Analysis Moon-Trump summit unlikely to speed up OPCON transfer
Flags of the United Nations and the Republic of Korea wave at the inter-Korean Demilitarized Zone in this May file photo. The role of the United States-led United Nations Command in South Korea has recently become a subject of debate as Seoul is accelerating the transfer of wartime operational control from Washington to Seoul. Yonhap
By Jung Da-min
As the Moon administration is aiming to complete the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) of Korean troops from Washington to Seoul by 2022, some hurdles have resurfaced, including the denuclearization of North Korea and the future role of the U.S.-led United Nations Command (UNC) stationed in South Korea.
The prospect for the denuclearization talks remain uncertain, with U.S. President Donald Trump not elaborating on the specifics of his strategy for the upcoming working-level talks with North Korea during his ninth summit with President Moon Jae-in held early Tuesday (KST) in New York.
Experts say the Trump administration is not likely to raise an issue over the OPCON transfer citing lack of denuclearization progress, as Seoul and Washington reached a conditional agreement on the matter over a long period of time back in 2006.
“Seoul and Washington are pushing ahead with the conditions-based wartime OPCON transfer in close cooperation with each other,” Seoul's Ministry of National Defense spokeswoman Choi Hyun-soo told reporters during a Sept. 16 press briefing, adding the wartime OPCON transfer will be conducted when the conditions are met.
The three key conditions are ― acquiring key military capabilities to lead the CFC; securing initial response capabilities to counter North Korea's nuclear and missile threats while U.S. forces offer and operate extended deterrence and strategic assets such as U.S. B-52 bombers; and guaranteeing security circumstances on the Korean Peninsula.
“The OPCON transfer is likely to be proceeded in the way the South Korean government intends but the government should consider whether it is a reasonable choice as the North Korean nuclear conflict remains in place,” said Shin Beom-chul, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
The South Korean government is facing growing challenges centering on concerns over the North's denuclearization.
One of the latest calls from the opposition included a request submitted to Cheong Wa Dae last month by former deputy commanders of the Republic of Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) ― South Korean colonels in the reserves ― that the wartime OPCON transfer should be put on hold until the denuclearization talks with North Korea see visible progress.
Working-level discussions between Washington and Pyongyang's chief negotiators would resume “in a couple of weeks,” raising some expectation that the two sides would reach a clear definition of denuclearization.
Controversy over the role of UNC
There is another issue surrounding the OPCON transfer, with some expressing concerns that it could be meaningless with the U.S. expanding the role of the U.S.-led United Nations Command (UNC) in South Korea, committed to maintaining the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.
OPCON was first transferred from South Korean forces to the UNC in 1950 during the Korean War and later transferred to the ROK-U.S. CFC in 1978 when it was established due to growing calls from the communist camp to deactivate the U.S.-led UNC.
In 1994, South Korean troops got back the peacetime OPCON. But the transfer of wartime OPCON has repeatedly been delayed due to the lingering nuclear threats from North Korea.
Along with these developments over the decades, the scope of roles among the future CFC, the UNC and USFK after the transfer of OPCON have remained controversial.
Currently, the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) chief also heads the UNC as well as the CFC. The UNC chief commands peacekeeping operations and can ask the CFC commander for support in times of emergency as the UNC has little effective strength.
After the wartime OPCON transfer, a South Korean general will be appointed as chief of the CFC. A U.S. general will take the position of deputy commander, which has been held by a South Korean general.
Military observers say the U.S. wants to reinforce the operative functions of the UNC to yield influence over the CFC at the end.
According to recent media reports on the Korea-U.S. Combined Command Post Training conducted from Aug. 11 to 20, the South Korean and U.S. militaries revealed differences over the scope of the U.S.-led UNC's wartime OPCON after the joint exercise. It was the first time the two militaries conducted a joint drill envisioning the transfer of wartime OPCON, testing South Korean military's Initial Operative Capability (IOC).
“The UNC has a firm will to secure a commanding position for crisis management in times of emergency on the peninsula,” said Choi Yoon-cheol, an assistant professor at Sangmyung University's Department of National Defense.
Observers also highlighted Washington's recent moves to “revitalize” the UNC by increasing personnel and appointing generals from third countries as deputy UNC chiefs.
Lieut. Gen. Wayne D. Eyre of the Canadian Army took office as the first non-American deputy commander of the UNC in July 2018, followed by Vice Adm. Stuart Mayer of the Royal Australian Navy in July this year.
“The South Korean military should address concerns over the future relationship between itself and the UNC while keeping the ROK-U.S. alliance,” Choi said.