When will coronavirus pandemic peak?
Citizens wait in long lines to receive COVID-19 testing at a public health center in Gwangju, 250 kilometers south of Seoul, Friday, after a bus driver in the city tested positive for the virus. / Yonhap
'The current situation is like the calm before the storm'
By Jun Ji-hye
Health experts and government officials have shown differing opinions on when the ongoing second wave of COVID-19 infections will reach its peak, intensifying confusion among citizens amid growing fears over the resurgence of the virus.
While some health experts and insurance analysts said the new wave of COVID-19 appears to have already passed its peak, other experts and health authorities warned of a further spike in the number of virus patients.
Joo Young-soo, a senior official at the National Medical Center who heads the COVID-19 joint response team, said the team believes the latest wave of infections had reached its peak, at least in the Seoul metropolitan area, on Aug. 23.
“The increasing trend has started to flatten out,” he said.
Baek Soon-young, a professor from the College of Medicine at the Catholic University of Korea, agreed to some extent, saying the “explosive” increase in the number of additional cases may have been halted.
“Many people were worried that infections traced to a massive rally held in central Seoul, Aug. 15, could spread to other parts of the nation, but there has been no explosive increase in coronavirus cases outside the capital area,” he said. “But concerns still remain as there are many people who refuse to get tested, or whose whereabouts have yet to be figured out.”
JPMorgan Chase & Co issued a similar prediction in its report published Aug. 20, saying Korea's second wave of virus cases might peak by the end of this month, and subside by early November after bringing about around 7,000 new cases.
The insurance analysts said in the report that the scale of the latest wave would be smaller, compared to the first wave of infections that occurred between February and March, because the country's capability of tracing and testing patients has been strengthened, and enhanced social distancing guidelines have been implemented.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) reported 371 additional coronavirus cases for Thursday, including 359 locally transmitted infections, with the total caseload now raised to 19,077.
Among the 359 local infections, 284 patients reside in Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province.
The daily figure dropped to below 400 after the country's new virus cases spiked to a nearly six-month high of 441, Wednesday.
But other experts such as Lee Jae-gap, an infectious disease doctor at Hallym University Medical Center, warned that the public health crisis could worsen, if the government does not enforce its toughest social distancing restrictions as soon as possible.
“About 600 to 800 patients could come out every day in early September, if the government does not raise the level of social distancing to its highest,” Lee said.
Lee Moo-sik, a professor from the College of Medicine at Konyang University, also said, “The new wave is likely to reach its peak in the upcoming winter,” calling on the government to take appropriate steps to combat the virus.
The government adopted a three-tier social distancing plan on June 28, and raised the distancing guidelines from Level 1 to Level 2 for the entire country on Aug. 23, as the nation's daily new cases have been jumping by triple digits every day since Aug. 13.
Regarding various predictions about the peak of infections, KCDC Deputy Director Kwon Joon-wook said it was premature to conclude that the infections have already peaked.
“The current situation is like the calm before the storm,” he said, citing that the number of virus patients whose infection routes have yet to be identified has been increasing consistently. This could lead to more outbreaks at any time or any place, according to the authorities.
On Friday, however, the government said that it decided to keep social distancing guidelines at Level 2, being apparently wary that Level 3 guidelines would result in restraining the economy and freezing people's daily routines.
Instead, the government will begin to restrict operating hours of restaurants and bakeries in the Seoul metropolitan area, beginning Sunday, allowing them to operate until 9 p.m.
Only takeout and delivery is permitted after 9 p.m.
The government will also encourage more than half of employees working at government agencies and public institutions to work from home, and recommend private companies take similar steps.
“Adopting Level 3 social distancing guidelines will be the final card, considering its negative impact on the economy,” Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun said during a government meeting on COVID-19 response. “We will maintain Level 2 guidelines, but add several enhanced measures.”