Lee Hae-rin is a City Desk reporter at The Korea Times, covering social issues, tourism and taekwondo. She is passionate about speaking up for the rights of minorities, including women, LGBTQ+, people with disabilities and animals as well as discovering the latest makgeolli trend in town. Feel free to reach her at lhr@koreatimes.co.kr.
Next COVID-19 wave to be fueled by new variants: experts
Myeongdong in Seoul's Jung District is crowded with people, Oct. 19. Yonhap
By Lee Hae-rin
By Lee Hae-rin
Newly emerging subvariants of the coronavirus are anticipated to rise to dominance and fuel the country's upcoming fall and winter wave. The numbers of daily COVID-19 infections most recently surged here in early July, peaking with more than 180,000 cases per day in mid-August, driven mostly by Omicron subvariant BA.5. Since then, the numbers of daily infections had been gradually slowing down, but recent weeks have seen a relative uptick.
Although it is too early to determine whether the next wave has begun, the government and local health experts forecast that the country will likely see another wave of the coronavirus soon, but on a smaller scale than earlier this summer.
The Central Disease and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH) announced Friday that the basic reproduction number of the coronavirus for Korea is now 1.09. The basic reproduction number, R0 (pronounced, “R naught”), is defined as the expected number of cases directly generated by one infected person in a population where all individuals are susceptible. According to the CDSCH, it is the first time in the nine weeks since the pandemic's sixth wave peaked in mid-August that the country's R0 for COVID-19 has surpassed 1.
On Sunday, the country reported 26,256 new daily COVID-19 infections, with a cumulative total of 25,297,334 total infections to date. The daily number is more than double that of last Sunday's 11,040 infections and nearly triple that of two weeks before at 8,981.
Forecasts of the scale of the resurgence by mathematical scientists vary. According to the latest bimonthly report by the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences' COVID-19 projection model published on Oct. 19, the daily number of infections in early November could vary from 9,000 to 50,000, depending on the R0 value.
Although on a smaller scale than the wave this summer, local health experts forecast that the next wave may peak around December with the arrival of new COVID-19 variants.
According to Jung Jae-hun, a professor of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine, this week and next week may be “the lowest point between the upcoming resurgence and the current resurgence led by the BA.5 variant.” Jung wrote on Facebook, Friday, that the next surge will be fueled by the BF.7 variant, as that BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 will soon become prevalent and dominate the country's coming wave.
BF.7, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are new subvariants of the Omicron variant. The number of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 infections recently doubled last week in the U.S. and now take up 20 percent of the new infection cases there, while BF.7 has been circulating in Europe. XBB ― a combination of Omicron subvariants BA.2.10.1 and BA.2.75 and potentially the most immune-evasive variant to date ― has now been identified in 26 countries, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) on Oct. 19.
Jung added that scale of the coming resurgence led by the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants will likely not be as grave as the previous BA.5 wave, but that more subvariants may emerge before the peak of the next wave.
Kim Woo-joo, a professor of infectious medicine at Korea University Guro Hospital, pointed out that the actual number of new infections may be greater than reported, considering the fact that the country lifted travel regulations and no longer requires inbound passengers to undergo a PCR test upon arrival.
The government also predicted that there will be a COVID-19 resurgence in early December, as stated by the current administration's epidemic control consultant, Chung Ki-seok, during last Monday's briefing.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health and Welfare views it still premature to declare a resurgence, even with the recent increase in infection numbers and of the basic reproduction number.
Senior health ministry official Son Young-rae said during a regular briefing, Friday that “additional analyses are needed,” as, “There are days when I think it's doubling by day, but when I look at the weekly average, I see it as a declining trend rather than a rebound,” he said.