Why doesn't Moon invite NK leader to Seoul?

By Kim Jae-kyoung

Will President Moon Jae-in accept North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s invitation to Pyongyang?

It must be a very tricky decision for Moon. If he raises the issue of denuclearization, North Korea might revert to its belligerent stance.

But if Moon opts to go to Pyongyang for talks for the sake of talks it could jeopardize the alliance between South Korea and the United States, or other allies.

William Brown, adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service, suggests Moon make a counteroffer by inviting Kim to Seoul to avoid the same old mistakes his liberal predecessors have made.

“We have seen far too many VIP trips to Pyongyang over the past decades, and every time, Pyongyang has hoodwinked the visitors into giving it something, even billions of dollars,” Brown said in an interview, citing former President Kim Dae-jung.

“I’m sure Kim Jong-un is well aware of that and in need of big money. So, Kim wants an improvement in inter-Korean ties but only to help him pursue his new ‘unification’ dream.”

He pointed out the North has “engagement” down to a fine art, knowing how to cater to foreign and South Korean egos.

“Perhaps Moon can respond by offering an invitation to Kim to come to the South, maybe suggesting a tour of a nuclear electric power plant, or to a drone factory,” Brown said. “The Olympic visits can be considered warm-ups, then, for something interesting.”

His advice came after Kim Jong-un invited President Moon to visit Pyongyang through his younger sister Kim Yo-jong who visited South Korea a week ago as part of the North’s high-level delegation to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.

Kim in search of new sources

From Brown’s perspective, Kim sending his sister to give the invitation suggests the sanctions, especially the near shutdown in China’s legal imports from the North and the cutbacks in petroleum deliveries, are having an impact, causing Kim to search for new sources of aid.

“This theory is reinforced by Kim Yo-jong’s statement that she was surprised to find herself in South Korea with so little notice, as if it was a snap decision,” he said.

Brown, who previously worked for the CIA and the National Intelligence Council, said Moon’s cautious approach to Kim’s invitation was a step in the right direction. He declined to accept the offer immediately, calling for efforts to “create the necessary conditions.”

“Moon’s answer to Kim Yo-jong was just right. It puts the ball right back into Pyongyang’s court, a part of the maximum pressure campaign one might say,” he said.

“Presumably, the necessary conditions are progress toward getting rid of the nuclear weapons, something Kim is unlikely to concede.”

Regarding talks between the U.S. and North Korea, Brown said there should be two conditions for such meetings to take place.

“My only conditions for U.S.-North Korea talks, either a summit or at a high level, would be that they are not held inside North Korea, and that they are held with real officials, not track 2 wannabes, former presidents or intelligence directors,” he said.

“If North Korea’s leadership can be brought out of the country, I think it would add to maximum pressure and might even bring about a breakthrough. Certainly the cost of a cheeseburger, even at a Trump hotel, is worth a try.”

He called on Moon to be realistic about Kim’s strategies and intentions, in order for his efforts to engage the North while not damaging relations between South Korea and the U.S.

“To understand those (Kim’s strategies and intentions), all he needs to do is read and reread Kim’s New Year’s speech for himself. Kim, very clearly, wants unification,” he said.

“I am concerned political advisers are capable of being misled by North Korean charms, especially when they think it works to their political benefit.”

Looking carefully at Washington, the Washington-based North Korea expert said Moon should remember Trump’s first instinct on Japan and Korea was that those countries, and the Europeans, should do more to protect themselves.

“He, and many Americans, on the right and the left, are tired of being the fall guy, picking up the military costs of other people’s problems,” Brown said.