Nam Hyun-woo has worked as a staff writer at The Korea Times since 2013, mostly covering business and politics. He currently belongs to the Business Desk where he covers topics such as emerging tech, AI, ICT and Korea's chaebol community. Prior to joining the team, he was the paper's correspondent for the presidential office of Korea during the Yoon Suk Yeol and Moon Jae-in administrations.
Seoul's 'missile sovereignty' comes as double-edged sword
gettyimagesbank
By Nam Hyun-woo
By Nam Hyun-woo
South Korea and the U.S. agreed to end the latter's guidelines that had limited Seoul's missile development programs, in terms of range and payload capacity, during the summit between President Moon Jae-in and his American counterpart President Joe Biden.
The agreement has been hailed as one of the best achievements of Moon on his U.S. trip, as it resulted in Seoul reclaiming its “missile sovereignty” for the first time in 42 years. At the same time, however, the deal might have diplomatic repercussions.
During a press conference after the May 21 summit, Moon said he was “pleased to announce the termination of the missile guidelines,” adding this stood as “a symbol and practical measure that the two countries' alliance is rock solid.”
President Moon Jae-in speaks during a press conference after a summit with his U.S. counterpart President Joe Biden at the White House, May 21 (local time). Courtesy of Cheong Wa Dae
A senior Cheong Wa Dae official called the termination of the guidelines one of the top achievements of the summit, saying Seoul has retrieved its “sovereignty in missile programs following its agreement to adopt the guidelines in 1979.”
“Our government proposed ending this program first in accordance with our view that it had lost its adequacy after four decades, and the U.S. agreed with this assessment,” the official said. “The termination appears to reflect due acknowledgement of Korea's efforts to abide by missile regimes, including the Missile Technology Control Regime and the Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation.”
Seoul's missile development programs faced headwinds after the guidelines were established in 1979. It agreed to bring in or develop missiles under U.S. control in order to gain related technologies ― but the agreement limited the maximum capabilities of South Korea's missiles to a range of 180 kilometers with a payload of 500 kilograms.
Since then, Seoul and Washington have had a series of talks to ease the restrictions that have produced several revisions, with the Moon government holding the most recent three rounds of negotiations.
The first revision came in January 2001 when the two countries agreed to increase the maximum range to 300 kilometers and warhead weight to 500 kilograms, and excluded cruise missiles from range limits if the warhead weighed less than 500 kilograms. In 2012, the range limit for non-cruise missiles was extended to 800 kilometers, and the payload cap was lifted in 2017.
Last year, Washington allowed Seoul to develop solid-propellant space rockets, and the guidelines were scrapped during the latest summit.
Hyunmoo II ballistic missiles blast off during a combined ROK-U.S. military exercise at an undisclosed location in South Korea, July 29, 2017. Courtesy of Joint Chiefs of Staff
The termination of the missile guidelines is certain to help South Korea achieve a breakthrough in developing ballistic missiles. Last year, it developed the latest Hyunmoo IV ballistic missiles that can fly up to 800 kilometers while carrying a payload weighing 2,000 kilograms, just three years after the payload limit was abolished.
Reportedly, the country has the technological capability to increase the Hyunmoo IV's range by trading off its payload weight, or to develop medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) whose range lies between 1,000 and 3,000 kilometers.
South Korea has already deployed Hyunmoo IIIB and IIIC cruise missiles, which have 1,000 kilometer and 1,500 kilometer ranges, respectively, but ballistic missiles are believed to bear greater strategic significance because cruise missiles ― flying at low altitudes and speeds ― are easier to intercept.
South Korea's space program is also expected to pick up momentum following the termination of the guidelines.
During the summit, Moon and Biden agreed to strengthen the two countries' partnership in civil space exploration, science and aeronautics research.
In a follow-up to the agreement, South Korea signed the Artemis Accords on Thursday, becoming the 10th member country of the pact, which is comprised of international principles for the Artemis Program.
Led by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Artemis Program is aimed at landing the first woman and the next man on the Moon by 2024. For the program, signatories to the accords agree that their cooperative activities should be peaceful, transparent and interoperable. Member countries are the U.S., Japan, the U.K., Italy, Australia, Canada, Luxembourg, the United Arab Emirates and Ukraine.
South Korea plans to launch a lunar orbiter in 2022 before making a landing on the moon by 2030.
gettyimagesbank
Strings attached?
Though the termination of the guidelines is welcome overall, it is also anticipated to cause some diplomatic fallout, particularly involving China, as South Korean ballistic missiles can now be targeted at major Chinese cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, and could serve as a U.S. tool to contain China.
The government is denying the allegations that the termination “did not take into account the possible impact on neighboring countries,” but experts say the agreement appears to have come with strings attached.
“The reason why South Korea had an 800 kilometer limit was to rule out the possibility of covering the Chinese and Japanese capitals,” said Shin In-kyun, a defense analyst and an affiliated professor at Kyonggi University Graduate School of North Korean Studies.
“With the 800 kilometer range alone, South Korea could strike the entire North Korean region. The termination means South Korean missiles can officially reach major Chinese cities,” he said. “The highlight of the summit was having South Korea included in the U.S. strategy to contain China.”
Shin added that this should be understood as diplomatic leverage rather than something that would actually be used.
“South Korea is bound to have weaker economic leverage compared to China or Japan because of the size of its economy and population. When it comes to military forces, however, this is not the case,” he said. “If you look at inter-Korean relations, South Korea overwhelms North Korea in terms of its economy and conventional arms; but the North is exercising its influence in the region's diplomacy with its nuclear arsenal. South Korea was determined to officially possess MRBM and three-stage rockets, and this should be interpreted as improving Seoul's diplomatic leverage.”
From the perspective of the U.S., the agreement is an opportunity to contain China without exerting much effort, the experts said, citing friction between South Korea and China in 2017 over the deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here.
A U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system is seen at a base in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, in this Nov. 29, 2017, file photo. Yonhap
“There have been observations that the U.S. is seeking to deploy mid-range missiles in East Asia, and South Korea could be one of the locations,” said Kim Yeol-soo, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs. “If that is the case, the South Korea-China friction seen during the THAAD deployment could be replicated. As Seoul is able to develop its own missiles, it can claim its own missile sovereignty as well as ease U.S. pressure to deploy its missiles here.”
After Seoul decided to deploy the THAAD battery in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, China imposed restrictions on its relations with the South, limiting group tours to Seoul and strictly regulating South Korean companies' business in China.
“The agreement is favorable for both Seoul and Washington. From the perspective of the U.S., it can comply with South Korea's requests, while at the same time increasing its deterrence against China,” said Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Korea University's Department of North Korea Studies. “Amid the escalating tension between the U.S. and China, North Korea is deploying advanced missiles. Against this backdrop, there is no need for the U.S. to impose restrictions on South Korea's missile development programs.”