy and security. Suh, Im and Chung were at the forefront of Cheong Wa Dae's efforts to realize Moon's previous three summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in 2018.

Moon also nominated ruling party heavyweight and North Korea expert Rep. Lee In-young, a former floor leader of the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), as unification minister to succeed Kim Yeon-chul, who stepped down last month after North Korea's unilateral destruction of the inter-Korean liaison office, a symbolic outcome of the April 27 inter-Korean summit between Moon and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, held on the southern side of the Joint Security Area in 2018.

Cheong Wa Dae's announcement came after weeks of heated debate about the need to overhaul Moon's diplomatic and national security lineup, after Pyongyang destroyed the inter-Korean liaison office, considered a major sign of its disregard toward the past agreements between Moon and Kim for drastic improvement in inter-Korean relations.

But some experts who talked to The Korea Times, Sunday, were mostly negative in their assessment of the July 3 reshuffle, underlining its heavy focus on restoring ties with North Korea despite continued U.S. opposition that will likely lead to a wider rift in the Korea-U.S. alliance.

If the Moon administration continues rushing to improve inter-Korean relations under his new diplomatic and security team regardless of the speed of North Korea's denuclearization process, the experts particularly warned of real damage to the alliance with the U.S. Bilateral relations have already triggered concerns under the Trump administration due to the huge gaps in key bilateral issues, including the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiations for deciding Korea's share of the costs for maintaining U.S. troops here.

Geopolitical chess game

Lee Seong-hyon, director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute, pointed out the reshuffle reflects a glaring absence of a “big picture” in Cheong Wa Dae's North Korea policy by not paying due attention to international factors, such as the escalating U.S.-China rivalry.

“The reshuffle is a knee-jerk remedy to overcome the current inter-Korean stalemate. But it lacks a big picture. Both Washington and Beijing see the North Korean issue as a component of the U.S.-China geopolitical chess game. North Korea knows it. South Korea doesn't,” Lee said. “Moon is obsessed with North Korea. But North Korea is obsessed with the U.S. That's the geopolitical curse for Moon. Unfortunately, Moon is seen as a pro-China figure in Washington. As long as Moon doesn't secure Washington's blessing, his inter-Korean vision will be a limited endeavor.”

Lee added, “South Korea's improving ties with North Korea will inevitably include economic aid and resumption of joint projects that will create further tension between Seoul and Washington. Amid the deepening U.S.-China rivalry, China will welcome the disintegration of the alliance relationship.”

The expert in Korea-China relations also highlighted that the reshuffle's role will be “limited” if Moon's greater goal is to engineer another summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un, in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election.

Other experts showed concerns about the loss of credibility in Moon's foreign policy from an international perspective.

“The Moon administration should avoid the impression that North Korean threats and violence get laws changed, activists prosecuted and ministers reshuffled in Seoul. A loss in foreign policy credibility could invite further economic coercion from Beijing and more worries about the alliance in Washington,” said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “President Moon has purposefully chosen South Korean officials well-known in Pyongyang in hopes of restarting dialogue. But the Kim regime shows little interest in reconciliation and exchange, instead demanding financial benefits without denuclearization.”

Last but not least, some analysts voiced strong concerns about additional difficulties from the reshuffle for Moon to gain support for his peace drive because of the controversial backgrounds of Park and Im.

Park was jailed 2006 after being found guilty of embezzlement, and Im also served jail time as a student activist in the 1980s for allegedly violating the National Security Act.

“They are known to be controversial figures who will deepen internal division and (South-South) conflict regarding policy toward North Korea. Their drive to reignite engagement policy will be contested by the opposition, the U.S. and even North Korea. without assurance that the South Korean government can maintain a consistent and independent policy,” a professor of North Korea studies told The Korea Times on condition of anonymity.