US may opt for pre-emptive strike against N. Korea

Hardliners gaining ground in Washington

By Rachel Lee

Calls in the United States for a pre-emptive strike against North Korea are growing amid escalating tension after Pyongyang said it was apparently ready to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at any time from any location.

Hardliners in the Donald Trump administration — who are leading the country’s security and diplomacy agenda — have argued that a pre-emptive strike and regime change may be among options in dealing with North Korea, which is determined to develop nuclear weapons.

At a hearing on confronting North Korean threats last week, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker called them “one of the most urgent security challenges” facing the U.S. He pointed out the current approach was “not working” and the urgency of the threats necessitated that Washington spend some time “thinking outside the box about U.S. strategy toward North Korea.”

Corker then said: “For example, does the pursuit of North Korean denuclearization remain a realistic policy objective in the near-term? Alternatively, should the United States consider a policy approach that proactively pursues regime change in North Korea by non-kinetic means?”

The chairman believed there could be opportunities to “exploit pockets of regime instability” as the recent defection of a high-level North Korean diplomat suggests.

“In addition, should the United States be prepared to pre-emptively strike a North Korean ICBM on a launch platform?” the chairman asked.

U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis, who was on a two-day visit to Seoul last week, is one of the hardliners alongside Corker in the Trump administration.

“Any attack on the United States, or our allies, will be defeated, and any use of nuclear weapons would be met with a response that would be effective and overwhelming,” Mattis said.

President Trump also advocated a surgical strike against Pyongyang’s nuclear facilities in his book published when he first ran for president in 2000.

“I don’t advocate thermonuclear war, but if negotiations fail, I advocate a surgical strike against these outlaws before they pose a real threat,” Trump said.

Observers here see the hard-line approach as a reflection of a sense of urgency, and warned that a pre-emptive strike could lead to war on the Korean Peninsula.

“A pre-emptive strike on North Korea should be launched only when there is a clear sign of Pyongyang firing an ICBM, but any preventive action could have disastrous consequences, leaving scars on us without making any change in the situation.” Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES), said.

The North has a large number of 170mm self propelled guns and 240mm multiple rocket launching systems deployed north of the Demilitarized Zone, which could kill at least 600,000 people in the South if a war breaks out, according to a recent joint South Korea-U.S. forces simulation.

As well as the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here planned for this year despite protests from China and Russia, Defense Minister Han Min-koo and Mattis agreed to continue to discuss whether the U.S. will regularly deploy strategic assets, such as nuclear-capable bombers, to South Korea as part of measures to enhance its extended deterrence.

The issue has been regularly mentioned since it was brought up during the annual Security Consultative Meeting in October between Han and former U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter.