High voter turnout: whose advantage?
A survey by the National Election Commission (NEC) showed 86.9 percent of people are determined to cast ballots. / Yonhap
By Park Si-soo
The voter turnout for the May 9 presidential election is expected to exceed 80 percent, higher than the previous election’s 75.8 percent, buoyed by the people’s desire to select a leader who will sweep away the deep-seated corruption and injustice revealed by the Park Geun-hye scandal.
A survey by the National Election Commission (NEC) showed 86.9 percent of people are determined to cast ballots. If the people are really that enthusiastic, it would be the second-highest voter turnout in South Korea’s democratic election history, after 89.2 percent in 1987.
“Election fever” has already become visible with last week’s two-day early voting in which a record 11.07 million people, or 26.1 percent of eligible voters, turned up at early polling stations.
A lingering question is who would benefit from the high turnout?
Every candidate claims it to be his/her own advantage. Traditionally, a high turnout is considered beneficial for liberal candidates because young voters who skew left have relatively weak enthusiasm for voting.
Leading contender Moon Jae-in of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea claims a high turnout means more liberal-minded young voters are coming out to vote, while runner-up candidate Hong Joon-pyo of the conservative Liberty Korea Party claims a high turnout means conservative elderly voters got “united and came out” to prevent what they describe as a “pro-North Korea” figure from assuming the nation’s top job.
Ahn Cheol-soo of the center-left People's Party, who is vying with Hong for runner-up, claims the situation to be a merit of his own.
Election experts are reluctant to give a clear answer. They simply said a high turnout means many of those who remained undecided until the last moment came out.
Gallup’s recent survey estimated 11 percent of eligible voters remained undecided, while another survey done by the NEC suggested the ratio was up to 30 percent.
“When it comes to election, scenario is scenario,” an expert said. “We will know the answer when the ballots are counted.”